10 Worst-Case Scenarios of a 'Super' El Niño Event

The Looming Threat of a 'Super' El Niño

A powerful, or “super” El Niño – marked by 2C (3.6F) or greater increase in sea surface temperatures – is now highly probable for this year, lasting into 2027. Weakened trade winds allow warm surface waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific. This disrupts ocean circulation and alters weather patterns worldwide.

Exacerbating Global Economic Inequality

El Niño is intensifying an already unequal global economy. Food insecurity is not simply a climatic problem, but rooted in dependency and global market integration, while climate shocks expose how supply chains push risk on to the world’s poorest populations.

10 Potential Worst-Case Scenarios

What follows are 10 potential worst-case scenarios – impacts that will not be evenly felt but disproportionately borne by poorer farmers and workers.

• Drought

  Drought hits rain-fed agricultural regions particularly hard. In parts of sub-Saharan Africa grain yields often fall during and following El Niño’s, increasing import dependence and raising food prices.

• Shock to global food supply chains

  Globally, there is a heightened risk of a shock to global food supply chains. Four crops – wheat, rice, maize and soybeans – provide more than 60% of the world’s calorie intake.

• Wildfire risk

  El Niño can heighten wildfire risk in some regions. In South America, it often reduces wet‑season rainfall, leaving vegetation drier and more fire‑prone; severe fires in Brazil in 2016 and 2024 burned millions of hectares.

• Excess rainfall

  Parts of the southern United States and South America, the Horn of Africa and central Asia often experience excess rainfall during El Niño, leading to flooding.

• Increased coal consumption

  Greater heat can increase already high levels of coal consumption in parts of the world. El Niño brings above-average temperatures and intensifies prolonged heatwaves in south Asia by weakening monsoon rains, which increases demand for air conditioning. Coal-based power systems in Asia supply about 70% of electricity in India and approximately 55% in China.

• Grid failure risk

  Drought also affects hydropower generation, increasing risk of grid failures. Colombia, for example, relies upon hydropower for about 65% of its energy generation.

• Declining fish stocks

  El Niño stops cool water upwelling in parts of the Pacific, limiting nutrient availability for phytoplankton and leaving small fish such as anchovies and sardines without enough food.

• Heightened geopolitical tensions over critical agricultural inputs

  More extreme weather could exacerbate geopolitical tensions. Rising temperatures reduce crop fertility and farmers often respond by applying more fertilizers.

• Higher rates of heat illness

  All these dynamics affect societies unequally. Workers exposed to heat stress face heightened health risks, particularly in physically demanding jobs such as agriculture and construction.

• Civil conflict

  Reduced crop yields and weakened economies often intensify social tensions. The likelihood of civil conflict in affected tropical countries can double during El Niño years.

The Way Forward

There is also extensive knowledge on building resilient agricultural systems that can generate food security while contributing to ecosystem restoration. But again, breaking out of an export-orientated, chemically intensive agricultural system will take large-scale political transformations.