Breaking AI & Tech News Analyzed

The Lead: Demands for Transparency on £5m Gift The defence secretary, John Healey, has urged Nigel Farage to provide transparency about the £5m gift he received from a billionaire businessman, in particular over whether any of the sum could have been linked to Russia-connected profits. In a letter to the Reform UK leader, Healey also asked him to address the possibility that the war against Iran might boost the revenues of AML Global, an aviation fuel company owned by Christopher Harborne, who gave Farage the £5m in 2024. Farage initially supported the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. The Financial Inquiry: Scrutinizing the Gift's Origins The letter, seen by the Guardian, asked Farage to confirm that none of the sum was "derived from transactions with Russian state-linked energy companies", and to give assurances that AML Global had complied fully with all sanctions on Russian energy since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In a statement to the Guardian, AML Global said it had complied fully with all UK and international sanctions, and screened any business partners to ensure the same. The Political Fallout: Investigation and Disclosure The Guardian revealed last month that shortly before the 2024 general election, Farage was given £5m by Harborne, a British-Thai dual citizen based in Thailand. Farage did not disclose the money at the time, and it only emerged when the Guardian reported it. He has argued that because it was an unconditional gift, and received before he announced he would run for parliament, there was no need to declare it once he did become an MP. However, after a complaint from the Conservatives, Farage faces a formal investigation by the parliamentary standards watchdog, Daniel Greenberg, into whether he should have done. The Geopolitical Concerns: Russia and Iran Connections In the letter, Healey noted that AML Global supplies jet fuel through a network of "main and regional oil companies" covering more than 1,200 locations worldwide, including central Asia, the Gulf and eastern Europe. Healey asked Farage to confirm that none of the profits which helped finance the £5m gift came from transactions with Russian state-linked energy companies, that AML Global had fully complied with all Russia sanctions, and that "no fuel sourced from Russian-controlled refineries has passed through its supply chain". The Public Interest: Demands for Open Books Citing previous comments by Farage about Russia – for example, that Nato "provoked" Russia's invasion of Ukraine by expanding eastwards – Healey said this wider situation "places Reform UK under a Russian cloud that only transparency can lift". On Iran, the letter asked Farage to say whether he was aware of a potential benefit to Harborne's company from rising aviation fuel prices when he made supportive comments about the attack on Iran, which led to Iran blockading the strait of Hormuz. Healey added: "The public is entitled to ask whether your financial interests were impacting on your political positioning and your initial support for throwing the UK armed forces headlong into a war in the Middle East without a plan."

Heatwave Fuels Surge in Holiday Road TravelTemperatures are forecast to exceed 30 °C in parts of the UK this Monday, turning the late‑May bank holiday into a high‑traffic event. Motoring groups warn that the combination of heat and the start of the half‑term break will make coastal roads and border crossings exceptionally busy.Key Traffic Figures for the Long WeekendThe RAC expects almost 19 million drivers on Britain’s roads, 1 million more than the same period in 2025.Nearly four in ten drivers plan a leisure trip, with the peak traffic on Friday and Saturday.About 5 % of drivers say high fuel prices will keep them at home; the average petrol price is 158.52p, the highest since December 2022.Coastal destinations on England’s east and north‑west coasts, as well as routes to the south‑east and Cornwall (A303, M5, A38), are flagged for severe congestion.Transport analytics firm Inrix predicts the worst bottlenecks on the M1, M25, M5, and M6.Border Checks and Rail Disruptions Compound DelaysAt the Port of Dover, the EU’s entry‑exit system (EES) remains partially manual, leading to hour‑long queues for the estimated 18 000 travellers between Friday and Sunday. Ferry departures peak on Saturday morning.Rail services will also face interruptions: £64 million of engineering work continues, with replacement buses on the east‑coast mainline (London‑Edinburgh) and the Great Western mainline (Newport‑Bristol Parkway). Strikes by the TSSA union will reduce timetables on routes linking the Midlands, Birmingham, Liverpool, and London.Broader Implications for UK Travel and EconomyThe surge in road traffic and associated delays could strain fuel supplies, exacerbate congestion‑related emissions, and pressure border infrastructure. Despite these challenges, demand for domestic and short‑haul leisure travel remains robust, with the AA noting a higher proportion of day trips to the coast than overnight stays, and the travel association ABTA reporting strong bookings for Mediterranean holidays.What to Expect Over the Bank Holiday WeekendTravelers should anticipate the heaviest road congestion on Friday and Saturday, especially on the highlighted motorways and coastal routes. Ferry passengers at Dover are advised to arrive early to avoid prolonged border checks. Rail users should check for service alterations and consider alternative routes or modes of transport, given ongoing engineering works and strike‑related reductions.

The Economic Crisis in War-Torn LebanonBeirut, Lebanon – Mario Habib, a 51-year-old barber who opened his shop in 2006 just before war broke out between Israel and Hezbollah, is now living through another conflict. Twenty years later, his business in Furn el-Shebbak neighborhood is struggling as Lebanon's economy deteriorates under the weight of renewed war and global fuel crisis. "The price of running the generator is killing me," Habib said. "Everything has gotten more expensive, the price of petrol doubled, the supermarket is more expensive, even the products [I use for my business] got more expensive."Regional Conflict Disrupts Fuel Supplies and Economic GrowthIsrael's war on Lebanon and the broader US-Israel war on Iran are severely damaging Lebanon's fragile economy. Supply issues have particularly affected oil from the Gulf region, which has largely stopped flowing since the US and Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz. In Lebanon, which was already suffering from a severe economic crisis, there is less work and people are losing their jobs at an alarming rate.Despite Lebanon's government expressing optimism about the country's economy in 2025, with the World Bank recording a modest 3.5 percent GDP growth that year, the renewed conflict has erased those gains. In March 2026, inflation reached an 18-month high in Lebanon. Lebanon's Bank Audi now predicts that there will be 0 percent GDP growth in 2026 if the war continues.Economic Indicators Show Deteriorating ConditionsInflation reached an 18-month high in March 2026Bank Audi projects 0% GDP growth for 2026 if war continuesLebanon had recorded 3.5% GDP growth in 2025Reconstruction and recovery costs estimated at $11bn by World BankWar-related losses in 2026 estimated at $3bn (with more expected)Oil prices have increased approximately 65% since MarchCompounding Crises Create Perfect Economic StormLebanon's current economic crisis is not solely the result of recent conflicts. The country has been facing multiple compounding crises for years:2019: Financial mismanagement led to a banking crisis, cutting people off from their savings2020: Beirut port explosion killed 218 people and devastated infrastructure2021-2022: Worsening state services and mass emigration2023-2024: Hezbollah-Israel war displaced thousands of Lebanese2024: Israel intensified attacks, displacing more than one million people2026: Renewed Israeli attacks have displaced over 1.2 million people"This is a war that comes after a war," said Sami Zoughaib, an economist and research manager at The Policy Institute, a Beirut-based think tank. "It comes after institutional collapse. It comes after one of the worst financial crises in history."Societal Impact and Economic VulnerabilityThe economic crisis is disproportionately affecting Lebanon's most vulnerable populations. According to the World Bank, agriculture, commerce, and tourism—sectors accounting for 77 percent of economic losses—are key income sources for low-wage and informal workers now at significant risk.Remittances, which were approximately $6.6bn in 2023, are expected to drop significantly in 2026 due to rising oil prices. The 65% increase in oil prices since March particularly affects remittances from Gulf countries, which are crucial to Lebanon's economy.The displacement crisis has mostly impacted Lebanon's Shia community, from which Hezbollah draws its support. However, economists warn that the economic fallout could exacerbate societal divisions, with political elites potentially scapegoating displaced people for the country's economic problems—a pattern seen in the past with Syrians and Palestinians.Future Outlook: Economic Collapse or Recovery?Should the current pattern of conflict continue, Lebanon's economy could soon become unviable, with many investors deciding that opening or operating businesses is not worth the potential returns. The impact has been felt across the country, with no community left untouched by the economic consequences of war.While some areas have been hit harder than others, economist Sami Zoughaib warns that Lebanon may be reaching a point of no return. "That is, for me, very dangerous," Zoughaib said, referring to the potential for political elites to exploit economic divisions for their own gain.For ordinary Lebanese citizens like Mario Habib, the immediate concern is survival. Despite rising costs and reduced business, Habib refuses to raise his prices. "I always prefer that the person who comes here is comfortable," he said. "A lot of things are more expensive, but I prefer to be conservative on this. I feel like if you come to me, you want to be happy and relaxed."

The Fuel-Driven Retail ContractionMotorists cutting back on petrol and fuel purchases at the steepest rate since the Covid pandemic in 2020 drove retail sales in Great Britain to their biggest monthly decline in a year. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the overall volume of retail sales plunged by 1.3% in April compared with the previous month, marking the biggest contraction since May last year and exceeding economists' expectations of a -0.6% decline.The Fuel Purchase FreefallFuel purchases plunged more than 10% month on month, representing the biggest slide since November 2020, when monthly sales fell 14.8% as pandemic protocols put households into a second national lockdown. After strong growth in March, motorists appear to be conserving fuel, with the ONS noting that "these subdued fuel purchases contributed to a sizeable monthly fall for total retail sales in April."Financial Impact AnalysisThe ONS slightly revised down its initial estimate of retail sales growth in March from 0.7% to 0.6%. That previous rise had been driven by a 6.1% increase in fuel sales volumes – and a 12% rise in the value of fuel sales, the biggest monthly increase since November 2021 – as the Iran war prompted "panic at the pumps" and a rush to stock up amid the biggest jump in fuel prices for more than three years.When excluding the impact of the dramatic fall in fuel purchases, total retail sales still fell by 0.4% month on month, indicating broader consumer caution beyond just fuel purchasing decisions.Shifting Consumer Behavior in RetailDespite the overall decline, there were "strong and sustained" sales at beauty product and computer and tech shops in April. However, retail stores faced a 0.4% decrease versus March, with clothing stores taking the brunt as sales declined 2.4% – the lowest level since June last year. This decline occurred amid variable weather conditions and lower demand as shoppers worried about rising prices.Consumer sentiment has fallen at its fastest rate for four years, according to Jacqueline Windsor, head of retail at PwC UK, who noted that "April 2026 will be remembered as the first month that the impact of the Middle East conflict first hit British consumers."Future Outlook for UK RetailThe question now is whether the downward momentum in retail sales will continue, or if May's better weather and potentially lower inflation can encourage consumers back into stores as spring turns to summer. Over the first quarter, total retail sales rose by 1.1% year on year and 0.5% compared with the final three months of last year, suggesting some underlying resilience despite the April downturn.The retail sector faces significant headwinds from geopolitical tensions affecting fuel prices and broader economic uncertainty, which may continue to influence consumer spending patterns in the coming months.

The LeadA friend of mine was recently left in tears after filling up the car she relies on to drive to work. Thanks to the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, prices at the pumps have soared. She wasn't sure how her family was going to make it to the next paycheck.It is a personal story and a distressing one, but the big picture is truly obscene. Fossil fuel companies are raking in monstrous, unearned war profits taken from the pockets of people like you, me, my friend, and any of us who fills up a vehicle or pays an energy bill.The War-Profits Bonanza$30m an hour: that's the pure, unearned profits banked by the world's top 100 oil and gas companies in the first month of the conflict in Iran, purely due to the spike in the oil price. Now the first numbers are in, and that $30m may have been a major underestimate.Shell's profit for the first three months of 2026 more than doubled to $6.9bn, as did BP's, to $3.2bn. TotalEnergies profits also surged by more than 50%, up to $5.8bn. Even in the Gulf itself, where the flow of oil through the strait of Hormuz has been heavily restricted, some companies have still flourished. Aramco, the state oil company of Saudi Arabia, saw its profits soar by 26% to $33.6bn in the first quarter.The Financial Impact on ConsumersThose four companies alone, benefiting not just from the oil price hike but also bumper oil-trading profits, made $23m an hour for the whole of January, February and March. And the Iran conflict only started on 28 February.To get some idea of the scale of this, imagine I gave you $6,200. What would you do? Pay off a loan? Book a fancy holiday? A second later, I give you another $6,200; then again, for hours, weeks and months. That is the rate of profit of just those four companies.There is plenty more to come for the industry. Oil and gas supplies will take months to return to prewar levels, and reserves are getting dangerously low. Even if the oil price remains at today's level of about $100 a barrel, those 100 companies will make $234bn by the end of the year. Remember, the companies, and petrostates such as Russia, have done no extra work for this, just ridden a soaring oil price. Also remember, you are paying for this. Where I live in the UK, household energy bills are about to jump by £209 ($280) a year for the average home.The Industry's Climate ObstructionThe profits are extreme, but not new: big oil and gas has been wildly profitable for decades. It has made an average $1tn a year in pure profit for about 50 years. The fossil fuel sector also benefits from explicit subsidies that totalled $1.3tn in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund.These riches have funded the lobbying and campaigns that block climate action and have done so for years, long after the science became crystal clear. As an example of the consequences, the UK's official climate advisers said on Tuesday that all care homes and hospitals will need air conditioning within the coming 10 years, to stop the heat killing people.The Green Transition AccelerationBut here's that silver lining I promised: these peak profits contain the seeds of their own downfall. Sky-high fossil fuel prices are pushing people, companies and nations to supercharge their rush towards green power for the simple reason that it is now cheaper and more reliable. Solar power does not need to transit through the strait of Hormuz, as Bill McKibben has observed.The numbers on the surge in renewable energy deployment, already exponential, are not yet in, but they will almost certainly be huge. Green funds are already attracting billions of dollars in new investments and one consultancy estimates that an oil price of $100 a barrel will drive $4tn of extra green investment by 2030.Big oil remains a formidable political force but, on the ground, people are already voting with their feet. Sales of new electric cars in the UK leapt by 59% in April, for example. The pain and anger of today's energy crisis may yet become a critical turning point in confronting the climate crisis.

The $50 Access InitiativeMayor Zohran Mamdani has launched a direct intervention to lower the barrier to entry for the 2026 World Cup, specifically targeting New York City residents. The initiative allocates 1,000 tickets priced at $50 for seven of the eight games scheduled at the MetLife Stadium. This price point is a drastic reduction from the market rates, which can reach nearly $33,000 for the July 19 final.Lottery System: Tickets will be distributed via a lottery starting May 25.Logistics: Winners will receive free round-trip bus transportation to the stadium.Exclusions: The high-demand final is the only match excluded from this subsidized allocation.Price Disparity in the 2026 CupThe announcement highlights a significant economic gap within the upcoming tournament. While the final ticket prices have sparked outrage, the Mayor's office notes that the $50 allocation does not come directly from FIFA but from the New York and New Jersey joint host committee. This contrasts with FIFA's previous model, which set aside $60 tickets for national federations to distribute to loyal fans, rather than the general public.With a city population exceeding 8 million, the 1,000 available tickets represent a fraction of the potential fanbase, yet Mamdani emphasizes the symbolic value of making the event accessible to the working class.Political Strategy and Fan EngagementThis initiative is framed as a core component of Mamdani's administration's focus on affordability. The Mayor stated, “We are making sure that working people will not be priced out of the game that they helped to create,” alongside US star Timothy Weah.The distribution method is designed to prevent resale and ensure local access. Tickets are non-transferable and will be handed out directly to fans as they board buses on game day, with officials employing “a variety of ways” to verify residency.Future of Ticket AllocationMamdani’s move signals a potential shift in how host cities might handle ticket distribution in future global events. By successfully lobbying for a percentage of tickets to be discounted during his campaign, the Mayor has set a precedent that could pressure other host cities to follow suit. If the lottery system proves successful in engaging the local demographic, it may force FIFA to reconsider its demand-based pricing models for future tournaments.

The Lead: One Nation's Standalone Climate Denial As the populist right-wing One Nation party gains momentum in Australian polls, it maintains a firm stance against decades of climate science evidence showing the planet and Australia are warming. The party claims to be the only political force in Australia questioning climate science, but experts say this position is not only scientifically baseless but increasingly out of step with global trends in climate misinformation. The Event Details: One Nation's Climate Contradictions One Nation's position on climate change is rooted in denial and conspiracy theories, despite overwhelming scientific evidence. The party's energy and climate policies have previously been literal cut-and-pastes from the now-defunct climate denial group the Galileo Movement. Currently, One Nation rejects the scientific consensus that the planet and Australia are warming, claiming extreme weather was more prevalent before 1960—a position climate scientists have compared to believing the Earth is flat. The party also wants Australia to leave the Paris Agreement and would push to close down the federal climate change department "and all related agencies, regulations and programs." They proudly declare: "We are the only political party to question climate science." The Data Analysis: Australia's Unequivocal Warming Trend Despite One Nation's claims, Australia has experienced significant warming since 1910. The Bureau of Meteorology's official long-term climate dataset shows Australia has warmed by 1.5°C since 1910. Temperature readings before this period are not included in the official dataset because they were often taken with non-standardized equipment, making them less reliable. Research into pre-1910 temperature records shows temperatures from 1860 to 1909 were similar to those from 1910 to 1959. Since 1960, both maximum and minimum temperatures have risen significantly. The independent Berkeley Earth group's analysis of historical temperature data confirms Australia has warmed substantially since the 1880s. One Nation points to a single weather station in Newcastle (Nobby's) to claim no pattern of warming exists—a classic example of cherry-picking data while ignoring the broader evidence showing temperatures are warming across Australia. The Impact Analysis: Political Consequences of Climate Denial One Nation's climate denial positions have significant political implications in Australia. Research from CSIRO a decade ago suggested that views on climate change can be influenced by how a person votes, rather than the other way around. This means votes for One Nation could lead more people to reject established climate science. Dr. John Cook, an expert on climate science denial, notes that One Nation is "not only out of touch with the scientific evidence, they're even out of touch with the rest of the climate denial community." Over the past decade, climate misinformation has transitioned from science denial to attacking climate solutions, as the scientific evidence for human-caused global warming has become undeniable. Prof. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist at Australian National University, emphasizes: "There's a wealth of evidence that extreme heat events are increasing worldwide since the 1950s. We see increased intensity of droughts and heatwaves and the intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing." The Prediction: Future of Climate Politics in Australia As climate impacts worsen in Australia—with more frequent and intense heatwaves, bushfires, and extreme weather events—One Nation's climate denial stance may become increasingly untenable politically. The party's net zero conspiracies, including claims that climate action is part of a plot to create a "socialist Australia," are based on misinformation and misrepresentations of statements by figures like former World Economic Forum chair Klaus Schwab. One Nation's assertions that renewable energy is causing electricity price increases are also contradicted by experts. Research from CSIRO suggests that if 82% of Australia's electricity came from renewables backed by storage, the cost of generation would be a third less than current prices. The real drivers of rising electricity costs are aging infrastructure and rising international gas prices, not the transition to renewables. As Australia faces increasing climate impacts, political parties that reject established climate science may find themselves increasingly isolated, both scientifically and politically. The future of Australian climate politics may depend on how mainstream parties respond to One Nation's misinformation and whether they can effectively communicate the scientific consensus on climate change.

The Impact of AI on Chip Supply Chains BT has warned that the cost of smartphones could rise as technology companies buy up semiconductor chips due to the boom in artificial intelligence, putting pressure on supply chains. Chip Shortages and Price Increases The telecoms company’s chief executive, Allison Kirkby, said she was anticipating shortages as tech firms bought large quantities of memory chips to power the datacentres relied on by AI. Kirkby added that price increases would mainly hit smartphone handsets, but could also affect the cost of routers. The Data Analysis Memory chips are essential for almost every modern item of electronics and are also used in other important components such as graphics cards. The largest manufacturers of laptops and phones, including Microsoft, Samsung and Dell, have already begun to put up prices in response to the chip shortages and have pulled cheaper models from the market. Sony has also hiked the price of its PlayStation 5 consoles, including a $100 (£75) increase in the US, while Nintendo has confirmed a price rise for its Switch 2. The Impact Analysis A global investment spree in AI has led to a huge expansion of server farms, enormous banks of computers filled with high-end memory chips. These requirements are not only consuming the world’s current supply of chips, but also production capacity for the coming years, creating shortages and driving up the cost of electronics. The Prediction Kirkby said she had not yet seen price increases from premium handset manufacturers, but expected companies such as Apple to pass higher costs on to customers. BT plans to cut costs by a further £700m over the next four years and reported flat full-year earnings and falling revenues.

The LeadEleven weeks after the start of the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed to naval traffic, bleeding the global economy far beyond the Gulf. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains an iron grip over this narrow, strategic waterway, while a corresponding United States naval blockade on Iranian ports has failed to reopen it.Before the war began, between 120 and 140 ships travelled through the strait each day, about half of them oil tankers carrying some 20 million barrels of oil between them. Now, only a few vessels whose owners have negotiated with the IRGC are permitted to pass.The Strategic Control of HormuzOn Wednesday, Iran said it coordinated the transit of 26 vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours, two days after announcing the formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), a new body to provide "real-time updates" on operations in the strait.Since the announcement of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran in April, Iran has been working on formalising a mechanism to charge a transit fee from ships crossing the critical chokepoint, through which 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are shipped during peacetime.Tehran has reportedly already charged fees as high as $2m per ship for transit since the war started. Even though countries opposing Tehran say this is illegal, it may still be less expensive than the overall cost of the closure of the strait each day.The Economic Cost of BlockadeNearly one-fifth of global oil and LNG exports were shipped by Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz before the US and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, triggering the Iranian closure of the waterway. The strait is the only waterway linking Gulf producers to the open ocean – there is no other route through which they can ship exports.About 20.3 million barrels per day of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime – nearly 27 percent of global maritime oil trade. The lion's share of that crude went to Asian markets.Global LNG trade has been similarly hard hit. On the day before the war broke out, Brent crude – the global benchmark for oil prices – closed at $72.48 per barrel. After Iran closed the waterway on March 4 and began attacks on vessels attempting to sail through, traffic came to a standstill, stranding about 2,000 ships on either side of the strait.In terms of lost oil revenues, this amounts to $114.8bn of losses per day. About 10 billion cubic feet of LNG per day also used to pass through the strait, worth a further $7.8bn.The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Transit FeesFor hundreds of ships stranded in the Gulf with thousands of sailors on board, the cost of remaining anchored is steep, including crew wages, loan repayments, repair and management, coupled with inflated war risk premiums.In turn, Iran has reportedly been charging up to $2m for authorisation to pass. Experts say many will see this as worthwhile purely in terms of monetary cost."There is no doubt that paying Iran is cheaper than a continuous blockade because a sitting tanker bleeds money," said Nader Habibi, an Iranian American economist."It makes sense from an economic point of view, but it is not politically feasible," he added. "The companies are under pressure from the US sanctions and not to make arrangements with Iran. This is not just a purely economic cost-benefit analysis, but long-term considerations that are taken into account."International Legal PerspectivesInternational law protects free transit through strategic waters such as natural straits like Hormuz, barring countries from imposing passage tolls even where the waterways fall entirely into territorial waters, like in the case of Hormuz.However, services such as security controls, inspections and insurance regimes can be charged for. Chargeable fees also partly depend on whether a waterway is a man-made passageway or a natural one.These are three different precedents in maritime traffic flow:Panama Canal: An artificial waterway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Vessels pass through a unique system of locks that raise and lower vessels across elevated terrain. Since Panama built, maintains and operates the canal, it can charge transit fees based on vessel size, cargo capacity and booking priority. These range from several hundred thousand dollars per transit to some slots sold for millions of dollars.Suez Canal: Another artificial canal, linking the Mediterranean and Red seas. Egypt charges transit fees for the use of canal infrastructure, maintenance and traffic management services through the narrow waterway. Container ships and oil tankers pay from several hundred thousand dollars to more than one million dollars per voyage.Turkiye's Bosporus Strait and Dardanelles: These are different because they are natural straits, rather than man-made canals. Turkiye charges for navigation-related services such as lighthouse operations, rescue readiness, medical support and traffic management – and tightly controls ship scheduling and navigation.Regional Cooperation PossibilitiesIran's newly-formed PGSA published a new map of Hormuz, stretching from Kuh-e Mubarak in Iran to south of Fujairah, in the UAE, at the eastern entrance of the strait, and from the tip of Qeshm Island to Umm al-Quwain at the western entrance.Given how the Iran war has spilled over into the Gulf region – with the UAE taking the brunt of Iranian strikes – economist Mohammad Reza Farzanegan said "regional cooperation with Iran is the most realistic path to stable transit through the Strait of Hormuz."The UAE, Oman, Qatar and Iran will have to work together because their economies require it, he argued. A workable arrangement could include a joint maritime authority, shared monitoring, emergency coordination, environmental protection and service-based contributions for maintaining safe passage."This would give Iran a recognised role in the security of the waterway while giving Persian Gulf economies more predictability," Farzanegan added. "Such a framework is also more realistic than relying on external military enforcement, which has been more a source of trouble for these states."The Future OutlookWhile it may seem that the economics of the closure of the strait are currently skewed towards Iran, Aniseh Tabrizi, an associate fellow on the Middle East and North Africa Programme at think tank Chatham House, noted that "the economics by itself is not going to be the driver to change calculation or move from the current standpoint."She emphasized that Iran and the US need to reach a "diplomatic compromise, with other calculations linked in to the economic factor", before there can be an end to the energy supply crisis.Farzanegan added that if the world expects stable access to the Strait of Hormuz, then paying Iran could well be accepted as the price of keeping the vital waterway predictable. "From an economic perspective, a negotiated transit arrangement [with Iran] now makes more sense than continued closure," he concluded.