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Europe is projected to run out of jet fuel in about six weeks, according to the head of the International Energy Agency, raising the spectre of widespread flight cancellations.Fatih Birol told the Associated Press that without a rapid restoration of oil shipments from the Middle East, airlines could soon be forced to drop routes, warning that “some flights from city A to city B might be cancelled as a result of lack of jet fuel.”The shortage stems from the US‑Israel war on Iran, which has snarled global energy markets since the initial strikes in late February. In retaliation, Iran has effectively sealed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for Gulf oil exports.Although a two‑week ceasefire was recently brokered, negotiations to end the hostilities have stalled, leaving the supply disruption unresolved.Meanwhile, Brent crude futures are trading more than 30% above pre‑war levels, intensifying pressure on fuel prices and adding to political scrutiny in the United States.Jet‑fuel shipments that departed before the conflict have largely arrived in Europe, but the remaining reserves are rapidly being drawn down, leaving the continent vulnerable.Airports Council International Europe has warned EU energy and transport commissioners that the region could face fuel shortages within three weeks, echoing industry norms that typically maintain about six weeks of fuel on hand.Birol warned that the situation represents a “dire strait” with serious ramifications for the global economy, noting that prolonged disruption would exacerbate inflation and dampen growth worldwide.The anticipated fallout includes higher petrol, gas and electricity prices, with the impact expected to be uneven across different regions.Airlines are already scrapping marginally profitable routes, especially those without robust hedging strategies, and even carriers with hedged fuel costs may need to reconsider schedules.Despite the broader concerns, British low‑cost carrier easyJet asserted it has sufficient fuel visibility through mid‑May and does not anticipate supply‑related issues in the near term.

The UK economy demonstrated resilience with a 0.5% growth in February, surpassing the 0.1% forecast by economists. This growth was primarily fueled by a strong performance from the services sector and manufacturing, both of which posted 0.5% growth, and a recovery in construction output, which was up 1%.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the economy had been gaining momentum before the Iran war dashed hopes of recovery. The growth in the three months to February was 0.5%, up from 0.3% in the three months to January, indicating strengthening growth.Grant Fitzner, the ONS chief economist, noted that growth was driven by broad-based increases across services, with wholesaling, market research, hospitality, and publishing performing well. The recovery of Jaguar Land Rover from a cyber-attack also contributed to the improving three-monthly picture.However, economists have downgraded forecasts for UK growth in 2026 due to soaring oil and gas prices resulting from the Iran war. Business and consumer confidence have declined sharply, and investors believe interest rates may have to rise to restrain the inflationary impact of the war.Martin Beck, chief economist at WPI Strategy, warned that February's growth might be the calm before the storm, with the conflict in the Middle East likely to drag overall Q1 growth down. Suren Thiru, chief economist at the ICAEW, also predicted that March would see a decline in economic activity due to skyrocketing fuel prices and supply chain chaos.

Tesco, the UK's largest supermarket chain, has issued a warning that its profits could decline in the upcoming year due to increased uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East. This announcement comes on the heels of the company achieving its highest market share in a decade.In the year ending February 28, Tesco reported a profit increase of 8.5% to £2.4bn, with sales rising by 4.3% to £66.6bn, driven largely by strong growth in the UK. The retailer attributed its success to increased investments in keeping prices low and improving quality and service.Despite these positive results, Tesco has widened its profit guidance for the year ahead to £3bn to £3.3bn, citing the potential implications of the Middle East conflict on UK households and the broader economy. Ken Murphy, Tesco's chief executive, emphasized the company's commitment to keeping prices low and helping consumers navigate cost pressures.In a move to further enhance its pricing strategy, Tesco aims to make £500m in new savings in the year ahead, leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to optimize price markdowns and finance tools.

Average private rents across Great Britain have halted their near‑decade‑long climb, with the typical advertised rent outside London remaining at £1,370 per month during the first quarter of 2026, according to Rightmove data.That flat reading marks the first time since 2017 that rents have not risen in the opening three months of a year compared with the end of the previous year, signalling a potential easing of the chronic affordability squeeze that has plagued tenants.Rightmove warned that many renters are now hitting the “ceiling” of what they can afford, a trend compounded by broader cost‑of‑living pressures. Estate agent Jeremy Leaf noted that the Iran war that began on 28 February has heightened tenants’ financial anxieties.Conversely, the conflict has spurred a modest influx of migrants from the Middle East, bolstering demand in the “prime” rental segment, according to Chestertons.Rightmove’s property expert Colleen Babcock cautioned that the war’s immediate impact is an increase in borrowing costs for landlords, which could later translate into higher rents.In response to the softening market, landlords are “positioning rents correctly for the current market.” About 26 % of rental listings have been reduced in price while advertised – the highest proportion recorded since Rightmove began tracking this metric in 2012.After years of demand outstripping supply, the market now shows signs of balance: the number of homes available for rent is 3 % higher than a year ago, and supply is at its strongest level for this time of year since 2021.London’s average advertised rent rose modestly by 0.7 % to £2,736 per month, still below the record peak reached in the summer of 2025.The sector is also bracing for regulatory change. The Renters’ Rights Act, effective 1 May 2026, will abolish Section 21 of the Housing Act, ending “no‑fault” evictions. Charities have warned of a potential surge in last‑minute evictions ahead of the deadline, but Rightmove reported no noticeable increase in newly listed rentals before the law takes effect.Analysts view the pause in rent growth as a temporary relief for tenants, yet warn that higher financing costs for landlords and the upcoming tenancy reforms could reignite upward pressure later in the year.

Israel has appointed Michael Lotem as its first ambassador to Somaliland, marking the latest milestone after the country officially recognized the self‑declared state in December 2025. Lotem, who previously served as Israel’s ambassador to Kenya, was announced by Israel’s public broadcaster on Wednesday. Somaliland’s president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, hailed the appointment in a joint parliamentary session, declaring Israel a “reliable partner” and prompting applause from lawmakers. In stark contrast, Somalia’s foreign ministry condemned the decision, labeling it a “direct breach” of Somali sovereignty and unity. The condemnation echoed broader disapproval from the UN Security Council, the African Union, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the European Union, all of which have criticized Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. Since the December announcement, diplomatic activity has accelerated. Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar visited Hargeisa in January, and Somaliland’s water ministry sent a delegation to Israel for training in water‑management techniques. President Abdullahi told Reuters in February that a trade agreement with Israel is expected soon. Israel has also granted diplomatic approval to Mohamed Hagi, a presidential adviser instrumental in securing recognition, designating him as Somaliland’s first ambassador to Israel. Somali officials warn that the deepening ties could destabilise the region. President of Somalia earlier this year called Israel’s outreach the “gravest attack” on Somali sovereignty and suggested Israel might seek to establish a military base to launch operations against Yemen. Geographically, Somaliland sits across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen, where the Iran‑backed Houthi movement controls the northwest and remains hostile to Israel. The Houthis have publicly stated that any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be a legitimate target. In March, Somaliland’s minister of the presidency, Khadar Hussein Abdi, told Bloomberg that the country aims for a “strategic relationship” with Israel that includes security cooperation. He did not rule out the possibility of an Israeli military base, noting that such a decision “will be analysed at some point.” Somalia’s state minister for foreign affairs, Ali Omar, reiterated to Al Jazeera that Somalia does not want its territory drawn into external confrontations that could further destabilise an already sensitive region. The appointment of an Israeli ambassador therefore not only solidifies bilateral ties but also introduces new strategic calculations for regional actors, potentially reshaping security dynamics in the Horn of Africa and the broader Red Sea corridor.

A Pakistani delegation headed by Army Chief General Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on Wednesday, bearing a fresh message from Washington and urging the launch of a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran. The effort comes as the two‑week ceasefire that halted hostilities last week is set to expire on April 22, leaving a narrow window to end a war that has claimed more than 4,000 lives across the Middle East, primarily in Iran and Lebanon. The initial round of talks, held in Islamabad on April 11‑12, marked the most significant direct engagement between Washington and Tehran in decades. Mediated by Pakistan, the sessions lasted over 20 hours and featured both indirect and direct exchanges between U.S. Vice President JD Vance and senior Iranian officials led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Despite covering core issues—nuclear programme, sanctions relief, frozen assets and control of the Strait of Hormuz—the talks concluded without a memorandum, with Vance asserting that Iran “did not accept our terms” and that the U.S. requires a “fundamental commitment” to forego nuclear weapons. President Donald Trump has described the conflict as “very close to being over” and hinted that a second round could resume within days, possibly in Islamabad. However, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is currently on a four‑day tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey to rally regional backing, making a rapid return to Islamabad uncertain. U.S. officials have offered an “in‑principle” agreement to extend the ceasefire, yet a Reuters‑cited source confirmed that Washington has not formally committed to an extension. Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed optimism, stating that “there can be no negotiating with clenched fists.” Key sticking points remain: Nuclear programme: The United States and Israel demand a complete halt to uranium enrichment, accusing Iran of weaponization despite a lack of public evidence. Iran maintains its enrichment is for civilian use and cites its obligations under the 1970 Non‑Proliferation Treaty. Strait of Hormuz: One‑fifth of global oil and LNG passes through this chokepoint. Since the February strikes, shipping through the strait has dropped by 95 %. Iran permits passage for “non‑hostile” vessels and seeks the right to levy tolls, while the U.S. insists on unrestricted navigation. Lebanon/Hezbollah: Iran demands that Israel cease its offensive against Hezbollah. While Tehran claims the ceasefire covers Lebanon, both the United States and Israel reject this, and Israel continues attacks on Hezbollah positions. Complicating the diplomatic landscape, President Trump announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports, adding pressure on Tehran and potentially hindering any imminent talks. With the ceasefire deadline looming and regional actors issuing mixed signals, the prospects for a renewed U.S.–Iran dialogue hinge on whether Pakistan can secure a consensus among the parties before the window closes.

The United States is set to move **over 10,000 additional service members** into the Middle East before the end of April, according to officials speaking anonymously to The Washington Post. The reinforcement is intended to heighten pressure on Iran while the current cease‑fire, declared a week ago, remains in force until April 22. Approximately 6,000 troops will embark aboard the USS George H.W. Bush carrier and its escort vessels, which are transiting around Africa to join the existing carrier presence. An additional 4,200 personnel from the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are expected to arrive later in the month. These deployments bring the total number of U.S. forces engaged in the conflict since its start on February 28 to roughly 50,000 troops. With the arrival of the George H.W. Bush, the region will host three U.S. carriers: the newly arrived vessel, the USS Abraham Lincoln, and the USS Gerald Ford, all of which have already taken part in combat operations against Iran. Concurrently, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on social media that its naval blockade of Iranian maritime trade is "fully implemented" and that American forces have "completely halted economic trade" to and from Iran by sea. However, maritime‑tracking data released on Tuesday showed several ships departing Iranian ports and navigating the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting the blockade’s effectiveness may be limited. Amid the military buildup, diplomatic channels remain active. President Donald Trump told The New York Post that a new round of negotiations with Iran could be convened in Pakistan within two days, following a marathon session in Islamabad that ended without a breakthrough. The previous high‑stakes talks failed to secure a lasting peace agreement, and the cease‑fire is slated to expire on April 22. According to the Washington Post sources, the fresh troop influx is designed to give the U.S. administration leverage in ongoing talks while preserving the option for "additional strikes or ground operations" if negotiations falter. This dual strategy underscores Washington’s intent to maintain both diplomatic and kinetic pressure on Tehran as the regional conflict evolves.

Washington, D.C. – The U.S. Senate voted 47‑52 to reject a resolution that would have limited President Donald Trump’s power to wage war against Iran, marking the fourth defeat of the measure despite weekly attempts by lawmakers. The vote follows a two‑week ceasefire agreed upon last week, though subsequent negotiations in Islamabad failed to produce a longer‑term deal. Both sides have indicated openness to a second round of talks. President Trump’s earlier threats, including a statement on April 7 that a “whole civilisation will die tonight,” intensified congressional calls for constraints on his war‑making authority. Party lines largely dictated the outcome: Republican Rand Paul voted in favor, while Democrat John Fetterman broke with his party to oppose the resolution. Supporters argue that Trump acted beyond constitutional limits when he joined Israel in launching the February 28 offensive. The U.S. Constitution reserves the declaration of war for Congress, allowing presidents to act unilaterally only in cases of immediate self‑defence. Senator Chris Murphy, speaking before the vote, described the conflict as a “bungled, mismanaged war” that has failed to meet the administration’s objectives. He criticized the lack of transparency and oversight, noting that the war is costing “billions of dollars every week,” has claimed “over a dozen American lives,” and is destabilising economies worldwide. Republican Senator Jim Risch defended Trump’s actions, dismissing the resolution as “same old, same old” and asserting that the president has both the right and duty to act. The House of Representatives is slated to consider its own war‑powers resolution this week, with a higher likelihood of passage given growing wariness among some Republicans. Even if both chambers approved the measure, Trump could veto it, requiring a two‑thirds supermajority to override. Under the War Powers Act of 1973, Congress must either authorize the military action or approve a 30‑day extension when the conflict reaches its 60‑day mark at the end of April. Failure to do so would legally compel the president to begin withdrawing forces. U.S. blockade updates: U.S. Central Command reported that no vessels have successfully breached the blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 48 hours, with nine ships complying with orders to turn back. The U.S. Navy warned that vessels attempting to transit will be boarded for interdiction and seizure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a forthcoming set of financial measures described as the “financial equivalent” of military attacks, while noting that some sanctions had been lifted to ease soaring global energy prices. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the administration has not formally requested an extension of the ceasefire, which is set to expire next week, but expressed optimism about a second round of talks in Islamabad. Iran’s state‑run television reported that a high‑level Pakistani delegation arrived in Tehran to coordinate new negotiations. Meanwhile, Major‑General Ali Abdollahi of the IRGC warned that the ongoing naval blockade could jeopardise the fragile ceasefire, describing it as a “prelude to a violation of the ceasefire.”

Mahdieh Esfandiari, an Iranian national who was detained in France for over a year, has returned to Iran following what officials describe as a reciprocal release of French citizens held in Tehran. The University of Lyon graduate, who worked as a translator in France since 2018, was arrested in February 2025 on accusations of “promoting terrorism” after posting online comments supporting Palestine and the 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. She was sentenced to one year in prison and released on bail in October, before being transferred back to Iran in mid‑April 2026. Speaking to Iran’s state television, Esfandiari condemned the French judicial process, stating, “There is no freedom of speech in France; the court’s ruling was very unjust.” Her release coincides with the recent freedom of two French nationals, Cécile Köhler (41) and Jacques Paris (72), who had been imprisoned in Iran for more than three years on espionage charges denied by their families. Köhler and Paris were arrested in May 2022, transferred to the French embassy in Tehran after their November 2025 release, and subsequently flown to Paris via Azerbaijan. French President Emmanuel Macron’s office credited a “long‑term effort” for their liberation, noting that recent diplomatic pressure linked to the US‑Israel conflict with Iran accelerated negotiations. While French authorities have not formally confirmed a swap, Iran’s state‑run IRNA agency reported that Tehran reached an agreement with Paris to exchange the French detainees for Esfandiari. The episode underscores the delicate balance of Iran‑France diplomatic ties and highlights how geopolitical tensions can influence individual human‑rights cases. Analysts suggest the exchange may set a precedent for future negotiations involving political prisoners, illustrating both the leverage of diplomatic channels and the ongoing challenges faced by activists and foreign nationals caught in broader geopolitical disputes.