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The Looming Threat of a 'Super' El Niño A powerful, or “super” El Niño – marked by 2C (3.6F) or greater increase in sea surface temperatures – is now highly probable for this year, lasting into 2027. Weakened trade winds allow warm surface waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific. This disrupts ocean circulation and alters weather patterns worldwide. Exacerbating Global Economic Inequality El Niño is intensifying an already unequal global economy. Food insecurity is not simply a climatic problem, but rooted in dependency and global market integration, while climate shocks expose how supply chains push risk on to the world’s poorest populations. 10 Potential Worst-Case Scenarios What follows are 10 potential worst-case scenarios – impacts that will not be evenly felt but disproportionately borne by poorer farmers and workers. Drought Drought hits rain-fed agricultural regions particularly hard. In parts of sub-Saharan Africa grain yields often fall during and following El Niño’s, increasing import dependence and raising food prices. Shock to global food supply chains Globally, there is a heightened risk of a shock to global food supply chains. Four crops – wheat, rice, maize and soybeans – provide more than 60% of the world’s calorie intake. Wildfire risk El Niño can heighten wildfire risk in some regions. In South America, it often reduces wet‑season rainfall, leaving vegetation drier and more fire‑prone; severe fires in Brazil in 2016 and 2024 burned millions of hectares. Excess rainfall Parts of the southern United States and South America, the Horn of Africa and central Asia often experience excess rainfall during El Niño, leading to flooding. Increased coal consumption Greater heat can increase already high levels of coal consumption in parts of the world. El Niño brings above-average temperatures and intensifies prolonged heatwaves in south Asia by weakening monsoon rains, which increases demand for air conditioning. Coal-based power systems in Asia supply about 70% of electricity in India and approximately 55% in China. Grid failure risk Drought also affects hydropower generation, increasing risk of grid failures. Colombia, for example, relies upon hydropower for about 65% of its energy generation. Declining fish stocks El Niño stops cool water upwelling in parts of the Pacific, limiting nutrient availability for phytoplankton and leaving small fish such as anchovies and sardines without enough food. Heightened geopolitical tensions over critical agricultural inputs More extreme weather could exacerbate geopolitical tensions. Rising temperatures reduce crop fertility and farmers often respond by applying more fertilizers. Higher rates of heat illness All these dynamics affect societies unequally. Workers exposed to heat stress face heightened health risks, particularly in physically demanding jobs such as agriculture and construction. Civil conflict Reduced crop yields and weakened economies often intensify social tensions. The likelihood of civil conflict in affected tropical countries can double during El Niño years. The Way Forward There is also extensive knowledge on building resilient agricultural systems that can generate food security while contributing to ecosystem restoration. But again, breaking out of an export-orientated, chemically intensive agricultural system will take large-scale political transformations.

The Crisis in the British Food Scene The British food scene, once hailed as a global culinary leader, is facing a crisis. Despite a decades-long gastro boom, many restaurants are struggling to stay afloat. Richard Wilkins, chef and owner of Michelin-listed Restaurant 104 in west London, recently closed his business after seven years, citing brutal financial pressures. The Financial Pressures Facing Restaurants Wilkins' decision to close his restaurant was not taken lightly. He had previously worked with Gordon Ramsay at Pétrus and had invested heavily in his business. However, the rising costs of doing business, including business rates and VAT, made it impossible for him to continue. The situation is not unique to Wilkins, with three hospitality sites closing every day in the UK in the first quarter of 2026. The Data Analysis 24 of London's 112 Michelin-starred restaurants have closed since 2021. 52 out of 240 Michelin-starred restaurants in England and Wales have closed since the pandemic. Restaurants have seen menu prices rise by 6%, but the cost of doing business has increased by 8-12%. The Impact Analysis The closures are having a significant impact on the industry, with many restaurateurs struggling to make ends meet. Tom Kerridge, a TV regular and owner of five fine dining pubs and restaurants, says that the revenue isn't there to support the businesses. He believes that government support is urgently needed to prevent further closures. The Prediction If action isn't taken, the British food scene could suffer irreparable damage. Kerridge warns that standards will go down, and ultra-processed foods will start appearing on menus. The skill set in kitchens will disappear, and the industry will lose its creative edge. UK Hospitality has been lobbying hard for government support, and it remains to be seen whether the chancellor will offer a more ambitious package to support the industry.

Campaigners Urge UK Not to Dilute EV Sales MandateEnvironmental groups and the charging industry have warned the government against further weakening the zero‑emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate after an analysis showed an additional 17 million tonnes of CO₂ could be emitted by 2030.Labour’s 2024 Flexibility Loopholes Expand PHEV SalesIn 2024 the Labour government introduced “flexibilities” that let manufacturers sell more plug‑in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) while still meeting headline targets. Carmakers responded with a 48 % rise in PHEV sales.ZEV mandate aims for 80 % electric vehicle sales by 2030.Flexibilities allow a higher share of PHEVs in the sales mix.Industry analysis links the policy change to an extra 59 bn miles driven on petrol and diesel.Projected 17 Million Tonnes of Extra CO₂ Emissions by 2030Department for Transport (DfT) updated forecasts indicate the additional mileage will generate 17 million tonnes of direct CO₂, roughly equivalent to every Ryanair flight departing Europe for a year or the annual emissions of a small country such as Croatia.Extra mileage: 59 bn miles on petrol/diesel.Direct CO₂ increase: 17 million tonnes.Potential electric sales drop from a projected 33 % to as low as 7 % if flexibilities are fully used (New AutoMotive analysis).Consequences for the Charging Industry and Energy SecurityThe reduced uptake of battery‑electric cars threatens the business case for charge‑point investors. Vicky Read, chief executive of ChargeUK, says billions of pounds are being spent on infrastructure based on the original ZEV forecasts.Think‑tank analysts warn that PHEVs “fail to deliver promised fuel savings” and under‑report emissions by about a third, undermining the UK’s energy‑security goals.Future Outlook: Mandate Review and Potential Policy PathsThe government has pledged a further review of the ZEV mandate by early 2027. Colin Walker of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit cautions that additional weakening could push more costly PHEVs onto consumers, increasing ownership costs by “hundreds, even thousands of pounds a year”.Industry lobby Mike Hawes (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) calls for a “review of the transition” to align ambition with market realities, while the government reiterates its commitment to phase out non‑zero‑emission sales by 2035, backed by a £7.5 bn investment programme.

The Lead Bank branch closures in the UK have left customers frustrated, particularly those who rely on in-person services. The latest closures by Lloyds Bank in Surrey have sparked concerns about access to face-to-face banking. The Closure of Lloyds Branch in Staines The Lloyds branch in Staines, Surrey, closed on Monday, leaving customers with limited options for in-person banking. The closure is part of Lloyds Banking Group's plan to shut almost 150 outlets by March 2027. The Impact on Local Residents Residents like Patricia Payne, who relies on the branch for her banking needs, are feeling the impact of the closure. Payne, who struggles with online banking, has to take a four-mile bus ride from her home in Chertsey to Staines to access a bank. Payne now has only one option left for in-person banking in Staines. The closure has left her and other customers seeking alternative banking options. The Data Analysis Since 2015, nearly 7,000 bank branches have closed in the UK, representing 69% of the branches that were open at the start of 2015, according to Which?. This trend continues, with Lloyds and Santander announcing fresh rounds of closures this year. 6,795 branch closures since January 2015. 69% of branches that were open in 2015 have closed. The Impact Analysis The closure of bank branches is affecting not only customers but also small businesses. Radhe Mali, a fruit and veg stallholder in Staines, says that bank closures are a big problem for his business. Small businesses like Mali's rely on in-person banking services. The closure of bank branches can have a negative impact on local economies. The Prediction The UK government has started to pay attention to the issue, announcing an independent review to protect access to face-to-face banking services. The review aims to gather evidence on the impact of branch closures and identify areas where further action may be needed. The review will assess the real-world impact of branch closures. The goal is to protect access to banking services, particularly for vulnerable populations.

The Return to Physical Power: IATA in RioThe annual IATA AGM has returned to a physical setting in Rio de Janeiro, marking a significant shift from the virtual-only years of the pandemic. This choice of location underscores the industry's belief in a robust recovery, despite the backdrop of the US-Israel-Iran conflict in the Hormuz Strait. While geopolitical tensions threaten supply chains, airlines are defying dire warnings of a 'summer of chaos' for European holidaymakers, demonstrating a remarkable resilience in the face of potential disruption.The Economics of Flight: Fuel and FinancialsFuel Price Surge: Jet fuel prices have climbed to over $140 a barrel, a stark increase from the $80 per barrel seen at the last summit in Delhi.Cost Impact: Fuel now accounts for just over a quarter of global airlines' operating costs. Every dollar increase per barrel adds approximately $3 billion to annual fuel bills.Capacity Adjustments: To manage uncertainty, about 6% of available seats have been removed from global schedules recently.M&A; Activity: The financial strain is evident in the market; EasyJet's share price has tumbled, attracting a potential takeover bid from US private equity firm Castlelake.Leadership Shifts and Strategic ResponsesThe summit is also a stage for significant leadership transitions and strategic realignments. Willie Walsh, the IATA Director General, is departing to lead India's budget carrier Indigo, having previously criticized governments for failing to support Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandates. Meanwhile, Gulf carriers like Emirates are notably quiet, having faced operational grounding during the recent Middle East conflict. The EU Transport Commissioner has sought to allay fears, confirming no immediate jet fuel shortage in Europe and highlighting new supply sources in the US and West Africa.The Road Ahead: Volatility and ConsolidationLooking forward, the aviation industry faces a dual challenge: managing prolonged fuel price volatility and navigating a landscape of potential consolidation. With flight volumes growing faster than efficiency gains, the carbon footprint remains a persistent issue despite the focus on SAF. Analysts predict that airlines will continue to struggle with hedging strategies in a volatile market, potentially leading to further mergers and acquisitions among budget carriers struggling to maintain margins.

The Documentary's Tone Let's get one thing straight immediately: no documentary about Brexit should be this much of a hoot. The dread many felt when the referendum result came in – a fear that reactionary populism was on the rise and Britain was entering an era of managed decline – has only bloomed like mould in the intervening decade. Interviews with Key Figures The two-parter rakes over the ashes of the referendum and unearths an endless parade of sparky anecdotes in the process. Brexit-flavoured juice is served from the off, with Vote Leave bosses “didn’t really want to win”, says Nigel Farage. Boris Johnson's position had “nothing to do with the EU,” says George Osborne. “It was Game of Thrones.” The Impact of the Documentary Despite prioritising bon mots and tales of vicious infighting, there’s still time for plenty of compelling insight into Westminster machinations. Osborne, Cameron, Brown and Corbyn all attempt to justify their fatally divergent perspectives on how to influence the electorate. The Verdict Does this programme’s fixation on gossipy drama trivialise Brexit? Absolutely. Will you watch a more rollickingly fun documentary about politics this year? Absolutely not.

During the opening night of Computex 2026 in Taipei, a coordinated swarm of illuminated drones transformed the city’s skyline into a dynamic canvas, signaling a new era of experiential tech showcases. Drones Illuminate Taipei's Skyline During Computex 2026 Location: Taipei, Taiwan Event: Computex trade show, one of the world’s largest ICT exhibitions Display: Hundreds of programmable drones equipped with LED lights Timing: Night‑time performance coinciding with the exhibition’s opening ceremony Strategic Significance for Taiwan's Tech Showcase The aerial light show serves multiple strategic purposes. It positions Taiwan as a hub for advanced robotics and autonomous systems, while also offering a memorable visual narrative that differentiates Computex from competing global tech fairs. By integrating a live, programmable drone choreography, organizers demonstrate the practical capabilities of the hardware and software ecosystems that many exhibitors promote. Future Role of Aerial Displays in Global Tech Events Industry analysts expect that such immersive spectacles will become a staple of major technology gatherings. As drone technology becomes more affordable and regulatory frameworks evolve, event planners are likely to adopt aerial displays to attract media attention, enhance visitor engagement, and showcase real‑world applications of the products on exhibit.

The Surge in Nuclear Weapons Spending Global spending on nuclear weapons last year rose to an all-time high of $119bn, according to a report by nonproliferation advocates. The world's nine nuclear-armed countries spent an additional $16.8bn on their arsenals in 2025 compared with the previous year, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) said in its latest report. Breakdown of Nuclear Spending by Country The United States spent an estimated $69.2bn, a rise of $12.6bn, and more than all other nuclear powers combined, ICAN said. China was the second-biggest spender, with an estimated $13.5bn, followed by the United Kingdom with $12.6bn, Russia with $9.5bn and France with $7.7bn. United States: $69.2bn China: $13.5bn United Kingdom: $12.6bn Russia: $9.5bn France: $7.7bn India: $2.8bn Pakistan: Not specified Israel: Not specified North Korea: $656m The Implications of Rising Nuclear Spending ICAN said nuclear-armed states spent a combined $471bn over the past five years, with all of them planning to retain their arsenals for decades more. The report comes just a day after the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute warned that nuclear states were 'sidelining' and 'walking away from' nuclear disarmament commitments in favour of modernising and enhancing their arsenals. The Global Nuclear Landscape The nine nuclear-armed states are estimated to possess more than 12,000 warheads between them, with the vast majority held by the US and Russia. In 2017, the United Nations adopted the first legally-binding global treaty prohibiting nuclear weapons, but no country with nuclear weapons has signed the treaty.

The Lead NASA has unveiled the crew for its upcoming Artemis III spaceflight, a preparatory mission as the United States plans to return to the Moon. The crew includes astronauts Andre Douglas, Frank Rubio, Luca Parmitano, and Randy Bresnik. The Artemis III Crew The two-week mission will focus on collecting research and practicing in-space docking procedures in preparation for a future Moon landing. The crew represents a range of experiences and backgrounds, including: Andre Douglas, 40, a Florida-born engineer and mission specialist, who was a backup crew member for NASA's last major spaceflight, Artemis II. Frank Rubio, 50, a Salvadoran American physician and mission specialist, who holds the record for the longest single-duration spaceflight by a US astronaut, at 371 days. Randy Bresnik, 58, the commander and a former US Navy test pilot and Marine, who is the only Artemis III crew member to have participated in a space shuttle mission. Luca Parmitano, 49, the pilot and an Italian astronaut, who has a background in Italy's air force and served as commander on board the International Space Station in 2019. The Mission Details The Artemis III mission will be a public-private partnership, involving three rockets: One will carry the four-man crew into orbit around Earth in an Orion spacecraft. Another two rockets will bear aloft Moon lander models from Blue Origin and SpaceX. The Orion spacecraft will then practice rendezvous procedures with each of the two landers, in preparation for similar maneuvers during future Moon missions. The Impact Analysis The Artemis III mission is a major step towards human beings reaching the Moon once more. The mission will strengthen America's leadership, expand the economy, and help secure a lasting American lunar presence. It will also help NASA to: Reduce risk for future crewed Moon missions with lander test articles from both Blue Origin and SpaceX. Ensure the success of future missions when astronauts will put boots on the lunar surface. The Prediction The Artemis III mission is set to take off before the end of 2027. NASA officials have expressed confidence that the mission will be successful, despite recent setbacks, including the explosion of an uncrewed Blue Origin New Glenn rocket in Florida on May 28. The mission will help the US to: Beat China's space program, which aims to place a person on the Moon by 2030. Establish a permanent base on the Moon.