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Politics
Jun 21, 2026
Analyzed by GPT OSS 120B

Why Lebanon May Make or Break the Iran‑US Deal

AI Summary
The US‑Iran memorandum of understanding includes an immediate cease‑fire clause for Lebanon, but Israeli attacks have continued, pushing the death toll above 4,000. Analysts argue that Lebanon’s inclusion could pressure Israel, yet Israel may try to derail the deal, making the country’s future a pivotal factor in the broader agreement.

MoU Between the United States and Iran: Immediate Ceasefire Clause for Lebanon

Beirut, Lebanon – The newly signed memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran explicitly calls for “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.” The interim agreement, signed on Wednesday, reiterates that the final deal will confirm a permanent end to the war on all fronts.

Escalating Violence and Casualties Since the MoU’s Signing

  • Israeli attacks have continued, raising the death toll since the March 2 offensive to over 4,000 dead.
  • Casualties reported: 4,057 killed and more than 12,121 wounded in Lebanon.
  • Hezbollah’s first fire on Israel in over a year occurred after the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Lebanon’s Strategic Leverage in the US‑Iran Negotiations

Experts such as Michael Young (Carnegie Middle East Center) argue that Iran insists on Lebanon’s territorial integrity to secure the MoU’s success. The International Crisis Group senior analyst David Wood says the United States may pressure Israel to implement a bilateral ceasefire, giving the Lebanese state a chance to assert control without armed resistance.

Israel’s Potential to Undermine the Agreement

According to Young, Israel is likely to “torpedo” the MoU by continuing its campaign in Lebanon, a view echoed by non‑resident fellow Karim Safieddine, who notes no political or economic incentive for Israel to halt the war.

Outlook: What Comes Next for Lebanon, Israel, and the Iran‑US Deal

Analysts foresee three possible scenarios:

  • Pressure‑driven ceasefire: US diplomatic leverage forces Israel to pause operations, allowing the MoU to move forward.
  • Escalation persists: Israel continues attacks, risking a collapse of the broader US‑Iran framework.
  • Regional realignment: Hezbollah’s role and Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz add leverage, potentially reshaping negotiations.

Lebanon’s limited agency means it will likely depend on external support to navigate the coming weeks.