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World Economy
Apr 16, 2026

Sudan's Economy in Ruins: 3 Years of War Cost $18.8 Billion and Counting

AI Summary
Three years into its civil war, Sudan faces unprecedented devastation with over 40,000 killed, 14 million displaced, and extensive damage to infrastructure. The war has caused an estimated $18.8 billion loss in GDP by 2043, even under optimistic peace scenarios.

Sudan, one of the world's most impoverished countries, has been ravaged by a civil war that began in 2023. The conflict, driven by a power struggle between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has left the nation unrecognizable. Over 40,000 people have been killed, and about 14 million – a quarter of the population – have been forced to flee their homes. Civilian infrastructure across the country has been extensively damaged.

“We are not just facing a crisis – we are witnessing the systematic erosion of a country’s future,” Luca Renda, the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP’s) resident representative in Sudan, told Al Jazeera. A report by the UNDP and the Institute for Security Studies highlights the scale of Sudan’s economic collapse. Even under the most optimistic scenario of peace being achieved in 2026, Sudan would still lose an estimated $18.8 billion in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2043.

The war has had a devastating impact on Sudan's infrastructure and basic services. $6.4 billion was lost in GDP in 2023 alone, reflecting a simultaneous collapse across all major parts of Sudan’s economy. The destruction of infrastructure has triggered displacement and made it difficult for people to secure adequate housing or access basic services. Up to 40 percent of power generation capacity has been lost, and key water infrastructure has been destroyed or seized, cutting communities off from clean water and sanitation.

The labor market has also been severely affected, with agriculture – once the backbone of Sudan’s economy – severely hit. Cultivated land has shrunk, adversely impacting rural livelihoods. Average incomes have fallen back to levels last seen in 1992. About 90 percent of manufacturing activity has been destroyed in key economic hubs, eliminating thousands of jobs.

The oil industry has suffered significantly, with oil output falling amid widespread instability and infrastructure damage. The Khartoum refinery, which previously processed up to 100,000 barrels per day, has been out of operation since July 2023. Key infrastructure, including pipeline routes carrying crude to Port Sudan, has been hit.

The collapse of the Sudanese pound and supply chains has caused a sharp rise in living costs. Food prices have surged, with four pieces of bread now costing about 1,000 pounds, an amount that had previously bought six pieces. Wages have failed to catch up with inflation, leaving many households without access to necessities. Nearly half the population is now experiencing acute food shortages.

The economic collapse has had a profound impact on Sudan's people, with 34 million people in need of assistance and 19 million facing acute food shortages. The war has caused death, trauma, and profound loss, casting a long shadow over Sudan’s future and dimming the prospects of a generation whose lives are being shaped by violence. If the conflict continues to 2030, Sudan’s economy in 2043 would be about $34.5 billion smaller than it would have been without the war, and GDP per capita would drop by roughly $1,700.