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Preliminary US‑Iran Deal Signals Potential Reopening of the StraitThe announcement on Sunday by Donald Trump of a preliminary cease‑fire with Iran was hailed as a breakthrough for global energy markets, prompting an immediate drop in oil prices. While political leaders declared the waterway “wide open,” real‑world ship movements have been far slower.Limited Ship Movements Show Cautious Early ResponseMarine traffic data from MarineTraffic reveal that, three days after the deal, only seven vessels have crossed the strait, including a few Iranian tankers marking the first crude exports in two months. Meanwhile, more than 550 ships remain stranded on either side, awaiting clearance.Pre‑war average: 120‑140 ships per day, carrying roughly 20 million barrels of oil.Post‑deal (first 72 h): 7 transits recorded.Ships awaiting passage: > 550.Traffic Numbers and Insurance Premiums Reveal Economic StakesBeyond raw vessel counts, the financial implications are stark. War‑risk insurance premiums, which surged to as high as 5 % of hull value during hostilities, have fallen back to a range of 1‑3 %, still well above the pre‑crisis level of 0.25 %. The elevated cost structure continues to deter operators.Pre‑war premium: ~0.25 % of hull value.War‑time peak: up to 5 %.Current level: 1‑3 %.Security Concerns and Toll Debates Shape Future Shipping LandscapeThree intertwined risks dominate the post‑deal environment:Mines: Both sides accuse the other of laying underwater mines; a verified, mine‑free corridor could take about two months to clear.Tolls: Iran has hinted at charging fees for coordinated transit, a move contested by the US and GCC states under international law.Insurance: Insurers remain reluctant to underwrite voyages without a sustained period of security, which analysts estimate could require four months of incident‑free operation.Senior equity analyst Haider Anjum (Jyske Bank) stresses that “shipowners need to see actual physical security and stability over a longer period” before risk premiums normalize.Forecast: Gradual Normalisation Over the Next Several MonthsExperts anticipate a phased return to pre‑war traffic levels, contingent on three conditions:Successful clearance of suspected mines (~2 months).Demonstrated absence of hostile engagements for at least four months.Resolution of the toll dispute, likely through diplomatic pressure rather than outright sanctions.If these benchmarks are met, the Strait could approach its historic throughput by mid‑2027, restoring a critical conduit for global oil supplies and stabilising related shipping markets.

Iran has started to permit a limited but increasing number of commercial vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, as indicated by ship tracking data. On Monday, eight non-Iranian flagged vessels were detected in the strategic waterway. This represents a notable increase, with MarineTraffic recording nine transits on Monday and Sunday, compared to just five over the preceding two days. According to Michelle Wiese Bockmann, an analyst at Windward, the growing number of ships rerouting via Iran's territorial waters suggests that Tehran is granting 'permission-based transits to friendly countries.' The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage that normally carries about one-fifth of global oil supplies, has seen traffic plummet by more than 95 percent since the onset of the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. This drastic reduction has led to a surge in oil prices, which have risen above $100 per barrel, an increase of over 40 percent. Iranian officials have issued mixed messages regarding the strait's status. Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi stated that the strait was 'open, but closed to our enemies'. Conversely, a spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned earlier in the month that any ship attempting passage would be set ablaze. The situation has drawn international attention, with US President Donald Trump asserting that Washington does not require other countries' assistance to secure shipping traffic through the strait. Meanwhile, the US military reported dropping bunker buster bombs on 'hardened' Iranian missile sites located near the strait, citing the risk these posed to international shipping.