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The LeadDiagnostic interviews for mental health conditions, commonly used to diagnose disorders including depression, anxiety, bipolar, and personality disorders, show significant variation in reliability according to a new study published in Jama Network Open. The research challenges the long-held assumption that these interviews serve as a definitive "gold standard" for mental health assessment.The Study's Findings on Diagnostic ReliabilityLaura Duncan, a psychiatry professor at McMaster University in Ontario, Canada and one of the study's authors, pointed out that diagnostic interviews "continue to be widely viewed as the best available approach, possibly due to the lack of better alternatives." The review study brings together evidence from studies on "test-retest reliability" of diagnostic interviews from February 2024 to September 2025.The study's authors used Cohen's kappa coefficient to estimate reliability, measuring how often patients would receive the same diagnosis when given the same diagnostic interview twice, accounting for chance agreement. The average reliability was generally better for substance use disorders, with opioid use disorder showing the highest overall reliability. Duncan attributed this to substance use disorder criteria being largely behavior-based, making them easier to quantify than symptoms like sadness or anxiety.The Data Analysis: Interview Types and Their LimitationsThe review included papers on various diagnostic tools including the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM 5 (SCID) and Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (Mini), as well as tools for specific disorders like the Clinically Administered PTSD Scale (Caps).Dr. Michael First, a psychiatrist and professor at Columbia University who authored the SCID, criticized the study for lumping "fully structured" and "semi-structured" interviews together. Fully structured interviews follow a strict script and are more likely to yield consistent results, while semi-structured interviews allow clinicians to ask follow-up questions based on patient responses, potentially leading to more accurate diagnoses but also more variability between sessions.Despite these limitations, both experts agree that more objective laboratory tests for mental conditions are needed, though First noted that psychiatrists have been hoping for such tests "for 50 years" without success.The Impact Analysis: Shaping the Future of Psychiatric DiagnosisThe study highlights a critical need for more rigor in psychiatric diagnosis methods. While diagnostic interviews remain the primary tool for assessment, their variable reliability raises questions about the consistency of mental health diagnoses across different settings and providers.The research underscores the challenges in mental health assessment, where subjective reporting of symptoms often forms the basis of diagnosis. This variability can have significant implications for treatment decisions, research outcomes, and patient care across healthcare systems.The criticism from experts like Dr. First also points to methodological challenges in studying diagnostic tools themselves, including inconsistent reporting of interview formats and designs in research literature.The Prediction: Toward a New Diagnostic ParadigmLooking forward, Duncan suggested an alternative approach where clinicians "move away from strict diagnostic categories, where a condition is either present or absent, and think about symptoms on a spectrum or continuum." This shift could potentially lead to more nuanced understanding and treatment of mental health conditions.As the field continues to evolve, there's a clear need for both improved diagnostic instruments and more comprehensive research comparing different interview methodologies. The study's authors emphasize that the limitations identified in current diagnostic approaches should motivate further development of more reliable assessment tools in psychiatry.

The Lead: The Derby 2026 Unfolds at Epsom The 247th running of The Derby, the most famous Classic in horse racing, is underway at Epsom Downs with 14 runners vying for the prestigious title. Guardian's Greg Wood provides live coverage, previews, and expert picks for the day's major races including the Derby Stakes, Dash Handicap, and Coronation Cup. The Event Details: Race Previews and Analysis The Derby Stakes, scheduled for 4pm BST, features 14 horses competing to become the 247th horse on the Derby's roll of honor. Recent rain has affected the going, adding an element of unpredictability to the race. Other key races include the 3.15pm Dash Handicap and the 2.40pm Coronation Cup, which features last year's winner, last year's Derby winner, and the officially top-rated horse on the planet, Calandagan. The Data Analysis: Form Guide and Key Contenders For the Derby Stakes, several horses stand out based on recent form. Benvenuto Cellini's Chester Vase win and the competitive Lingfield race between Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance are noted as strong form indicators. Item could become the fifth Dante winner this century to add the Derby to his record, while Ancient Egypt is ready to live up to his pedigree and price tag for Kia Joorabchian and Charlie Johnston. In the Dash Handicap, a field of 20 runners will compete over the minimum five-furlong trip. The high numbers generally hold sway in races at this distance, and the speedy nature of the track means the pace tends to hold up. Kinswoman, the favorite, and Lexington Buzz are expected to perform well, with Irish raider Eclairage also showing promise. The Coronation Cup features an exceptional lineup, including last year's winner Lambourn, last year's Derby winner Jan Brueghel, and the World's Best Racehorse in 2025, Calandagan, who has been on an unbeaten five-race spree at the sport's highest level. The Impact Analysis: Significance in the Horse Racing Calendar The Derby remains one of the most prestigious races in the global horse racing calendar, attracting the best three-year-old thoroughbreds from around the world. The event's cultural significance extends beyond the sport, with celebrities like Mary Berry and Jodie Kidd attending, adding to the pageantry and tradition of the occasion. The rain-softened ground conditions have added an element of unpredictability, potentially favoring horses with proven form on similar surfaces. This could lead to surprises and potentially create new stars in the sport. The Prediction: Expert Picks and Race Outlook Greg Wood has made his selections for the day's key races. For the Derby Stakes, he favors Bay Of Brilliance as an each-way option, citing the strength of the Lingfield form and the advantage of stall position for the horse. For the Dash Handicap, he recommends Eclairage from stall 14, noting the tendency for high-numbered horses to perform well in this race. In the Coronation Cup, Calandagan is the clear favorite, with Wood expecting him to continue his unbeaten streak at the sport's highest level.

The Lead The trade war between the US and China is expected to be a long and complex one, with far-reaching consequences for the global economy. While the US goal of curbing China's export dominance is justified, Trump's strategy of scattershot protectionism and belligerence against potential allies is flawed. China's Export Juggernaut China accounts for about a third of the world's manufacturing output, and its share of global manufacturing exports has risen from 3% to 20% over the past few decades. The country has become a dominant player in the global supply chain, with a near-monopoly on critical commodities and products such as pharmaceutical components, critical minerals, and essential chips. The Data Analysis China's share of global manufacturing output: about 33% China's share of global manufacturing exports: 20% China's current account surplus: 3.8% of GDP (official), up to 5% (according to some analysts) The Impact Analysis The trade war will come at a cost to economic wellbeing, with prices of consumer goods rising as countries block imports from China. Manufacturers will have to cope with pricier Chinese inputs, and Chinese exporters will have a harder time finding markets to place their products. The risk of China leveraging its dominance in critical commodities and products to retaliate against countries that block its products or seek to shake its dominance is high. The Prediction A more coordinated approach with allies and targeted tariffs could help mitigate economic pain. However, even a better strategy will not avoid economic pain entirely. The US, Europe, and other major economies will need to build alternative sources of critical commodities and other inputs, a process that will be slow, tortuous, and dangerous.

The Evolution of VAR in World Cup Football The 2026 World Cup will see significant changes to the role of Video Assistant Referees (VAR). VAR will now be used to check every decision that results in a corner, as well as decisions leading to the award of a second yellow card and thus a sending-off. This expansion aims to reduce wrong decisions affecting high-profile matches. Enhanced VAR Protocol for Set Pieces In addition to its existing responsibilities, VAR will also assess fouls before set pieces. If an incident occurs before a set piece and has a direct impact on the outcome, VAR can intervene. This change targets issues like grappling in the box before corners and free kicks. Tougher Discipline: New Red Card Offenses Two new incidents have led to the introduction of additional red card offenses. Players or officials who leave the field in protest at a referee's decision can now be given a red card. Similarly, players who cover their mouths in a confrontational situation will also face the same sanction. Cracking Down on Tactical Timeouts To prevent tactical timeouts, outfield players will be required to leave the field for treatment and stay off for 60 seconds before rejoining. Goalkeepers will continue to receive treatment on the field, but with the added requirement that other players retreat to the center circle during treatment. Speeding Up the Game Referees will implement countdowns to speed up goal kicks and throw-ins. A five-second countdown will be used, and failure to comply will result in the opposition being awarded the throw-in or a corner. Player Substitutions and Time Management Players being substituted must leave the field within 10 seconds of their number being raised. Failure to do so will result in the replacement player being kept off the field for an additional minute.

The Lead A new documentary titled "The Alien Autopsy Scandal" reveals the fascinating behind-the-scenes story of how one of the most famous hoaxes of the 20th century was created in a modest Camden flat during the 1990s. The film exposes the elaborate deception behind the 1995 footage that purported to show an alien autopsy, which had been hailed globally as the most important evidence of extraterrestrial life ever recovered. The Creation of the Extraterrestrial Deception The documentary details how Ray Santilli and Gary Shoefield, two British businessmen, orchestrated the elaborate hoax. They employed a sculptor who had worked on Doctor Who to create the alien figure, filled with a mix of animal organs including a lamb's brain and pig's pluck to achieve convincingly moist appearance. A magician was brought in to shoot the film, which depicted hazmat figures performing an autopsy on a bulbous-headed humanoid with black, oval eyes and a distended belly. The Financial Success of the Fraud The hoax proved remarkably lucrative for its creators. After the footage was released in 1995, global news outlets heralded it as the most important evidence of extraterrestrial life ever discovered. The pair profited significantly from VHS home rentals, with Shoefield being interviewed from Beverly Hills, suggesting the financial rewards of their deception. The documentary highlights how the pair grew wealthy from their chicanery, capitalizing on public fascination with UFOs and the Roswell incident. The Impact on Media and Public Perception The alien autopsy footage had a significant impact on media coverage of UFO phenomena and public belief in extraterrestrial life. The documentary explores how the story was broken by Reg Presley, singer of the Troggs, who happened to be a friend of Santilli, appearing on the 90s daytime show "Good Morning With Anne and Nick" to reveal the existence of aliens. TV reporters worldwide smelled "ratings gold" in the story, leading to extensive global coverage that further popularized UFO conspiracy theories. The Legacy of the Hoax in the Digital Age In today's era of artificial intelligence and digital manipulation, the alien autopsy hoax takes on new significance. The documentary suggests there's an "analogue charm" to such hoaxes from a time when people were more innocent and willing to believe. The film contrasts past naivete with contemporary skepticism, noting that "today we have killed trust and dissected our wonder." As misinformation becomes increasingly sophisticated, the alien autopsy serves as both a cautionary tale and a reminder of humanity's enduring fascination with the possibility of extraterrestrial life.

The Origins of 'Mogging' Until recently, if someone had said "mog" to me, I probably would have assumed they were talking about the children's book cat created by the late great Judith Kerr. If asked about "mogging" or being "mogged," I would have been completely baffled. But for many members of gen Z and gen Alpha (or anyone who is just a bit too online), the slang term, which means to outdo or outshine others, is everywhere. From Manosphere to Mainstream Mogging's origins are in the manosphere, where it began as a verb derived from the acronym "Amog" (alpha male of the group). In misogynistic forums in the 2010s, to "mog" came to mean to outdo someone in terms of sexual desirability. Mogging has been adopted by "looksmaxxing" influencers such as Braden Peters, known online as Clavicular, who encourage men to try to alter their looks – sometimes in extreme ways – to increase their "sexual market value". Such an influencer might talk of "frame mogging" another person in a photo or video – a variation on mogging that specifically refers to being more muscular. The Evolution of Competitive Language Even now, as the term has begun to be used much more widely, and in a tongue-in-cheek way, it is still typically associated with looks (a friend of mine, for example, was described by her boyfriend's younger siblings as "mogging him" in a photo). But increasingly, mogging can mean besting others at basically anything. The gold medal Olympic figure skater Alysa Liu said in an interview last year that her main competition strategy was "to mog", while a 23-year-old colleague of mine tells me that she and her friends joke about "walk-mogging" when they overtake people on the street. Linguistic Analysis of Modern Slang Tony Thorne, director of the slang and new language archive at King's College London, says a lot of new slang terms "have come recently from the same kind of male-based internet culture", referencing the words "simp" (someone who is excessively attentive), "soy boy" (a derogatory term for a man who is not stereotypically masculine) and "sigma" (someone cool and successful). Not to mention "maxxing," now such an established part of the lexicon that it was tweeted by the US Department of Defense earlier this year. The Cultural Impact of Competitive Slang Thorne thinks it is significant that "mogging" in particular has become fashionable at this time. "What it implies – hyper-competitive, hyper-individualist, aggressive selfishness" has become "mainstream behaviour", he says. Which is why Will Adolphy, a psychotherapist who was himself once an ardent follower of manosphere influencers, has concerns about the word. "Part of me can see how it's a kind of handy, even entertaining word," he says. But the idea of mogging "reinforces this sense that there are certain people that will dominate others based off their physical appearance and status", he says. Psychological Concerns About Competitive Language Dr Emily Sehmer, an NHS child and adolescent psychiatrist, worries too about the "constant sense of competition" that concepts such as mogging help to foster, especially for teenagers, who are developing their socio-emotional skills and typically "have a desire to fit in and to get peer approval". Apart from anything else, she adds, wanting to mog someone is "kind of mean, isn't it?" The Ironical Reappropriation of 'Mogging' "I think people are right to be concerned," about the rise in usage of slang that originates from a toxic subculture, Thorne says – and notes that some of his fellow linguists feel uncomfortable about researching it. But, he adds, "mogging" has moved well beyond its origins, and many people who use it now "tend to understand it and laugh at it, and they use it themselves, but ironically". Certainly, plenty of mogging content on social media now has an irreverence to it: such as the trend of posing for the photo on a rollercoaster in order to "mog" the screaming riders next to you. Making what started as an aggressive concept into something very silly pokes fun at the ridiculousness of the manosphere, my younger colleague explains. She shows me a picture of herself on a recent holiday, standing next to a statue of Napoleon, that she sent to a group chat of her friends. The caption? "I mogged Napoleon!"

The Bridge Between Art and ScienceWhy do we find things beautiful? More precisely, why do some paintings of coloured dots in rippling patterns inspire in me something like revelation? The idea that beauty is the feeling you get when encountering truth is unfashionable in the arts, but lingers in the sciences. The physicist Paul Dirac once proposed that it is more important that a formula is beautiful than that it can be proven: when a perfectly beautiful theory produces results that cannot be real, he argued, then we should not discard the theory but reconsider what is real.Since the 1970s, Terry Winters has been rebuilding that bridge between art and science. Taking inspiration from disciplines including botany – his early paintings, particularly, evoke sprouting pods and tangled roots – engineering, computer modelling and cybernetics, his paintings might be understood as diagrammatic approximations of the patterns that govern everything from the division of cells to the constellation of stars. If every era has to renew its standards of beauty to reflect new understandings of how the world is constructed, then Winters comes as close to providing that model as any living painter.Mathematical Patterns in Visual ArtThese eight new works take their titles from the language of geometry and mathematics: Area, Array, Field, Locus, Point, Scope, Sequence and Set. Each is composed of overlapping patterns that pull each other out of shape according to invisible laws of attraction and repulsion. Field is indicative: on a sooty pink ground, a dense grid of dusty blue cells bends inwards like a trampoline beneath a bowling ball, while an intersecting arrangement of larger circles swells outwards. The disorienting effect of this push-pull is exaggerated by an optical illusion, created by ragged phosphorescent orange haloes around the blue circles, that makes them appear to be craters sunk into the crust of paint. You have to walk up to the surface to be reassured that it is flat.Point shows a teeming landscape of cells bulging outwards at the centre, as if a scum of frogspawn had been skimmed off a pond and placed under a paperweight microscope. In Sequence, a storm of pink interference skims through a yellow circle split like a brain into hemispheres, while a nebulous weather system sweeps in from the right. In Scope, vaguely symbolic arrangements of freshwater blue and desert orange nodules move across the familiar circle-within-a-square geometry of Leonardo's Vitruvian Man. Where that famous demonstration of sacred geometries exudes stillness and calm, the systems that run through Winters' worlds are wild and strange. Here, as much importance is given to the subjective factors of perception and consciousness as the objective principles of logic and proportion.Optical Illusions and Sensory ExperienceAll of this should not distract from the pure sensory pleasure afforded by these pictures. In Locus, another optical illusion seems to lift the red edge of the painting off the canvas like a clumsy wooden frame, squeezing the pockmarked sphere at its centre so that it balloons outwards, threatening to burst. The same cadmium red, so sandy that the pigment seems barely to have been suspended in oil, turns carmine pockets into rock formations that climb off the surface of Set. These sleights of hand evoke the more secular movement of op art, in which patterns are manipulated to exploit the idiosyncrasies of human perception rather than to uncover deeper truths. Which begs the question: is this all just a conjuring trick?Rediscovering the Renaissance ApproachThere is something magical about these works. Even though Winters is generally credited with having extended the lineage of modernist American painting into the present, his practice is in this sense pre-modern. In its rejection of the idea that art should be separated from science, it resembles the Renaissance attitude according to which painting is no less a tool for understanding the world than mathematics, and magic is just the name for things we don't yet understand. His commitment to synthesising diverse spheres of knowledge, his alchemist's commitment to materials, and his sheer technical ability certainly mark him out in a scene recently overwhelmed by chancers and charlatans, bandwagoners and snake-oil salesmen. That his work is enjoying a revival might be taken as an encouraging sign.Beauty as a Path to TruthDirac, incidentally, was proved right. He formulated a theory that was so beautiful it couldn't possibly be wrong, even though it implied the existence of phenomena that everyone agreed must be impossible. He stood by it, and a few years later, someone else discovered anti-matter. Winters' paintings likewise offer a flash of those secret patterns that underpin the physical world, and which science has yet to illuminate. Which is to say, they're beautiful.Exhibition DetailsTerry Winters: Along the River is at Modern Art, London, until 11 July

The Pond Picasso's Environmental JourneyIn a boggy field in Somerset, Shaun Hancox operates an orange and black excavator, rhythmically removing lumpy clay soil and sculpting it into brown banks. What appears as a scar of bare earth on what was once green pasture will soon transform into a thriving freshwater ecosystem once rain fills the newly created depressions. This is the work of "the Picasso of ponds," a man who has transitioned from shaping golf courses to creating vital wildlife habitats across Britain.The Art and Science of Pond Creation"There's a lot more thought that goes into it than digging a hole," explains Hancox of Creative Wetlands. His background in golf course construction has given him unique insights into water movement and landscape design. "A golf ball rolls very much how water moves. When you're putting in a wildlife pond, you look at the landscape and give your pond the best chance of holding water and doing what it should do." The shapes of his ponds are "almost golf course bunkers but in a more rustic, natural way." At Heal Somerset, a 185-hectare former dairy farm being rewilded, Hancox is digging four new ponds, including one double-bowled pond 30 meters in diameter specifically for great-crested newts.The Decline of Britain's Freshwater HabitatsBritain has lost at least 400,000 ponds over the past century, according to the Freshwater Habitats Trust. A similar number remain, but many are overgrown, degraded, or affected by nutrient pollution. "Everyone realises we're in a sorry state with freshwater and it needs to be addressed," says Hancox. This decline has had devastating consequences for aquatic and semi-aquatic species that depend on these freshwater ecosystems for breeding, feeding, and shelter.Transforming Landscapes for WildlifeThe ponds created by Hancox and his team are specifically designed to maximize their ecological impact. Crucially, these new ponds are not connected to any river system, which can wash nutrient-rich or polluted water into them. Instead, they are charged by clean rainwater or clean groundwater, enabling more delicate aquatic plants to thrive. Within a year of being created, the ponds fill with aquatic life, including damselflies and dragonflies, and provide food and shelter for birds, from moorhens to house martins, who feed on the insects and use the pond-side mud to build nests.The Future of Freshwater ConservationInitiatives like the Newt Conservation Partnership, a coalition of the Freshwater Habitats Trust and the Amphibian and Reptile Conservation Trust, are working to ensure these habitats are maintained long-term. The partnership operates across 70 local authorities in England and ensures that any new pond habitat is maintained for 25 years, with ponds inspected and landowners receiving annual payments to manage them. "It guarantees that they will be suitable for newts in 25 years' time," says Pete Case of the Newt Conservation Partnership. "When it comes to newt conservation, everyone focuses on making a pond, but newts spend two-thirds of their life on land. If you don't get that bit right, they aren't going to do so well." This comprehensive approach to habitat creation and management represents a promising model for future conservation efforts across Britain and beyond.

Derby 2026: Overview of the FieldThe 2026 Epsom Derby features a deep and diverse field, with a mix of proven Group performers and outsiders bought for modest sums. Rain‑softened ground at Epsom adds an extra variable, potentially rewarding stamina‑rich pedigrees and horses that have thrived on heavy turf.Form Guide: Individual Horse ProfilesAction – Trainer/jockey: Aidan O’Brien/Wayne Lordan, stall 11. Timeform rating 125, odds 25-1. Pedigree: Frankel / Gossamer Wings (Scat Daddy). Recent form: half‑length second to Hawk Mountain in the Group One Futurity on heavy ground; credible second in the Dante Stakes.Alderman – Trainer/jockey: Richard Hannon/Pat Dobbs, stall 6. Timeform rating 97p, odds 250-1. Pedigree: Study Of Man / Alagappa (Archipenko). Recent form: fourth‑and‑a‑quarter lengths behind Water To Wine at Newbury in a maiden.Ancient Egypt – Trainer/jockey: Charlie Johnston/David Egan, stall 10. Timeform rating 123p, odds 16-1. Pedigree: Frankel / Atone (Oasis Dream). Recent form: winner of the Newmarket Stakes; previously well‑beaten in the Royal Lodge Stakes.Taste Of Glory – Trainer/jockey: Andrew Balding/Jamie Spencer, stall 7. Timeform rating 105, odds 300-1. Pedigree: Soldier Hollow / Aothea (Areion). A €20k purchase, reminiscent of past long‑shot Derby runners.Balzac – Trainer/jockey: Jane Chapple‑Hyam/Silvestre de Sousa, stall 2. Timeform rating 112, odds 150-1. Pedigree: Japan / Brit Wit (High Chaparral). Only win in an all‑weather maiden; recent defeats in the Blue Riband Trial and at Lingfield.Bay Of Brilliance – Trainer/jockey: Ralph Beckett/Hector Crouch, stall 9. Timeform rating 128p, odds 16-1. Pedigree: New Bay / Incroyable (Singspiel). Strong performance in the Lingfield Trial, narrowly beaten by Maltese Cross.Benvenuto Cellini – Trainer/jockey: Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore, stall 12. Timeform rating 130p, odds 9-4. Pedigree: Frankel / Newspaperofrecord (Lope De Vega). Convincing trial win; favourite with a solid pedigree.Christmas Day – Trainer/jockey: Aidan O’Brien/Ronan Whelan, stall 5. Timeform rating 125p, odds 25-1. Pedigree: Camelot / Beauly (Sea The Stars). Third in the Dante Stakes after a strong Ballysax Stakes win.Timeform Ratings, Odds and Market ValuationThe market places Benvenuto Cellini at the forefront with 9-4 odds, reflecting his high Timeform rating of 130p. Close behind are Bay Of Brilliance (16-1, rating 128p) and Ancient Egypt (16-1, rating 123p). Long‑shot entries such as Alderman and Taste Of Glory carry odds of 250-1 and 300-1 respectively, underscoring the depth of the field.Strategic Implications for Trainers and the Epsom MeetingRecent rain at Epsom favours horses with proven stamina on soft ground, benefitting runners like Action and Bay Of Brilliance who have performed well on heavy turf. Trainers with multiple entries (Aidan O’Brien fields three runners) can employ tactical pacesetting, potentially using Action as a rabbit to benefit his stablemates.Predicted Scenarios and Post‑Derby OutlookWhile Benvenuto Cellini remains the statistical favourite, the race could be decided by ground conditions, with a possible upset from Ancient Egypt or Bay Of Brilliance if the soft going persists. A strong showing from any long‑shot would boost the market for future Group races, especially the St Leger and the Prix du Jockey Club, where connections may target their Derby‑placed horses.