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The Lead One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has unveiled a gas policy inspired by Norway's successful model of resource management, proposing government equity stakes in oil and gas production and a sovereign wealth fund. However, experts point out that while One Nation has adopted some elements of Norway's approach, it has notably excluded the high taxation on profits that is central to Norway's success. The Norwegian Model Explained Norway's approach to managing its oil and gas resources has been globally recognized as "the gold standard." The Norwegian government holds ownership interests in approximately 30% of the nation's oil and gas reserves, with direct equity stakes in 187 production licenses, 48 producing fields, and 16 joint ventures. Crucially, the government also owns two-thirds of Equinor, Norway's largest oil and gas firm. What makes the Norwegian model unique is its combination of extensive public ownership with a 78% marginal tax rate on oil and gas company profits (resulting from a 71.8% "special" tax plus the standard 22% company tax). This approach generates approximately $100 billion annually for the Norwegian government, which is transferred to the Government Pension Fund Global, now worth $2.9 trillion—equivalent to about $500,000 per Norwegian citizen. One Nation's Policy: Selective Adoption One Nation's proposal includes two key elements from the Norwegian model: offering a 30% rebate on oil and gas exploration in Commonwealth waters in exchange for up to 30% equity in production licenses, and creating a sovereign wealth fund to reinvest profits. However, the party has notably excluded Norway's high taxation approach, instead proposing a simple 10% royalty on production to replace Australia's petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT). Pauline Hanson has criticized opponents for suggesting a 25% gas export levy, claiming it would be "industry-destroying." She argues that the Norway model has succeeded because "government and industry partner together supported by generous tax incentives," rather than through high taxation. Financial Impact Analysis Experts have raised concerns that One Nation's proposed 10% royalty may actually deliver less revenue than the current PRRT. Additionally, the opt-in approach to government partnership means only companies that choose to participate would be subject to the equity arrangement, potentially limiting the breadth of public ownership. Josh Runciman, lead gas analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, questions whether it's ideal for taxpayers to be exposed to exploration and appraisal risk when the government lacks expertise in this area. The policy also includes a provision for the government to direct its share of oil and gas production to "Australia's greatest benefit," which could include selling to domestic industries or exporting to pay down debt. Industry and Regional Impact One Nation's policy comes amid growing public unrest over successive governments' failure to secure a "fair share" of Australia's natural resource wealth. The party positions its approach as addressing this concern by ensuring that profits from Australia's resources benefit the nation through both direct ownership and a sovereign wealth fund. The policy has sparked debate within Australia's energy sector, with some experts questioning whether the selective adoption of Norway's model without the high taxation component will actually deliver the benefits claimed. The approach could potentially lead to increased government involvement in the energy sector while maintaining relatively low tax rates on industry profits. Long-Term Outlook and Predictions According to analysts, it would likely take a decade or more before early-stage gas projects under One Nation's policy would begin generating additional revenue for Australians. If implemented after the next election, Australians would not start receiving any extra tax windfall until the late 2030s at the earliest. The timeline for the proposed sovereign wealth fund to accumulate meaningful resources could be even longer, potentially delaying any significant impact on Australia's finances. This extended timeframe raises questions about whether the policy will deliver on its promise of securing a "fair share" for Australians within a reasonable period, especially as global energy markets continue to evolve.

The Lead: One Nation's Standalone Climate Denial As the populist right-wing One Nation party gains momentum in Australian polls, it maintains a firm stance against decades of climate science evidence showing the planet and Australia are warming. The party claims to be the only political force in Australia questioning climate science, but experts say this position is not only scientifically baseless but increasingly out of step with global trends in climate misinformation. The Event Details: One Nation's Climate Contradictions One Nation's position on climate change is rooted in denial and conspiracy theories, despite overwhelming scientific evidence. The party's energy and climate policies have previously been literal cut-and-pastes from the now-defunct climate denial group the Galileo Movement. Currently, One Nation rejects the scientific consensus that the planet and Australia are warming, claiming extreme weather was more prevalent before 1960—a position climate scientists have compared to believing the Earth is flat. The party also wants Australia to leave the Paris Agreement and would push to close down the federal climate change department "and all related agencies, regulations and programs." They proudly declare: "We are the only political party to question climate science." The Data Analysis: Australia's Unequivocal Warming Trend Despite One Nation's claims, Australia has experienced significant warming since 1910. The Bureau of Meteorology's official long-term climate dataset shows Australia has warmed by 1.5°C since 1910. Temperature readings before this period are not included in the official dataset because they were often taken with non-standardized equipment, making them less reliable. Research into pre-1910 temperature records shows temperatures from 1860 to 1909 were similar to those from 1910 to 1959. Since 1960, both maximum and minimum temperatures have risen significantly. The independent Berkeley Earth group's analysis of historical temperature data confirms Australia has warmed substantially since the 1880s. One Nation points to a single weather station in Newcastle (Nobby's) to claim no pattern of warming exists—a classic example of cherry-picking data while ignoring the broader evidence showing temperatures are warming across Australia. The Impact Analysis: Political Consequences of Climate Denial One Nation's climate denial positions have significant political implications in Australia. Research from CSIRO a decade ago suggested that views on climate change can be influenced by how a person votes, rather than the other way around. This means votes for One Nation could lead more people to reject established climate science. Dr. John Cook, an expert on climate science denial, notes that One Nation is "not only out of touch with the scientific evidence, they're even out of touch with the rest of the climate denial community." Over the past decade, climate misinformation has transitioned from science denial to attacking climate solutions, as the scientific evidence for human-caused global warming has become undeniable. Prof. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist at Australian National University, emphasizes: "There's a wealth of evidence that extreme heat events are increasing worldwide since the 1950s. We see increased intensity of droughts and heatwaves and the intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing." The Prediction: Future of Climate Politics in Australia As climate impacts worsen in Australia—with more frequent and intense heatwaves, bushfires, and extreme weather events—One Nation's climate denial stance may become increasingly untenable politically. The party's net zero conspiracies, including claims that climate action is part of a plot to create a "socialist Australia," are based on misinformation and misrepresentations of statements by figures like former World Economic Forum chair Klaus Schwab. One Nation's assertions that renewable energy is causing electricity price increases are also contradicted by experts. Research from CSIRO suggests that if 82% of Australia's electricity came from renewables backed by storage, the cost of generation would be a third less than current prices. The real drivers of rising electricity costs are aging infrastructure and rising international gas prices, not the transition to renewables. As Australia faces increasing climate impacts, political parties that reject established climate science may find themselves increasingly isolated, both scientifically and politically. The future of Australian climate politics may depend on how mainstream parties respond to One Nation's misinformation and whether they can effectively communicate the scientific consensus on climate change.

The Lead: Trump's Nine-Hour Prayer Rally on National MallThe administration of United States President Donald Trump has hosted a nine-hour prayer event on the National Mall in Washington, DC, as part of its efforts to commemorate the country's 250th anniversary. Sunday's event, called "Rededicate 250: A National Jubilee of Prayer, Praise and Thanksgiving," took place from 9am to 6pm Eastern US time (13:00 to 22:00 GMT) with the stated aim of marking "rededication of our country as One Nation to God."The Event Details: A Celebration of Faith and Political AlignmentThe event featured performers, pastors and civil rights leaders, as well as Trump's Republican allies, among them Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina. "Our rights don't come from the government," Scott told the crowd. "No, our rights come from God, the king of kings." Members of the Trump administration, including the president himself, recorded video messages that were broadcast from the stage.Trump's video showed him seated behind the Resolute Desk in the White House, reciting a speech from the Book of Chronicles that God gave to King Solomon, promising protection to his followers and destruction to those who forsake him. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, used his video to describe the US as a country uniquely shaped by the "Christian idea.""Before the Christian West, most societies – and civilisations, for that matter – thought in stagnant cycles: the flooding of the Nile, the return of the rains, the cycle of the harvest. History for them was a wheel to nowhere," Rubio said. "But our faith calls us outwards into the limitless darkness of the unknown. It tells us to go forth and preach the gospel to the world as a witness unto all nations and to the ends of the earth."The Data Analysis: Shifting Religious Attitudes in AmericaA survey from the Pew Research Center released last week found a slight uptick in the number of US adults who believe Christianity should be named as the country's official religion. Seventeen percent now share that view, up from 13 percent in 2024. That said, Pew researchers noted that a majority of Americans, roughly 54 percent, still believe in the separation of church and state.About 52 percent also said that "conservative Christians have gone too far in trying to push their religious values in the government and public schools."The Impact Analysis: Blurring Lines Between Church and StateThe event was not without controversy. Critics pointed out that only one speaker, a rabbi, was non-Christian. Some religious leaders rejected the event as a political stunt, rather than a sincere testament to faith.Paul Raushenbush, a reverend and president of the Interfaith Alliance, posted on social media that his objections did not stem from an "antipathy towards religion". Rather, he said his faith compels him to cherish the "rich tapestry of beliefs" that come together in the US."Rededicate 250 is a betrayal of America's founding values guaranteed in the First Amendment – which made clear that there shall be no establishment of religion by the government and that each one of us should be free to live out our beliefs in our own way," Raushenbush wrote.Traditionally, the Establishment Clause of the US Constitution has been interpreted as prohibiting the government from establishing or imposing religious beliefs on its citizens. But critics argue the Trump administration has blurred the separation between church and state, including by having regular prayer services at the Department of Defense.Trump, however, has accused the federal government of "anti-Christian bias". He launched a task force last year to root out the purported discrimination.The Prediction: Evangelical Base and Constitutional InterpretationEvangelical Christians form a pillar in Trump's right-wing base of support. The demographic is a powerful force during election seasons in the US, and Trump has sought to rally Christian voters ahead of major votes. Their views could reshape how the US Constitution is interpreted, particularly regarding the separation of church and state.As the country approaches its 250th anniversary, the debate over religious expression in public life is likely to intensify. With Trump positioning himself as a champion of religious conservatives, future policies and judicial appointments may further test the boundaries established by the First Amendment.

Podcast Overview: Chalmers Responds to Budget CriticsIn the Full Story podcast released on 15 May 2026, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers directly answers the criticisms leveled at the Labor government’s 2026 budget. The discussion centers on how the budget aims to benefit younger Australians, the contentious reforms to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), and recent changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing.Key Issues Highlighted in Linked AnalysesLabor’s budget will benefit the young – but does little to woo voters drawn to One NationNDIS cuts could leave some participants with a funding gap. How will the changes affect you?Budget capital gains tax changes and negative gearing reform explainedPolicy Highlights and Their Political ContextThe budget proposes targeted measures for first‑time home buyers and reforms to negative gearing, aiming to balance housing affordability with investor confidence. Simultaneously, the NDIS reforms introduce stricter eligibility criteria, prompting concerns about a potential funding gap for participants.Potential Impact on Voter SentimentBy emphasizing youth‑focused initiatives, the Labor government hopes to solidify support among younger voters, a demographic traditionally less aligned with the party. However, criticism from One Nation and concerns over NDIS cuts could sway undecided voters toward opposition parties.Outlook: What Comes Next for the 2026 BudgetChalmers’ defense suggests the government will continue to promote the budget’s long‑term economic benefits while monitoring the immediate social impacts of NDIS changes. Future parliamentary debates and state‑level feedback will likely shape any adjustments before the next fiscal review.

The Lead: IndyCar's Political CrossroadsAs IndyCar prepares for the 110th running of the Indianapolis 500, the sport finds itself embroiled in controversy over a promotional T-shirt that has sparked accusations of insensitivity and political messaging. The incident reveals a significant rightward shift in the organization's direction under owner Roger Penske, who has increasingly aligned himself with former President Donald Trump and conservative politics.The Controversial 'One Nation, One Race' ShirtAs part of its promotional push for the Freedom 250, a Washington DC street race sanctioned by a Trump executive order, IndyCar unveiled a licensed T-shirt featuring a helmeted racing driver rendered entirely in white, posed in a manner resembling the Lincoln Memorial statue, set against a red-striped backdrop, with the words "One Nation, One Race."The design quickly drew criticism online, with many noting its problematic imagery. Automotive writer Ryan Erik King slammed the shirt on X as "incredibly insensitive and inflammatory." Critics pointed to the Roman fasces the driver's arms rest on—iconography later adopted by fascist movements—as particularly concerning. The stark white racing driver set against Lincoln's seat, combined with the Freedom 250's association with Trump, sharpened these concerns.Following customer backlash, IndyCar pulled the shirt from its online store, stating it was "reviewing its approval process related to event apparel." However, the organization has not explained who approved the design initially.Penske's Political Alignment and Financial ContributionsThe controversy cannot be separated from IndyCar's owner, Roger Penske, who has become increasingly aligned with Trump since purchasing the organization. Penske's drivers and teams have appeared at the White House after major wins, and Trump awarded Penske the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2019.In the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, Penske Corp reportedly made more than $4 million in political contributions, including $1.1 million to MAGA Inc. Penske has been publicly effusive in his support for Trump, writing in a February letter: "Thank you for all that you and your administration are doing to put 'America First', to protect our borders, and return investment to our great country."This political alignment stands in contrast to IndyCar's international makeup, with nearly 70% of full-time drivers racing under foreign flags, including one-third of Penske's own IndyCar drivers.The Impact on IndyCar's Position in MotorsportIndyCar has historically positioned itself as maintaining political neutrality, unlike NASCAR which leans into American jingoism and conservative cultural signaling. Two years ago, IndyCar rejected a Trump/RFK Jr car livery for the 500, citing its policy against political sponsorships—a stance that now appears to be shifting.The organization's closer alignment with Trump has drawn criticism from within the racing community. When the Department of Homeland Security used an IndyCar image to promote a proposed immigration detention facility in Indiana dubbed the "Speedway Slammer," Mexican driver Pato O'Ward expressed his discomfort: "I was just a little bit shocked at the coincidences of that and, you know, of what it means. I don't think it made a lot of people proud, to say the least."This political shift threatens IndyCar's unique position in motorsport, potentially alienating international drivers and fans while attempting to close the gap on NASCAR and Formula One in terms of cultural relevance.Future Outlook for IndyCarAs IndyCar continues to navigate this political crossroads, the organization faces a critical juncture. Penske's bid to elevate IndyCar's prominence may be undermined by the alienation of its international fan base and drivers. The controversy over the 'One Nation, One Race' shirt serves as a stark reminder of the risks when sports organizations become entangled in political polarization.IndyCar must now decide whether to double down on its rightward shift or recalibrate to maintain its traditionally more neutral stance. The organization's ability to navigate this tension will likely determine its future trajectory in an increasingly polarized sports landscape.

The LeadNumerous Football Associations have been hit by increased prices when buying World Cup tickets for their players' family and friends, with teams competing at the tournament affected by Fifa's dynamic pricing model.The FIFA Dynamic Pricing ModelWhile Fifa offered all national associations that have qualified for the World Cup a six-week window to buy tickets at a fixed price after the draw in December, any requests for tickets from the end of January have been subject to what Fifa describes as "adaptive pricing", with the cost rising for most matches.The Financial Impact on Football AssociationsAn executive at one national association said they had requested hundreds of additional tickets in recent weeks and have been surprised at the size of the bill. An executive at another association claimed the average cost of securing attendance at matches for their players' family and their guests has risen to about $3,000 (£2,200) a ticket after extra purchases, a significant additional cost that will eat into their tournament funding.Industry Response and ConcernsMany national associations have privately expressed surprise by the price increases, although Fifa sources insist the terms and conditions of sale were made clear at the outset and that FAs who responded to their deadlines on time should not have experienced price rises. There are concerns that smaller countries with the lowest budgets will be worst affected by the price rises.Future Outlook for World Cup TicketingOutside Fifa's marketplace, ticket prices on other resale platforms appear to be falling. According to TicketData.com, which tracks prices from a number of resellers, including StubHub, SeatGeek and Vivid Seats, the cheapest available ticket for 87 of the 91 matches in the US and Canada has fallen over the past 14 days.

The Budget Decision That Favors Fossil Fuels Despite growing momentum for climate action, the upcoming Australian federal budget is poised to support fossil fuel industries by rejecting proposed reforms to gas taxation and fuel tax credits. This decision comes as 57 national governments meet in Colombia for the first international conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, with France setting ambitious targets to remove coal by 2027 and end fossil fuel dependency by 2050. The Gas Tax Campaign and Its Unexpected Support A campaign for a 25% levy on gas exports has gained remarkable cross-political support, from the Greens and One Nation to independent MPs like David Pocock and potential Liberal leader Andrew Hastie. The movement also includes influencers, unions, heavyweight economists, former bureaucrats, ex-gas industry executives, and the broader environment movement. According to an Essential poll, 57% of voters support taxing gas export profits, with only 12% opposed. Economic Implications of the Rejected Reforms The rejected measures could have significantly impacted Australia's budget deficit and reduced implicit subsidies for multinational fossil fuel companies. The Australia Institute estimates a 25% gas tax would have yielded about $70 billion if introduced when Labor was elected in 2022. Former Treasury chief Ken Henry has even argued for a 100% windfall profits tax, suggesting substantial economic benefits that the government appears willing to forego. Political Calculations Behind the Decision Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has assured the gas industry that existing contracts won't change, linking his stance to the global fossil fuel crisis and emphasizing the importance of maintaining relationships with countries that buy Australia's fossil fuels. This political message, rather than technical considerations, appears to be driving the government's position, despite Treasury officials indicating that a 25% tax wouldn't affect existing contracts. The Fuel Tax Credit Controversy Parallel to the gas tax debate, the fuel tax credit scheme—which gives miners full rebates on the 52.6 cents per liter diesel excise—has faced increasing criticism. Mining magnate Andrew Forrest's company Fortescue launched an advertising campaign highlighting that 18 major mining companies receive $3 billion annually in diesel rebates while households struggle with rising living costs. The ACTU and Climate Change Authority chair Matt Kean have described continuing these rebates as "insane." Global Influences on Domestic Policy The government's decision to maintain the status quo on both issues has been influenced by global events, particularly the US-Israel war on Iran, which has pushed diesel prices skyward. This development has complicated efforts to reform the diesel rebate scheme, with the government prioritizing fuel security during a period of international instability. The Climate Action Gap While the government supports renewable energy and batteries, there is limited enthusiasm for addressing the need to reduce fossil fuel promotion and usage. This gap between climate commitments and actual policy underscores the challenges in transitioning away from fossil fuels, even as Australia's trading partners begin to seriously address the need to phase out coal, oil, and gas within the next couple of decades. Hope for Future Reform Despite the current setbacks, campaigners remain optimistic about the surge of cross-community support for a gas tax this year. The unprecedented pressure on an issue that previously had little traction suggests that change may be possible in the future, regardless of the immediate budget decisions. The movement plans to continue pushing for reform, viewing this moment as a critical step in a longer journey toward climate action.

The United Front: Tehran’s Response to US AllegationsUS President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Iran is fractured, but Tehran's top officials have vehemently rejected these assertions, presenting a unified front to counter the narrative.In a coordinated effort, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Mohammad Reza Aref jointly issued a statement on X, dismissing Trump's claims of a leadership rift. The message emphasized "iron unity" and "complete obedience to the Supreme Leader of the Revolution."Masoud Pezeshkian and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf joined the Supreme National Security Council in posting the message.Mohammad Reza Aref added an English translation, stating, "Iran is not a land of rifts, but a stronghold of unity... We are one soul, one nation."Despite Trump alleging "crazy" infighting, Iranian officials insist the military and diplomatic fronts are fully coordinated.Market Volatility: The Economic Cost of EscalationThe political rhetoric is directly impacting global markets, driven by a "double blockade" in the Gulf.Oil prices are rising due to uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the US naval siege on Iranian ports.Trump has threatened to "shoot and kill" Iranian boats laying mines in the strategic waterway.The diplomatic impasse is largely attributed to the US blockade on Iranian ports, which has stalled previously scheduled talks in Pakistan.Shifting Geopolitics: Israel’s Readiness to Re-EngageThe regional security landscape is shifting as Israel signals a return to hostilities.Israel Katz, the Israeli Defense Minister, stated on Thursday that his country is awaiting a green light from Trump to return Iran to the "age of darkness."He confirmed that the Israeli military is ready for both defense and offense, with targets already marked.The situation remains tenuous, with air defenses activated over Tehran despite no official confirmation of an attack.The Path Forward: A Fragile Truce in the GulfWhile the US maintains a blockade to inflict economic pain without resuming full-scale war, the status quo is proving unstable.Trump has suggested a deal will only be made when it is "appropriate and good for the United States," indicating a reluctance to rush to a conclusion.The death of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (replacing his father Ali Khamenei) adds a layer of instability, with reports suggesting he is gravely wounded but mentally sharp.As the region teeters on the brink, the "one soul" rhetoric from Tehran serves as a defensive mechanism against internal and external pressure.

President Donald Trump's ambitious plan to erect a colossal arch in Washington, DC, has cleared a significant hurdle with the US Commission of Fine Arts giving its approval to the proposed design. The arch, which would stand at 76 meters (250 feet) high, is intended to be built on Memorial Circle, between the Arlington National Cemetery and the Lincoln Memorial. The commission's approval is a crucial step forward for the project, which has faced criticism and legal challenges. The arch would be significantly larger than the Lincoln Memorial, which stands at 99 feet (30 meters) tall, and approximately twice as tall as the famous Arc de Triomphe in Paris, which the design resembles. The proposed monument, dubbed the 'Triumphal Arch,' would feature the phrases 'One Nation Under God' and 'Liberty and Justice for All' in gold lettering atop either side. However, the design has faced opposition, with about three out of every four people who delivered public comments expressing opposition, many citing its enormous size. Criticism has also centered on the potential impact on views of the national cemetery, a resting place for war veterans. Public Citizen Litigation Group is representing some Vietnam War veterans in a lawsuit against the proposed construction, arguing that it needs congressional approval. Even within the Commission of Fine Arts, there was some dissent. James McCrery II, the vice chair, suggested modifications to the design, including removing the winged statue and eagles on top and the lions at its base, citing that African animals are 'not a beast natural to the North American continent.' The project is part of Trump's efforts to leave his mark on the physical landscape of Washington, DC. The commission still needs to vote on final approval for the proposal after reviewing updated designs. If given final approval, the arch would tower above other landmarks in the national capital.