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The Alarming Prevalence of Child Labour There are approximately 2.4 billion minors around the world who are aged below 18 years. Nearly 138 million of these children – about one in 17 – are engaged in child labour, including 54 million in hazardous work that endangers their health and safety, according to estimates by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and UNICEF. Children in Hazardous Jobs In 2015, the United Nations set a goal to end child labour worldwide by 2025. That deadline has now passed. Although the total number of children in child labour has declined, two in five of those children still work in hazardous jobs that often involve heavy physical labour, exposure to toxic chemicals, dangerous machinery, long hours, or unsafe environments. 10.3 million (about 1 in 5) are aged 5-11 12.8 million (about 1 in 4) are aged 12-14 30.8 million (about 4 in 7) are aged 15-17 Child Labour in Different Industries Agriculture remains the world’s largest employer of children, accounting for 61 percent of all child labour cases. That means roughly 84 million children are working on farms, fisheries, forests and livestock production. Children carry heavy sacks across fields, spray crops with pesticides, descend into mines, work with sharp tools and machinery and spend long hours in extreme heat. Children in service sector jobs, such as domestic work, retail and hospitality, account for 27 percent of child labour cases, while 13 percent work in industry, including mining, manufacturing and construction. Child Labour Rates Around the World Sub-Saharan Africa remains the centre of the crisis, with 87 million children engaged in child labour, more than the rest of the world combined. Population growth, conflict and economic instability have offset many of the gains made in recent years. While Asia and the Pacific have recorded the sharpest reductions, child labour remains embedded in global supply chains that produce food, clothing, minerals and consumer goods sold around the world.

The Escalation of Cross-Border ViolenceThree people have been killed in the border region between Russia and Ukraine as the two sides launched attacks on each other in the latest exchange of fire. The casualties highlight the intensifying nature of the conflict as both nations increasingly target civilian and strategic areas beyond the traditional front lines.Strategic Attacks on Both SidesIn Russia, two civilians were killed and two wounded in the region of Bryansk after Kyiv struck the settlement of Suzemka with artillery, according to Acting Governor Egor Kovalchuk. A drone also hit an apartment building in Russia's central region of Tatarstan, injuring three people, while industrial facilities were hit, regional head Rustam Minnikhanov reported.Russia's city of Togliatti, home to the country's biggest carmaker Avtovaz, also came under a drone attack overnight, Samara region Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev announced.Casualties and Strategic ImpactsIn Ukraine, a drone attack in the border region of Sumy caused casualties. A 44-year-old woman working as a rail station operator died on her way to a shelter during the strike, according to the head of Ukrainian Railways, Oleksandr Pertsovskyi. Another woman, a station attendant, was wounded in the attack. Additionally, three people were wounded in separate attacks on Ukraine's southern Mykolaiv region.Russian Fuel Crisis and Ukrainian StrategyThe attacks reflect Ukraine's strategy of what it calls a 'logistics lockdown' - mid-range strikes targeting infrastructure like oil refineries, bridges, logistics, and roads to halt Russia's front-line operations. Ukraine also launches what it calls 'long-range sanctions' against Russian targets, particularly targeting Russia's oil refineries and oil industry.This strategy appears to be having tangible effects. On Thursday, fuel stations on the Russian-held Crimean Peninsula ran out of petrol after a Ukrainian campaign against the peninsula's supply lines escalated. Local authorities have imposed fuel rationing regimes, with some foodstuffs also running short.Regional Implications and Future OutlookThe cross-border attacks represent a significant escalation of the conflict, with both sides increasingly targeting civilian areas and critical infrastructure. The fuel shortages in Crimea suggest Ukraine's strategy is having strategic impacts on Russian logistics and supply chains.As the conflict continues to evolve, we can expect further drone attacks on both sides, potentially targeting economic infrastructure and civilian areas. The international community will likely face increased pressure to address the widening scope of the conflict, which now extends beyond traditional battlefronts into economic and civilian spheres.

The Looming Threat of a 'Super' El Niño A powerful, or “super” El Niño – marked by 2C (3.6F) or greater increase in sea surface temperatures – is now highly probable for this year, lasting into 2027. Weakened trade winds allow warm surface waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific. This disrupts ocean circulation and alters weather patterns worldwide. Exacerbating Global Economic Inequality El Niño is intensifying an already unequal global economy. Food insecurity is not simply a climatic problem, but rooted in dependency and global market integration, while climate shocks expose how supply chains push risk on to the world’s poorest populations. 10 Potential Worst-Case Scenarios What follows are 10 potential worst-case scenarios – impacts that will not be evenly felt but disproportionately borne by poorer farmers and workers. Drought Drought hits rain-fed agricultural regions particularly hard. In parts of sub-Saharan Africa grain yields often fall during and following El Niño’s, increasing import dependence and raising food prices. Shock to global food supply chains Globally, there is a heightened risk of a shock to global food supply chains. Four crops – wheat, rice, maize and soybeans – provide more than 60% of the world’s calorie intake. Wildfire risk El Niño can heighten wildfire risk in some regions. In South America, it often reduces wet‑season rainfall, leaving vegetation drier and more fire‑prone; severe fires in Brazil in 2016 and 2024 burned millions of hectares. Excess rainfall Parts of the southern United States and South America, the Horn of Africa and central Asia often experience excess rainfall during El Niño, leading to flooding. Increased coal consumption Greater heat can increase already high levels of coal consumption in parts of the world. El Niño brings above-average temperatures and intensifies prolonged heatwaves in south Asia by weakening monsoon rains, which increases demand for air conditioning. Coal-based power systems in Asia supply about 70% of electricity in India and approximately 55% in China. Grid failure risk Drought also affects hydropower generation, increasing risk of grid failures. Colombia, for example, relies upon hydropower for about 65% of its energy generation. Declining fish stocks El Niño stops cool water upwelling in parts of the Pacific, limiting nutrient availability for phytoplankton and leaving small fish such as anchovies and sardines without enough food. Heightened geopolitical tensions over critical agricultural inputs More extreme weather could exacerbate geopolitical tensions. Rising temperatures reduce crop fertility and farmers often respond by applying more fertilizers. Higher rates of heat illness All these dynamics affect societies unequally. Workers exposed to heat stress face heightened health risks, particularly in physically demanding jobs such as agriculture and construction. Civil conflict Reduced crop yields and weakened economies often intensify social tensions. The likelihood of civil conflict in affected tropical countries can double during El Niño years. The Way Forward There is also extensive knowledge on building resilient agricultural systems that can generate food security while contributing to ecosystem restoration. But again, breaking out of an export-orientated, chemically intensive agricultural system will take large-scale political transformations.

The Return to Physical Power: IATA in RioThe annual IATA AGM has returned to a physical setting in Rio de Janeiro, marking a significant shift from the virtual-only years of the pandemic. This choice of location underscores the industry's belief in a robust recovery, despite the backdrop of the US-Israel-Iran conflict in the Hormuz Strait. While geopolitical tensions threaten supply chains, airlines are defying dire warnings of a 'summer of chaos' for European holidaymakers, demonstrating a remarkable resilience in the face of potential disruption.The Economics of Flight: Fuel and FinancialsFuel Price Surge: Jet fuel prices have climbed to over $140 a barrel, a stark increase from the $80 per barrel seen at the last summit in Delhi.Cost Impact: Fuel now accounts for just over a quarter of global airlines' operating costs. Every dollar increase per barrel adds approximately $3 billion to annual fuel bills.Capacity Adjustments: To manage uncertainty, about 6% of available seats have been removed from global schedules recently.M&A; Activity: The financial strain is evident in the market; EasyJet's share price has tumbled, attracting a potential takeover bid from US private equity firm Castlelake.Leadership Shifts and Strategic ResponsesThe summit is also a stage for significant leadership transitions and strategic realignments. Willie Walsh, the IATA Director General, is departing to lead India's budget carrier Indigo, having previously criticized governments for failing to support Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandates. Meanwhile, Gulf carriers like Emirates are notably quiet, having faced operational grounding during the recent Middle East conflict. The EU Transport Commissioner has sought to allay fears, confirming no immediate jet fuel shortage in Europe and highlighting new supply sources in the US and West Africa.The Road Ahead: Volatility and ConsolidationLooking forward, the aviation industry faces a dual challenge: managing prolonged fuel price volatility and navigating a landscape of potential consolidation. With flight volumes growing faster than efficiency gains, the carbon footprint remains a persistent issue despite the focus on SAF. Analysts predict that airlines will continue to struggle with hedging strategies in a volatile market, potentially leading to further mergers and acquisitions among budget carriers struggling to maintain margins.

The Economic Impact of the US-Iran Conflict The conflict in the Middle East is set to bring global economic growth to its slowest since the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Bank has warned. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, published on Thursday, the Washington-based institution cut its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.5 percent from the 2.9 percent it had predicted in January, citing surging energy prices, rising inflation and higher borrowing costs. Global Growth Forecast Downgraded The report highlights the significant economic costs of the conflict, which is at risk of flaring up again, as the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is tested on both sides. The analysis warns that the outlook could decline further if supply disruptions worsen. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a vital passageway for oil and gas transit – in response to the hostilities launched by the US and Israel has put huge stress upon global energy and other supply chains. Energy Price Surge and Inflation The World Bank estimates that Brent crude prices — the international oil benchmark — will average $94 a barrel this year, 36 percent above last year’s average. Fertiliser prices are forecast to increase significantly this year, with knock-on effects for food prices. Overall, the closure of the strategic waterway will help to push global inflation to 4 percent this year, a substantial increase from last year’s rate of 3.3 percent. Developing Countries on the Front Line The World Bank report also cautions that developing countries are on the front line of the potential impact. In its report, the institution has downgraded its growth forecasts for two-thirds of countries since January. Global growth is expected to improve to 2.8 percent in 2027, but will remain 0.4 percentage points below the average during the 2010s, during which the world economy was recovering from the global financial crisis. World Bank's Response The World Bank is pledging to assist any developing country experiencing the economic fallout of the Middle East conflict. The organisation says it has set aside up to $60bn to help. It added that if the conflict persists, it can increase its support to $100bn.

The Lead: Military Escalation in Persian GulfThe United States has launched fresh strikes against "multiple targets" in Iran at President Donald Trump's direction, in a fresh escalation that prompted Tehran to declare the Strait of Hormuz closed to "all types of vessels." The US military said the strikes late on Wednesday were "in response to Iran's unwarranted and continued aggression," as Iranian state media reported explosions on Qeshm Island and in the cities of Bandar Abbas and Sirik along the Strait of Hormuz.Strategic Military Actions in the RegionBlasts also hit the southern city of Kargan, wounding at least two people. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps accused the US of "repeated violations" of their April ceasefire, and said the Strait of Hormuz was "closed until further notice." It added that all traffic in the vital waterway, including oil tankers and commercial vessels, would be affected, and firmly rejected the US's previous claims that it had helped ships pass through the strait. The IRGC subsequently stated that "two oil tankers attempting to illegally pass through the strait were hit."The Economic Significance of Hormuz Strait ClosureThe Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies, with approximately 20% of the world's traded oil passing through this narrow waterway. The closure of this strategic waterway has immediate implications for global energy markets, potentially causing oil prices to spike and disrupting supply chains worldwide. Iran's decision to block this vital route represents a significant escalation in tensions and demonstrates the country's willingness to use economic leverage in its confrontation with the United States.Regional Implications and International ResponseThe escalation comes a day after the US and Iran exchanged tit-for-tat strikes over the downing of a US Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, Trump had warned that the US would hit Iran "very hard," stating "We'll see what happens with the deal. We were really close to a deal. But they keep stringing us along." Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian responded on social media, saying threats to critical infrastructure are "not a show of strength but a sign of desperation in the face of a nation's will." This confrontation has significant implications for regional stability, potentially drawing in other Middle Eastern powers and affecting global security arrangements.Future Outlook: Path to De-escalation or Further Conflict?The current situation presents a dangerous precedent in US-Iran relations, with both sides demonstrating willingness to use military force. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz puts additional economic pressure on Iran but also risks international backlash as it threatens global energy security. Diplomatic channels appear strained, with Trump suggesting previous negotiations were undermined by Iranian actions. The coming days will be critical in determining whether this latest escalation leads to a broader conflict or if both sides can find a way to de-escalate tensions. The international community, particularly oil-dependent nations and maritime security partners, will be closely monitoring developments in this strategically vital region.

Lead: Trump Signals Unrelenting Pressure on TehranPresident Donald Trump told Fox News he may "keep going" with U.S. strikes on Iran, after the military hit Iranian targets in response to a downed helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran answered with missile launches at U.S. bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, intensifying a conflict that many hoped would be contained.Escalation of Hostilities: New U.S. Airstrikes and Iranian Counter‑FireOn Tuesday, U.S. forces bombed strategic sites inside Iran, citing the overnight downing of a U.S. helicopter. Within hours, Iranian forces fired missiles at installations hosting U.S. troops across the Gulf region, demonstrating a rapid tit‑for‑tat dynamic.U.S. strike trigger: downed helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz.Iranian retaliation: missiles aimed at bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan.Trump’s public stance: "I may keep going" – indicating no immediate de‑escalation.Economic Ripple: Energy Prices Surge Amid UncertaintyIran’s threat to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed has already pushed global oil prices upward, tightening supply chains already strained by high grocery and gas costs in the United States. While exact figures were not disclosed, market analysts warn that prolonged disruption could exacerbate inflationary pressures ahead of the November midterm elections.Geopolitical Fallout: Diplomatic Channels Under StrainThe hardening rhetoric undermines weeks of diplomatic overtures that suggested a peace deal was near. Iranian officials, including deputy speaker Haji Babaei, reiterated that any agreement must respect Iran’s “rights,” while President Masoud Pezeshkian warned Tehran will not yield to threats. Domestic critics, such as Senator Chris Murphy, accuse the president of losing control of the conflict.Looking Ahead: Scenarios for the U.S.–Iran StandoffAnalysts outline three likely paths:Continued escalation: Further strikes could draw regional allies into the fray, expanding the conflict beyond Iran’s borders.Negotiated pause: International pressure might force a temporary cease‑fire, preserving the Strait’s flow while diplomatic talks resume.Stalemate: Both sides maintain limited attacks, keeping the region volatile but avoiding full‑scale war.The trajectory will hinge on Washington’s willingness to balance domestic political concerns with the strategic imperative of securing energy routes.

The Lobito Corridor: A New Model for US-Africa Ties? When veteran naval officer Frank Garcia was appointed by the United States Senate as assistant secretary of state for African affairs, he praised the administration of Donald Trump for affirming Washington’s engagement in “trade and investment for mutual benefit” in the African continent. In particular, Garcia highlighted the Lobito Corridor – a strategic 1,300km (810-mile) rail and transport route linking the Atlantic port of Lobito in Angola to the mineral-rich regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Zambia – as an example of this new direction during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on March 5. The Event Details: Lobito Corridor's Strategic Importance The Lobito Corridor connects the mineral-rich Copperbelt to the Atlantic Ocean via Angola’s Lobito Port, amid a global surge in demand for critical minerals to secure supply chains for the global energy transition. Its foundational infrastructure, the Benguela Railway, was first developed in 1902 as a colonial trade corridor to transport raw minerals from Africa’s inland to international markets in Europe and the Americas. The Data Analysis: Investment and Impact The US government committed billions of dollars to the initiative to increase Lobito’s transport capacity and reduce the cost of moving critical minerals. In 2022, the US – under former President Joe Biden – the European Union and other G7 members signed a memorandum of understanding pledging to mobilise $600bn for infrastructure development over five years, of which the US committed $200bn. The International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) pledged a $550m loan to support the project. The Impact Analysis: Concerns and Criticisms For some, the Lobito Corridor is an example of how US investments can boost Africa’s regional trade, create jobs, and improve infrastructure while offering investment opportunities. But critics say it mainly serves US efforts to secure alternative supply chains for critical minerals needed for the manufacture of electric vehicles, clean energy technologies and defence, furthering regional instability and conflicts. The Prediction: Future Outlook The Lobito Corridor project is one of five key trade, transit and development routes in Southern Africa. It aims to significantly improve transport efficiency in the region, reducing both the time and cost of moving goods to coastal ports. However, concerns remain about its impact on local communities and regional stability, with some critics arguing that it may exacerbate existing crises rather than offering solutions.

The Gordie Howe Bridge Opening Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has confirmed that the Gordie Howe International Bridge — a new six-lane thoroughfare that will connect Detroit, Michigan, with Windsor, Ontario — will open by the end of the week. Trump's Threats and Trade Tensions The announcement comes despite threats to the contrary from United States President Donald Trump, who promised earlier this year that the bridge would not open without concessions from Canada. Trump had falsely depicted the construction project as a Canadian-only enterprise, claiming that Canada would 'take advantage of America' and that the US would get 'Absolutely NOTHING'. Economic Impact and Trade Relations The Gordie Howe Bridge is designed to ease supply chains, reduce traffic and increase trade between the US and Canada. As of 2024, Canada was the largest destination for US exports, with trade between the two countries estimated to top $909.1bn. The bridge's opening is seen as a symbol of cross-border collaboration and a boost to commerce. Future Outlook and USMCA Renegotiations The bridge's opening comes as Canada and the US are renegotiating a free trade agreement struck during Trump's first term in 2020. Canada is seeking a 16-year renewal of the agreement, while the US has proposed new tariffs on several countries, including Canada, citing concerns over forced labor. Canada's Response to US Trade Policies Carney has responded to the fraying relations between the US and Canada by calling for a coalition of 'middle powers' to stand up to the 'great powers' of the world. The Gordie Howe Bridge project, which began in 2018 and cost roughly $6.4bn, has been held up as a symbol of cross-border partnership.