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Apr 03, 2026

Iraq's Delicate Balance: US-Iran Conflict Exposes Deep Divisions

AI Summary
The US-Israeli war on Iran has exposed deep rifts in Iraq, dividing those who see the attacks as a way to end Tehran's influence and self-declared loyalists of the Islamic republic. The conflict has cut through state institutions, armed forces, and Shia Islamist parties.

Iraq is facing a balancing act as the US-Israeli war on Iran exposes deep divisions within the country. The conflict has highlighted the divisions between those who view the attacks on Iran as a means to end Tehran's longstanding influence over Iraqi politics and those who are loyal to the Islamic republic.

The war has struck Iraq during a precarious power vacuum, following the stepping aside of caretaker leader Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, whose coalition won the largest share of seats in November's parliamentary elections. This power vacuum has exacerbated tensions, with factions from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella body of Iran-backed armed groups, vowing to drag the US into a long war of attrition.

The group has claimed responsibility for numerous drone and missile attacks on targets in Iraq and neighboring countries, including the US base in Erbil and the city's international airport. In response, unclaimed airstrikes attributed to US and Israeli forces have hit positions across the country, killing several commanders and fighters.

Iraqi leaders are attempting to maintain a balancing act, denouncing the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei while rejecting attempts by Tehran to draw Iraq into the conflict. However, this balancing act is complicated by the fact that pro-Iran groups are also members of the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU), a sprawling institution that operates with its own agenda.

The conflict has significant implications for Iraq's stability and economy, with a looming financial disaster hanging over the country due to the crisis over the strait of Hormuz and the loss of oil revenue. The US pressure and threat of sanctions have forced some members of the pro-Iran Shia alliance in Iraq's parliament to distance themselves from more militant factions.

The killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has also had a profound impact on the Iraqi resistance factions, which have struggled to respond effectively to the recent war. The insider close to the pro-Iran factions noted that the killing of Nasrallah has affected the Iraqi resistance factions more than the killing of Khamenei, as Nasrallah had a direct appeal to many commanders.