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Economy
Apr 16, 2026

Europe Faces Six‑Week Jet Fuel Shortage as Iran Conflict Disrupts Supply Chains

AI Summary
The International Energy Agency warns that Europe has roughly six weeks of jet fuel remaining, with imminent flight cancellations likely if Middle‑East oil flows are not restored. The ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed Brent crude over 30% above pre‑war levels and threatens broader economic stability.

Europe is projected to run out of jet fuel in about six weeks, according to the head of the International Energy Agency, raising the spectre of widespread flight cancellations.

Fatih Birol told the Associated Press that without a rapid restoration of oil shipments from the Middle East, airlines could soon be forced to drop routes, warning that “some flights from city A to city B might be cancelled as a result of lack of jet fuel.”

The shortage stems from the US‑Israel war on Iran, which has snarled global energy markets since the initial strikes in late February. In retaliation, Iran has effectively sealed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for Gulf oil exports.

Although a two‑week ceasefire was recently brokered, negotiations to end the hostilities have stalled, leaving the supply disruption unresolved.

Meanwhile, Brent crude futures are trading more than 30% above pre‑war levels, intensifying pressure on fuel prices and adding to political scrutiny in the United States.

Jet‑fuel shipments that departed before the conflict have largely arrived in Europe, but the remaining reserves are rapidly being drawn down, leaving the continent vulnerable.

Airports Council International Europe has warned EU energy and transport commissioners that the region could face fuel shortages within three weeks, echoing industry norms that typically maintain about six weeks of fuel on hand.

Birol warned that the situation represents a “dire strait” with serious ramifications for the global economy, noting that prolonged disruption would exacerbate inflation and dampen growth worldwide.

The anticipated fallout includes higher petrol, gas and electricity prices, with the impact expected to be uneven across different regions.

Airlines are already scrapping marginally profitable routes, especially those without robust hedging strategies, and even carriers with hedged fuel costs may need to reconsider schedules.

Despite the broader concerns, British low‑cost carrier easyJet asserted it has sufficient fuel visibility through mid‑May and does not anticipate supply‑related issues in the near term.