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The Leadership Shift in Iraq Iraqi President Nizar Amedi has named Ali al-Zaidi as prime minister-designate, and tasked him with forming a government, Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Iraq has reported. The Candidate Selection Process Al-Zaidi was named earlier on Monday as the candidate of the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Shia parties that has a majority in parliament. The Coordination Framework said that Ali al-Maliki and outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani had withdrawn their candidacies. The Data Analysis The choice of al-Zaidi breaks a months-long deadlock in which US President Donald Trump had himself intervened, after former two-time Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki emerged as the Coordination Framework’s initial candidate. The Impact Analysis Al-Maliki, who is close to Iran, was fiercely opposed by Trump, who warned that all support to Iraq would stop if he became prime minister. The Prediction With al-Zaidi as prime minister-designate, the next steps will involve him forming a government. The success of this process and the subsequent governance will be critical in determining the future political stability of Iraq.

The United States has escalated financial pressure on Baghdad by blocking a $500m shipment of Iraqi oil dollars and pausing security cooperation, signaling a hardline stance against Iran-aligned militias during the ongoing conflict with Iran.Key DevelopmentsFinancial Blockade: The US Department of the Treasury blocked a recent cargo plane shipment carrying nearly $500m in US banknotes, which were proceeds from Iraqi oil revenues held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.Security Pauses: Washington has paused some security cooperation programmes with the Iraqi military, a move aimed at increasing pressure on Baghdad.Repeated Action: This is the second scheduled dollar shipment to Iraq’s central bank delayed by Washington since the US-Israel war on Iran began in late February.Targeting Proxies: The move follows attacks claimed by Iran-aligned groups inside Iraq targeting US military facilities and neighboring countries.Data & Market ImpactThe suspension of these transfers represents a significant economic lever. Since the 2003 invasion, Washington has managed tens of billions of dollars of Iraqi oil proceeds at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Large shipments of cash are sent back to Baghdad annually to stabilize the economy, creating a system where Iraq’s financial stability is heavily dependent on US-controlled channels.By holding these funds, the US effectively controls the flow of hard currency into Iraq, allowing it to influence the country’s economic stability and political alignment without direct military occupation.Why This MattersThis move places Iraq in a precarious geopolitical position. As the war with Iran intensifies, Iraq is caught between its historical reliance on Iranian support and its need for US security guarantees and economic aid.Economic Stability: Iraq’s government relies on these dollar shipments to function. A prolonged halt could lead to liquidity shortages, affecting public services and the exchange rate of the Iraqi Dinar.Regional Tensions: The pressure is designed to force Iraq’s hand against powerful Iran-aligned groups, such as those within the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). Failure to comply could lead to further US military strikes against these factions.Historical Leverage: The US is utilizing a legacy of the 2003 invasion—control of oil revenues—to exert influence over a sovereign nation, highlighting the enduring complexity of post-war Iraq.Expert InsightAnalysts suggest this is a calculated strategy to isolate Iraq from Tehran. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani faces a difficult balancing act; he requires US support for a second term while simultaneously needing to appease Iran-backed militias to maintain internal stability.The blocking of funds serves as a warning that continued attacks on US interests will result in economic isolation. It forces Iraq to choose a side in the broader regional conflict, potentially alienating its powerful domestic militias if it bows to US pressure.What Happens NextNegotiations: Iraq’s central bank will likely seek to negotiate with the US Treasury to restore the flow of funds, citing the need to maintain economic stability.Escalation of Proxy Attacks: Iran-aligned groups may respond to the financial pressure by increasing attacks on US interests in the region to force Baghdad to resist US demands.Policy Shift: Iraq may be compelled to take more aggressive action against PMF factions to prove its loyalty to Washington, potentially destabilizing the country’s internal security apparatus.

Political Vacuum in Iraq: Five Months Without a Government More than five months after parliamentary elections, Iraq's Coordination Framework - the largest parliamentary bloc of Shia parties - has failed to choose its prime ministerial candidate amid intense internal power struggles. The country faces a constitutional deadline of April 26 to form a government while balancing delicate diplomatic ties between the United States and Iran, both of whom exert significant influence over Iraqi politics. The Power Struggle Within Iraq's Shia Bloc The Coordination Framework, which commands approximately 185 of 329 seats in parliament, is locked in a battle between incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who seeks a second term, and the bloc led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki - a pro-Iran figure whose candidacy is opposed by the United States. The Framework's general secretariat has called a meeting with a single agenda item: selecting the prime ministerial candidate, as previous meetings were postponed due to disagreements among leaders. The Iranian and American Mediation Efforts Iran's Quds Force head, Ismail Qaani, made an unannounced visit to Baghdad aimed at breaking the leadership deadlock. The visit came at the request of caretaker Prime Minister al-Sudani to convince the Shia Coordination Framework not to nominate Bassem al-Badri, who is aligned with Maliki. Meanwhile, the US has explicitly opposed al-Maliki's candidacy, with President Trump threatening to halt support for Iraq if he's elected, citing concerns about Iran's influence through his leadership. Economic Pressures and Constitutional Deadlines Iraq faces mounting economic challenges with customs tariffs reaching as high as 30% on some goods, a reinstated 20% sales tax on mobile phone recharge cards, and over 90 trillion dinars ($69 billion) in debt. The country's state budget remains dependent on oil for roughly 90% of revenues, all while being without a fully functioning government for over five months. Adding to the pressure, a US presidential executive order protecting Iraqi oil revenues at the Federal Reserve Bank is set to expire in May, potentially exposing those assets to creditors. Regional Power Dynamics and Iraqi Sovereignty The political crisis in Iraq reflects the broader regional power struggle between the United States and Iran. Pro-Iranian armed groups have carried out attacks on US assets in solidarity with Tehran during the US-Israel war on Iran, while the US has designated seven militia commanders from Iran-aligned factions. This delicate balancing act has exposed Iraq's vulnerability to external influences and raised questions about the country's sovereignty as political actors appear to be waiting for the outcome of regional conflicts to determine the next government. Sectarian Divisions and Power-Sharing System The political appointments highlight Iraq's persistent sectarian and ethnic divisions under the power-sharing system (Muhasasa) established after the 2003 US-led invasion. With the presidency now filled by Kurdish politician Nizar Amedi, the speakership reserved for Sunni Arabs, and the prime minister position designated for Shia Arabs, the formation of a government remains critical to maintaining this delicate balance. The prolonged vacuum risks exacerbating existing tensions and potentially destabilizing the country's fragile democratic institutions. Path Forward: Weak Prime Minister or Strong Leadership? As the April 26 deadline approaches, the Coordination Framework appears to be leaning toward selecting a weaker prime minister candidate like Bassem al-Badri who would not challenge the bloc's authority, rather than stronger figures like al-Sudani or al-Maliki. However, the final outcome may depend on the results of negotiations between Iran and the United States regarding the regional conflict. Regardless of who is chosen, the next Iraqi government will face the monumental task of addressing economic crises, rebuilding international relations, and asserting greater independence from external influences while navigating the complex regional power dynamics.

The Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, has announced that it will release Shelly Kittleson, a journalist from the United States. Kittleson was abducted in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad on March 31, prompting calls for her release from press freedom groups.The group said on Tuesday that Kittleson would be freed on the condition that she leave Iraq immediately. An anonymous Iraqi official confirmed her release to The Associated Press on Tuesday afternoon.Kittleson, a 49-year-old freelance reporter, had been kept in detention in Baghdad. Her release comes at a moment of heightened tension in Iraq, where Iran-backed groups have carried out attacks on US forces amid the US-Israel war on Iran.The decision to release Kittleson was reportedly made in response to 'the national stances of the outgoing prime minister' of Iraq, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, a security official with the group, warned that the 'exceptional gesture' would not be repeated again.The Associated Press reported that Kittleson was released in exchange for several imprisoned Kataib Hezbollah members, citing anonymous members of the militia. During her detention, publications Kittleson had worked for, including Al-Monitor, praised her for her commitment to covering conflicts in the Middle East.

American journalist Shelly Kittleson, who was kidnapped from a Baghdad street corner last week, has been released, according to an Iraqi official with direct knowledge of the situation. Kittleson was freed in the afternoon, and before her release, she had been held in Baghdad.The powerful Iran-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah said in a statement earlier in the day it had decided to free Kittleson, who was abducted on March 31. The group said its decision came “in appreciation of the patriotic stances of the outgoing prime minister”, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, without giving more details. It added: “This initiative will not be repeated in the future.”The statement also included a condition – that Kittleson must “leave the country immediately” upon her release. Kittleson, 49, a freelance journalist, had lived abroad for years before the kidnapping, using Rome as her base for a time and building a respected journalism career across the Middle East, particularly in Iraq and Syria.Kataib Hezbollah has previously been accused of kidnapping foreigners, including Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Princeton graduate student with Israeli and Russian citizenship, who disappeared in Baghdad in 2023 and was freed in September 2025. The group never officially claimed responsibility for kidnapping her.Iran-backed militias in Iraq have also launched regular attacks on US facilities in the country since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Iraq is facing a balancing act as the US-Israeli war on Iran exposes deep divisions within the country. The conflict has highlighted the divisions between those who view the attacks on Iran as a means to end Tehran's longstanding influence over Iraqi politics and those who are loyal to the Islamic republic. The war has struck Iraq during a precarious power vacuum, following the stepping aside of caretaker leader Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, whose coalition won the largest share of seats in November's parliamentary elections. This power vacuum has exacerbated tensions, with factions from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella body of Iran-backed armed groups, vowing to drag the US into a long war of attrition. The group has claimed responsibility for numerous drone and missile attacks on targets in Iraq and neighboring countries, including the US base in Erbil and the city's international airport. In response, unclaimed airstrikes attributed to US and Israeli forces have hit positions across the country, killing several commanders and fighters. Iraqi leaders are attempting to maintain a balancing act, denouncing the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei while rejecting attempts by Tehran to draw Iraq into the conflict. However, this balancing act is complicated by the fact that pro-Iran groups are also members of the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU), a sprawling institution that operates with its own agenda. The conflict has significant implications for Iraq's stability and economy, with a looming financial disaster hanging over the country due to the crisis over the strait of Hormuz and the loss of oil revenue. The US pressure and threat of sanctions have forced some members of the pro-Iran Shia alliance in Iraq's parliament to distance themselves from more militant factions. The killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has also had a profound impact on the Iraqi resistance factions, which have struggled to respond effectively to the recent war. The insider close to the pro-Iran factions noted that the killing of Nasrallah has affected the Iraqi resistance factions more than the killing of Khamenei, as Nasrallah had a direct appeal to many commanders.