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The LeadEleven weeks after the start of the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed to naval traffic, bleeding the global economy far beyond the Gulf. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains an iron grip over this narrow, strategic waterway, while a corresponding United States naval blockade on Iranian ports has failed to reopen it.Before the war began, between 120 and 140 ships travelled through the strait each day, about half of them oil tankers carrying some 20 million barrels of oil between them. Now, only a few vessels whose owners have negotiated with the IRGC are permitted to pass.The Strategic Control of HormuzOn Wednesday, Iran said it coordinated the transit of 26 vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours, two days after announcing the formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), a new body to provide "real-time updates" on operations in the strait.Since the announcement of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran in April, Iran has been working on formalising a mechanism to charge a transit fee from ships crossing the critical chokepoint, through which 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are shipped during peacetime.Tehran has reportedly already charged fees as high as $2m per ship for transit since the war started. Even though countries opposing Tehran say this is illegal, it may still be less expensive than the overall cost of the closure of the strait each day.The Economic Cost of BlockadeNearly one-fifth of global oil and LNG exports were shipped by Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz before the US and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, triggering the Iranian closure of the waterway. The strait is the only waterway linking Gulf producers to the open ocean – there is no other route through which they can ship exports.About 20.3 million barrels per day of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime – nearly 27 percent of global maritime oil trade. The lion's share of that crude went to Asian markets.Global LNG trade has been similarly hard hit. On the day before the war broke out, Brent crude – the global benchmark for oil prices – closed at $72.48 per barrel. After Iran closed the waterway on March 4 and began attacks on vessels attempting to sail through, traffic came to a standstill, stranding about 2,000 ships on either side of the strait.In terms of lost oil revenues, this amounts to $114.8bn of losses per day. About 10 billion cubic feet of LNG per day also used to pass through the strait, worth a further $7.8bn.The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Transit FeesFor hundreds of ships stranded in the Gulf with thousands of sailors on board, the cost of remaining anchored is steep, including crew wages, loan repayments, repair and management, coupled with inflated war risk premiums.In turn, Iran has reportedly been charging up to $2m for authorisation to pass. Experts say many will see this as worthwhile purely in terms of monetary cost."There is no doubt that paying Iran is cheaper than a continuous blockade because a sitting tanker bleeds money," said Nader Habibi, an Iranian American economist."It makes sense from an economic point of view, but it is not politically feasible," he added. "The companies are under pressure from the US sanctions and not to make arrangements with Iran. This is not just a purely economic cost-benefit analysis, but long-term considerations that are taken into account."International Legal PerspectivesInternational law protects free transit through strategic waters such as natural straits like Hormuz, barring countries from imposing passage tolls even where the waterways fall entirely into territorial waters, like in the case of Hormuz.However, services such as security controls, inspections and insurance regimes can be charged for. Chargeable fees also partly depend on whether a waterway is a man-made passageway or a natural one.These are three different precedents in maritime traffic flow:Panama Canal: An artificial waterway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Vessels pass through a unique system of locks that raise and lower vessels across elevated terrain. Since Panama built, maintains and operates the canal, it can charge transit fees based on vessel size, cargo capacity and booking priority. These range from several hundred thousand dollars per transit to some slots sold for millions of dollars.Suez Canal: Another artificial canal, linking the Mediterranean and Red seas. Egypt charges transit fees for the use of canal infrastructure, maintenance and traffic management services through the narrow waterway. Container ships and oil tankers pay from several hundred thousand dollars to more than one million dollars per voyage.Turkiye's Bosporus Strait and Dardanelles: These are different because they are natural straits, rather than man-made canals. Turkiye charges for navigation-related services such as lighthouse operations, rescue readiness, medical support and traffic management – and tightly controls ship scheduling and navigation.Regional Cooperation PossibilitiesIran's newly-formed PGSA published a new map of Hormuz, stretching from Kuh-e Mubarak in Iran to south of Fujairah, in the UAE, at the eastern entrance of the strait, and from the tip of Qeshm Island to Umm al-Quwain at the western entrance.Given how the Iran war has spilled over into the Gulf region – with the UAE taking the brunt of Iranian strikes – economist Mohammad Reza Farzanegan said "regional cooperation with Iran is the most realistic path to stable transit through the Strait of Hormuz."The UAE, Oman, Qatar and Iran will have to work together because their economies require it, he argued. A workable arrangement could include a joint maritime authority, shared monitoring, emergency coordination, environmental protection and service-based contributions for maintaining safe passage."This would give Iran a recognised role in the security of the waterway while giving Persian Gulf economies more predictability," Farzanegan added. "Such a framework is also more realistic than relying on external military enforcement, which has been more a source of trouble for these states."The Future OutlookWhile it may seem that the economics of the closure of the strait are currently skewed towards Iran, Aniseh Tabrizi, an associate fellow on the Middle East and North Africa Programme at think tank Chatham House, noted that "the economics by itself is not going to be the driver to change calculation or move from the current standpoint."She emphasized that Iran and the US need to reach a "diplomatic compromise, with other calculations linked in to the economic factor", before there can be an end to the energy supply crisis.Farzanegan added that if the world expects stable access to the Strait of Hormuz, then paying Iran could well be accepted as the price of keeping the vital waterway predictable. "From an economic perspective, a negotiated transit arrangement [with Iran] now makes more sense than continued closure," he concluded.

The Counter‑suit: A JPMorgan Banker Fights BackIn a New York state court filing on Tuesday night, Lorna Hajdini—an executive director at JPMorgan Chase—sought damages against former colleague Chirayu Rana, alleging that his sexual‑assault allegations were false and malicious. Hajdini Accuses Rana of Fabricating Sexual‑Assault ClaimsThe countersuit contends that Rana invented accusations that he was raped and drugged by Hajdini to generate press coverage, cause personal pain, and extract millions of dollars from both her and the bank. It states that Hajdini has been "mocked, ridiculed, and harassed around the clock" and that the false statements have "wreaked havoc" on her life. Rana’s original complaint, filed 27 April, described alleged non‑consensual activity and threats using racial epithets. Hajdini denies any supervisory role, use of racial slurs, or coercion. JPMorgan is also a defendant in Rana’s lawsuit. Financial Stakes and Settlement Offers Highlight Corporate RiskThe bank disclosed that on May 6 2026 it attempted to settle the dispute by offering $1 million to Rana, a figure reported by the Wall Street Journal. No monetary amount is specified in Hajdini’s countersuit, which seeks unspecified damages for defamation and emotional distress. Reputational Fallout Extends Beyond the Two PartiesBoth parties have faced intense public scrutiny, with memes and jokes circulating online. JPMorgan issued a statement supporting Hajdini’s right to defend her reputation and reiterated its belief that the allegations lack merit. Potential Legal Trajectory and Implications for Wall‑Street CultureWith no comment from Rana’s legal team and the case still early in the litigation process, outcomes remain uncertain. The dispute underscores heightened sensitivity around workplace harassment claims in the financial sector and may prompt firms to reassess internal reporting and settlement strategies.

The latest S&P; Global purchasing managers' index shows UK services activity slipping to a 48.5 reading in May, marking the steepest drop in a decade and signalling a broader economic slowdown.Sharp Drop in UK Services PMI Marks Decade‑Worst DeclineIndex fell to 48.5 in May, down from 52.6 in April.Lowest reading since January 2021 and the lowest since July 2016 when Covid data are excluded.Services sector accounts for roughly 80% of UK GDP.PMI Numbers Reveal Contraction Below Growth ThresholdThe composite output index, which blends manufacturing and services data, dropped below the critical 50‑point mark, indicating contraction. Economists had forecast a reading of 51.6, making the actual figure notably worse.Payrolls fell for the 20th consecutive month, echoing ONS data that showed a loss of 100,000 payrolled employees in April.Manufacturing showed a modest rebound, hitting a three‑month high as firms front‑loaded orders.Broader Economic Implications for GDP and Monetary PolicyAndrew Wishart of Berenberg warned that a sustained PMI slump could push quarterly GDP growth from 0.6% in Q1 to -0.2% in Q2. Meanwhile, the Bank of England may keep its policy rate at 3.75% after recent inflation data showed a slowdown to 2.8% in April and wage growth easing to 3.4%.Outlook: Potential Further Slowdown Amid Geopolitical TensionsAnalysts attribute the downturn primarily to the ongoing Iran war and heightened uncertainty around Keir Starmer's leadership. If these pressures persist, the services sector could see continued job cuts and reduced spending, while manufacturers may face tighter order books, as noted by the CBI.Overall, the flash PMI suggests a cautious near‑term outlook for the UK economy, with policymakers likely to adopt a wait‑and‑see stance on interest‑rate adjustments.

Iran Scrutinizes the Latest US Offer Amid Growing Pakistani Diplomatic PushTehran confirmed it has received US views on its peace framework and is currently reviewing them, according to Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei. The statement arrives as Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir readies a visit to Tehran, and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi makes a second trip in less than a week to discuss the proposal.Key Numbers Shaping the Negotiation LandscapeThe war entered its nearly three‑month phase, with a ceasefire in place for six weeks.Iran’s original demand list comprises 14 points, including control of the Strait of Hormuz, reparations, sanctions relief, frozen‑asset release, and US troop withdrawal.The US naval blockade, launched in mid‑April, has resulted in the boarding of at least five vessels; a recent incident saw a ship searched and redirected by Central Command.Pakistan facilitated the only direct US‑Iran talks in April and now hosts the military chief for “talks and consultations”.Strategic Implications for the Region and Global PowersAnalysts note that Iran has seized the initiative by shifting focus to the strategic chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz rather than its nuclear program, forcing Washington to defend its position. The US, wary of appearing weaker than it was on February 26 when it walked away from talks, is attempting to re‑center the nuclear issue. Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warns that any renewed aggression could expand the conflict beyond the region.What Comes Next? Scenarios for a Fragile Peace ProcessProfessor Scott Lucas of University College Dublin predicts a settlement is possible but cautions that President Donald Trump remains unpredictable, keeping the risk of renewed strikes alive. If the US accepts Iran’s 14‑point framework, a durable cease‑fire could emerge, unlocking the Strait for global shipping. Conversely, a failure to bridge gaps may see the blockade intensify and the conflict spill over, drawing in regional actors.

The Israeli Desire for War While the United States backs away from threats to resume bombing Iran if it does not agree to a peace deal, Israel’s political establishment is reportedly itching for war. Leaked Plans and Public Reaction Shimon Riklin, an anchor for the right-wing Israeli Channel 14, blurted out apparently confidential plans about a renewed attack on Tehran, which included the location of what he claimed was a uranium storage facility that could be targeted. The Data Analysis A poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute in early May showed that a majority of Israelis believed a premature end to the war ran counter to their country’s security interests, while a similar percentage thought that a resumption of the conflict is likely. The Impact Analysis For Netanyahu, the April 8 ceasefire – agreed with little Israeli involvement – has proven politically costly and, analysts say, unnerved a public conditioned to view Iran as an existential threat. The Prediction Ultimately, despite the broad political support for a renewed war with Israel, there are still limits to what Netanyahu can do. “This stops when the US says it stops,” Levy said.

Nvidia delivered another record quarter, beating Wall Street expectations and igniting fresh optimism for AI‑driven growth across Asian markets. Record Nvidia Quarter Fueled by AI Chip Demand The chip designer reported an 85% year‑on‑year revenue increase to $81.6bn for the three months ended April, marking its 15th straight quarter of topping forecasts. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted physical AI and robotics as the next growth frontier. Revenue Surge and Forecast Numbers Highlight Growth Revenue: $81.6bn (+85% YoY) Guidance: $91bn for the current quarter (vs. average market expectation of $86bn) Share reaction: down 1% in after‑hours trading Ripple Effect on Asian Equity Markets and Tech Giants The earnings beat lifted sentiment in Asia: the South Korean Kospi jumped 9%, while Taiwan’s index rose 3.3%, ending a four‑day decline. Shares of LG Electronics and Hyundai Mobis surged more than 20% after Huang’s remarks. Outlook: Sustainability of Nvidia’s Growth and Market Sentiment Analysts caution that maintaining such explosive growth will be challenging, especially as the company faces heightened expectations and competitive pressure. The market will watch whether Nvidia can translate its AI leadership into consistent earnings or if the current rally is a short‑term boost. Key Economic Calendar for the Day 9:00 BST – Eurozone flash PMI 9:30 BST – UK flash PMI 11:30 BST – UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves on cost‑of‑living measures 13:30 BST – US jobless claims 15:00 BST – Eurozone consumer confidence 16:00 BST – BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speech in Sheffield

The Rise of Secondhand Shopping Once the preserve of jumble sales and charity shops, “preloved” fashion and homewares are now leading style and shopping trends in the UK. After the rapid growth of online retail, Britain is now witnessing “the normalisation of secondhand”, according to Adam Jay, the chief executive of Vinted’s main marketplace arm. Vinted's Expansion Beyond Fashion The UK is at the forefront of an international revolution, jostling for position with France to be Vinted’s biggest market, and is also one of its fastest growing markets, as the online marketplace moves beyond just selling clothes and into everything from smartphones and books to rugs. The Data Analysis Vinted was valued at €8bn (£7bn) in April when it sold €880m in shares. Sales through the site hit €10.8bn last year. Vinted generated €1.1bn in revenue, with net profits of €62m in 2025. Sales in Britain rose 47% last year. The Impact Analysis Vinted, Shein and Temu are all growing for “fundamentally the same reason”, which is “because it’s cheap and easy. Our main competitor is new [products].” Vinted shoppers save an average 72% on the price of buying an equivalent new item. The Prediction “I see a deep and sustained change in how people buy and how people think about things that they own,” says Jay. “We want people to be thinking about how they can give every item as long as possible life. Don’t allow things to sit in the back of the cupboard for years and years untouched. Get them to someone who’s going to love them, wear them, use them.”

Nvidia's Record-Breaking Revenue Nvidia announced another record revenue figure after market close on Wednesday, reporting financial results for the quarter ending April 26. Over those three months, the company brought in $81.6 billion in revenue (up 20% from the previous quarter) and a record $75.2 billion in data center revenue. On the strength of that revenue, the company is authorizing $80 billion in share repurchases. The Blackwell Architecture's Widespread Adoption “Our Blackwell architecture is everywhere, adopted and deployed by every major hyperscaler, every cloud provider, and every major model maker,” said Nvidia CFO Colette Kress. Revenue Growth and Projections Notably, Nvidia did project a slowdown in revenue growth, forecasting $91 billion in revenue for the next quarter, which will be 12% growth. Impact of Chinese Exports Chinese exports did not make any significant impact on the company’s earnings. While H200s have been approved for US export, “we have yet to generate any revenue, and we are uncertain whether any imports will be allowed into [China],” Kress said. Nvidia's Investments in Startups One surprise was the sheer volume of Nvidia’s stakes in privately held companies (listed in the filing as as “non-marketable equity securities”), which nearly doubled between January and April. The company began the quarter with $22 billion in privately held stakes, but ended with $43 billion, driven primarily by $18.5 billion in purchases over the course of the quarter. The previous quarter had seen only $649 million of equivalent purchases. Future Investments and Commitments Notably, that figure does not include Nvidia’s recent investment in publicly traded companies like Corning and IREN, nor does it reflect future commitments that have not yet closed. Notably, Nvidia committed to investing $30 billion in OpenAI in February, although the precise structure of the deal was not disclosed. Nvidia's Growing Impact On a call discussing the results, Jensen Huang emphasized the broad scope of Nvidia’s impact, including a pending buildout with Anthropic. “The amount of capacity we’re going to bring online for Anthropic this year and next year is going to be quite significant,” Huang told investors on a call. “Our coverage for Anthropic had been largely zero until this.”

The Chancellor's Cost-of-Living Package Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to promise free summer bus rides for children and cut tariffs on some food imports as part of a package aimed at easing the cost of living crisis. The Great British Summer Savings Scheme The offer of free bus rides for children aged 15 and under during August will form part of what Reeves is calling the 'Great British summer savings scheme'. Before the speech, Reeves said: 'My number one priority is protecting households from rising costs. This summer I want every family to be able to enjoy themselves, that's why we're launching the Great British summer savings scheme, and why we're helping kids with free bus travel throughout August.' Food Tariff Cuts and Economic Impact Reeves will also outline plans to remove tariffs on imports of a list of foods, including biscuits, chocolates, and dried fruits, in the hope of cutting prices for consumers. The Treasury will consult on the details. The measures come as the UK faces an expected rise in inflation later this year, partly due to the Iran conflict. The Road Ahead Reeves's hopes of an economic upturn have been dashed by the Iran conflict, which is widely expected to slow growth and push up inflation. Nevertheless, she is keen to press home the argument that she has 'the right plan' for the economy. With UK inflation falling to 2.8% in April, Reeves's team is highlighting the positive impact of previous measures to reduce household energy bills.