One Nation's Climate Science Denial: Why Australia's Populist Party Is Out of Step With Evidence

The Lead: One Nation's Standalone Climate Denial

As the populist right-wing One Nation party gains momentum in Australian polls, it maintains a firm stance against decades of climate science evidence showing the planet and Australia are warming. The party claims to be the only political force in Australia questioning climate science, but experts say this position is not only scientifically baseless but increasingly out of step with global trends in climate misinformation.

The Event Details: One Nation's Climate Contradictions

One Nation's position on climate change is rooted in denial and conspiracy theories, despite overwhelming scientific evidence. The party's energy and climate policies have previously been literal cut-and-pastes from the now-defunct climate denial group the Galileo Movement. Currently, One Nation rejects the scientific consensus that the planet and Australia are warming, claiming extreme weather was more prevalent before 1960—a position climate scientists have compared to believing the Earth is flat.

The party also wants Australia to leave the Paris Agreement and would push to close down the federal climate change department "and all related agencies, regulations and programs." They proudly declare: "We are the only political party to question climate science."

The Data Analysis: Australia's Unequivocal Warming Trend

Despite One Nation's claims, Australia has experienced significant warming since 1910. The Bureau of Meteorology's official long-term climate dataset shows Australia has warmed by 1.5°C since 1910. Temperature readings before this period are not included in the official dataset because they were often taken with non-standardized equipment, making them less reliable.

Research into pre-1910 temperature records shows temperatures from 1860 to 1909 were similar to those from 1910 to 1959. Since 1960, both maximum and minimum temperatures have risen significantly. The independent Berkeley Earth group's analysis of historical temperature data confirms Australia has warmed substantially since the 1880s.

One Nation points to a single weather station in Newcastle (Nobby's) to claim no pattern of warming exists—a classic example of cherry-picking data while ignoring the broader evidence showing temperatures are warming across Australia.

The Impact Analysis: Political Consequences of Climate Denial

One Nation's climate denial positions have significant political implications in Australia. Research from CSIRO a decade ago suggested that views on climate change can be influenced by how a person votes, rather than the other way around. This means votes for One Nation could lead more people to reject established climate science.

Dr. John Cook, an expert on climate science denial, notes that One Nation is "not only out of touch with the scientific evidence, they're even out of touch with the rest of the climate denial community." Over the past decade, climate misinformation has transitioned from science denial to attacking climate solutions, as the scientific evidence for human-caused global warming has become undeniable.

Prof. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist at Australian National University, emphasizes: "There's a wealth of evidence that extreme heat events are increasing worldwide since the 1950s. We see increased intensity of droughts and heatwaves and the intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing."

The Prediction: Future of Climate Politics in Australia

As climate impacts worsen in Australia—with more frequent and intense heatwaves, bushfires, and extreme weather events—One Nation's climate denial stance may become increasingly untenable politically. The party's net zero conspiracies, including claims that climate action is part of a plot to create a "socialist Australia," are based on misinformation and misrepresentations of statements by figures like former World Economic Forum chair Klaus Schwab.

One Nation's assertions that renewable energy is causing electricity price increases are also contradicted by experts. Research from CSIRO suggests that if 82% of Australia's electricity came from renewables backed by storage, the cost of generation would be a third less than current prices. The real drivers of rising electricity costs are aging infrastructure and rising international gas prices, not the transition to renewables.

As Australia faces increasing climate impacts, political parties that reject established climate science may find themselves increasingly isolated, both scientifically and politically. The future of Australian climate politics may depend on how mainstream parties respond to One Nation's misinformation and whether they can effectively communicate the scientific consensus on climate change.