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Redwan Hussein (L), Representative of the Ethiopian government, and Getachew Reda (R), Representative of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), sign a peace agreement between the two parties during a press conference regarding the African Union‑led negotiations to resolve conflict in Ethiopia at the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) offices in Pretoria on November 2, 2022. [Phill Magakoe/AFP] Executive Summary: A Call to Preserve the 2022 Peace Accord The Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front have reiterated that the nation must not be pulled back into war, emphasizing the need to honor the November 2022 peace agreement. This warning comes amid lingering mistrust, sporadic clashes, and a delicate regional balance that could be destabilized by any escalation. The Fragile Peace After the November 2022 Agreement The agreement signed on November 2, 2022 in Pretoria, brokered by the African Union, marked the formal cessation of large‑scale hostilities that had devastated the Tigray region since 2020. While the ceasefire has largely held, implementation gaps—particularly around disarmament, humanitarian access, and political representation—remain sources of tension. Regional Stakes and International Involvement African Union: Continues to lead mediation, deploying a high‑level envoy to monitor compliance. Neighbouring States: Ethiopia’s stability is critical for Sudan, South Sudan, and Eritrea, all of which face their own security challenges. Global Actors: The United Nations and European Union maintain humanitarian and development programmes contingent on sustained peace. Risks of Escalation: What Could Trigger a Return to War Key flashpoints include disputed border demarcations, competition over federal resources, and the integration of former TPLF combatants into national security forces. Any misstep in these areas could reignite armed confrontations, undoing years of reconstruction. Outlook: Pathways to Sustainable Stability Analysts stress that durable peace will require: Transparent implementation of the 2022 accord’s provisions. Inclusive political dialogue that addresses Tigray’s autonomy concerns. Continued African Union oversight paired with targeted international support. If these conditions are met, Ethiopia can transition from a post‑conflict recovery phase to a period of long‑term stability and development.

The fragile peace in Ethiopia is shattering as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has formally reinstated the Tigray Government Assembly, effectively nullifying the 2022 Pretoria Agreement and signaling a potential return to hostilities.The Collapse of the Pretoria FrameworkThe TPLF announced via Facebook that its central committee had decided to reinstate the suspended parliament, arguing that the federal government had violated the terms of the peace deal. The party accused the federal administration of withholding funds to pay civil servants and provoking armed conflict within the region. Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF figure, described this move as a "clear repudiation" of the post-war structure established by the African Union.Humanitarian Crisis MetricsThe region is facing a catastrophic recovery phase. The previous conflict resulted in at least 600,000 deaths and 5 million displaced persons. Furthermore, humanitarian assessments indicate that up to 80% of the population requires emergency support due to severe funding shortfalls, particularly following recent US aid cuts.Regional Instability and Diplomatic FalloutThe move threatens to reignite the complex web of alliances that defined the previous war, involving the Eritrean army. The breakdown in relations between the TPLF and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who ended the TPLF's decades-long dominance in 2018, suggests a deepening rift that could destabilize the Horn of Africa.Forecast: A Return to Conflict?Analysts predict a high probability of renewed clashes. With the suspension of the peace deal and the federal government accused of violating the Pretoria Agreement, the window for diplomatic resolution is closing. The international community faces a critical test in preventing a humanitarian catastrophe in Tigray as the conflict risks escalating beyond regional borders.