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Economy
Jun 17, 2026
Analyzed by GPT OSS 120B

Trump‑Iran Deal Reopens Strait of Hormuz, but Shipping Safety Remains Uncertain

AI Summary
A preliminary US‑Iran agreement announced by Donald Trump has technically reopened the Strait of Hormuz, yet only a handful of vessels have resumed transit. Shipping firms, insurers and regional powers remain wary of mines, toll disputes and lingering security risks, suggesting a gradual return to normalcy.

Preliminary US‑Iran Deal Signals Potential Reopening of the Strait

The announcement on Sunday by Donald Trump of a preliminary cease‑fire with Iran was hailed as a breakthrough for global energy markets, prompting an immediate drop in oil prices. While political leaders declared the waterway “wide open,” real‑world ship movements have been far slower.

Limited Ship Movements Show Cautious Early Response

Marine traffic data from MarineTraffic reveal that, three days after the deal, only seven vessels have crossed the strait, including a few Iranian tankers marking the first crude exports in two months. Meanwhile, more than 550 ships remain stranded on either side, awaiting clearance.

  • Pre‑war average: 120‑140 ships per day, carrying roughly 20 million barrels of oil.
  • Post‑deal (first 72 h): 7 transits recorded.
  • Ships awaiting passage: > 550.

Traffic Numbers and Insurance Premiums Reveal Economic Stakes

Beyond raw vessel counts, the financial implications are stark. War‑risk insurance premiums, which surged to as high as 5 % of hull value during hostilities, have fallen back to a range of 1‑3 %, still well above the pre‑crisis level of 0.25 %. The elevated cost structure continues to deter operators.

  • Pre‑war premium: ~0.25 % of hull value.
  • War‑time peak: up to 5 %.
  • Current level: 1‑3 %.

Security Concerns and Toll Debates Shape Future Shipping Landscape

Three intertwined risks dominate the post‑deal environment:

  • Mines: Both sides accuse the other of laying underwater mines; a verified, mine‑free corridor could take about two months to clear.
  • Tolls: Iran has hinted at charging fees for coordinated transit, a move contested by the US and GCC states under international law.
  • Insurance: Insurers remain reluctant to underwrite voyages without a sustained period of security, which analysts estimate could require four months of incident‑free operation.

Senior equity analyst Haider Anjum (Jyske Bank) stresses that “shipowners need to see actual physical security and stability over a longer period” before risk premiums normalize.

Forecast: Gradual Normalisation Over the Next Several Months

Experts anticipate a phased return to pre‑war traffic levels, contingent on three conditions:

  • Successful clearance of suspected mines (~2 months).
  • Demonstrated absence of hostile engagements for at least four months.
  • Resolution of the toll dispute, likely through diplomatic pressure rather than outright sanctions.

If these benchmarks are met, the Strait could approach its historic throughput by mid‑2027, restoring a critical conduit for global oil supplies and stabilising related shipping markets.