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US President Donald Trump has intensified his rhetoric against Iran, suggesting that the United States aims to seize the country's oil industry. In a recent social media post, Trump stated that with more time, the US can 'easily open the Hormuz Strait, take the oil, and make a fortune.' This assertion marks a significant escalation in his statements regarding Iran. The strategic Hormuz Strait, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has been effectively blocked by Iran early in the conflict, leading to a surge in energy prices. Trump's comments come as the US and Israel continue their military campaign against Iran, with the war now entering its sixth week. Under international law, specifically the doctrine of Permanent Sovereignty over Natural Resources adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1962, oil and minerals are considered to belong to the countries where they are located. Trump's repeated calls for 'taking the oil' in countries involved in US military actions, including Iraq and Venezuela, have been controversial. Despite the assassinations of top Iranian officials and daily bombardments by the US and Israel, the Iranian government remains in control of the country's natural resources. The US has no publicly known military presence on the ground in Iran, and Trump did not provide details on how his administration plans to control Iran's oil. Trump's suggestion that replicating the Venezuelan model in Iran is possible but would require prolonging the war has sparked concerns. He expressed a preference for taking Iran's oil but noted that the US public may not have the patience for a prolonged conflict. Legal experts have criticized Trump's threats to bomb civilian infrastructure, including power stations and water desalination plants, as potential war crimes under international law. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson has likened the US attacks to ISIS tactics, highlighting the devastating impact on civilian populations.

Ukraine has made significant gains on the battlefield, halving the Russian rate of advance in the past three months and reclaiming 470sq km of occupied territory this year. The country's military has also dealt a major blow to Russia's oil export capacity, striking key terminals and refineries, including Ust-Luga and Primorsk, which account for about 60% of Russia's oil export capacity.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has secured agreements with several Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, to export Ukrainian drone know-how in return for joint drone production support. This has enabled Ukraine to increase its drone production and effectively counter Russian advances.The Ukrainian military has also targeted Russian munitions production, striking the Promsintez explosives plant in the Samara region, which produces 30,000 tonnes of military explosives annually. According to estimates, Russia has lost 45% of its missile production capacity due to Ukrainian strikes.In response to Ukrainian attacks, Russia has begun to extend its drone strikes throughout the day, imitating Iran's tactics against the US and Israel. However, Ukraine has successfully shot down over 90% of the drones launched by Russia.

Iranian military units have launched a coordinated search for the two pilots of a United States F‑15 fighter jet that was struck by an Iranian air‑defence system over the country's southwest region. The operation, reported by the state‑run Fars news agency, is the first documented crew‑recovery effort since the US‑Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February. State media released images showing the aircraft's wreckage, including an ejection seat attached to a parachute, underscoring the seriousness of the incident. Reuters cited two U.S. officials confirming that a fighter jet was downed and that a search‑and‑rescue mission is underway for any survivors. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad‑Bagher Ghalibaf used the event to mock President Donald Trump’s repeated claims of victory, posting on social media that the conflict had been reduced from "regime change" to a plea for the location of the pilots. According to Iranian reports, the downed aircraft was an F‑15 likely crewed by two pilots. The Pentagon and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) have not issued an immediate comment, a pattern consistent with past Iranian claims that CENTCOM swiftly denied. Local Iranian television broadcast footage of the jet's debris, and officials appealed to civilians to remain vigilant for any survivors. The governor of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad province announced that anyone who captures the crew would receive special commendation, as relayed by the semi‑official ISNA news agency. U.S. lawmakers responded with statements of support. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer posted on X, "I’m praying for the safe return of the crew aboard the fighter jet and all of those working to rescue them in these dangerous conditions." Since the war's onset, the United States has reported the loss of three F‑15s in a friendly‑fire incident over Kuwait and a refuelling aircraft that crashed in Iraq, killing six crew members. Iran, meanwhile, claims to have downed dozens of U.S. drones and continues to assert that its new air‑defence system, introduced after the 12‑day war, remains operational. While President Trump and his advisers repeatedly assert that the United States has neutralised Iran’s air‑defences, the downing of the jet and the ensuing search highlight the ongoing volatility of the conflict.

At the start of 2026 Pakistan was sitting on a surplus of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). Three consecutive years of falling demand – from a peak of 8.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 6.1 million tonnes by late 2025 – were driven by cheap solar panels and reduced industrial activity. The government responded by quietly selling excess cargoes abroad and shutting down domestic wells to avoid over‑pressurising pipelines. Any gas that could not be diverted would have been pushed into household networks at a loss, adding billions to the sector’s crippling debt. Everything changed on 28 February when the United States and Israel launched the "Epic Fury" operation against Iran. The strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted missile sites, air defences and military infrastructure. Iran retaliated with hundreds of missiles and drones, choking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for roughly 20 % of global oil and gas. As part of its retaliation, Iranian drones hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City on 2 March, the world’s largest LNG export hub. Qatar, the second‑largest LNG exporter after the United States, declared force majeure and halted all production, releasing it from contractual delivery obligations. The fallout was immediate. Qatar’s forced shutdown cut its LNG output by 17 % and disrupted the supply chain that fuels Pakistan, which sources almost all of its imported gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Pakistan’s LNG arrivals plummeted from 12 shipments in January to just two in March. Monthly cargo data from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) show that the country received between eight and twelve shipments a month through 2025, but only two arrived after the conflict began. Price pressure followed. On 13 February state‑owned Pakistan State Oil and Pakistan LNG Limited bought eight cargoes at an average of $10.47 per MMBtu (totaling $257.1 million). By 12 March the two cargoes that did arrive cost $12.49 per MMBtu – a 19 % increase in just one month. Long‑term contracts have left Pakistan with little flexibility. Two government‑to‑government agreements with Qatar, spanning 15 and 10 years, commit the country to nine shipments a month. Even as domestic demand fell – LNG’s share of Asian markets dropped from ~30 % in 2020 to ~18 % in 2025 – the contracts remained binding. Solarisation has been a double‑edged sword. By 2025 Pakistan installed 34 GW of solar capacity, with about 25 GW feeding the national grid, driving an 11 % decline in overall electricity demand between 2022 and 2025. Gas‑fired power plants built for imported LNG are now under‑utilised, especially during daylight hours. Analysts warn that the surplus was predictable. “Pakistan’s energy planning has been locked into long‑term contracts with little room for adjustment,” says Haneea Isaad of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). The resulting circular debt now stands at 3.3 trillion rupees (≈ $11 billion), and the government is negotiating to off‑load 177 unwanted shipments worth $5.6 billion through 2031. With Qatar’s LNG shipments effectively halted, the country faces a potential shortfall of more than 21 % of its power generation capacity. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority confirmed that LNG supplies are under force majeure, while coal imports from South Africa and Indonesia continue. To mitigate the gap, Pakistan is reviving domestic gas production that had been throttled during the surplus period. Roughly 350–400 million cubic feet per day of domestic gas were previously held back for LNG imports, now being released to the grid. Nevertheless, analysts caution that even with restored domestic gas, imported coal and hydropower, “the energy shortage may persist, especially during the peak summer months.” Summer pressure is already building. The State of Industry Report 2025 recorded peak electricity demand of over 33,000 MW last summer, while winter demand sits around 15,000 MW, helped by solar generation of 9,000–10,000 MW daily. Furnace oil, the primary backup fuel, now costs 35 rupees per unit (≈ $0.12), more than double since the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Consumers with grid electricity face higher bills and possible outages; industrial users reliant on gas risk production cuts; those equipped with rooftop solar and battery storage are best insulated. “Returning to the spot market is unlikely given Pakistan’s dire financial position, and competing with wealthier nations would price the country out,” Isaad warns. “The realistic outcome may be planned load‑shedding of two to three hours daily.”

Former Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif urged Tehran to declare victory and pursue a diplomatic settlement after a rapid escalation of hostilities between Washington and Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. military has not even started dismantling what remains of Iran’s infrastructure, a statement made in the wake of a strike that demolished the country’s largest bridge. In retaliation, Iran’s armed forces cautioned that they would destroy U.S. regional assets if the United States and Israel intensify their attacks, signaling a willingness to broaden the conflict. Tehran’s latest wave of strikes hit a desalination plant in Kuwait and the Habshan gas facility in the United Arab Emirates, extending the battlefield across the Gulf region. Analysts interpret Zarif’s call for a victory proclamation as a strategic pivot toward seeking a negotiated deal, even as military rhetoric on both sides remains fierce.

Myanmar's coup leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has been elected as the country's president by a pro-military parliament, securing 429 out of 584 votes. This move formalizes his control over the war-torn nation, marking a significant shift in the country's political landscape.The 69-year-old general, who orchestrated a 2021 coup against the administration of Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, has long sought the presidency. His ascent follows a lopsided election in December and January won by an army-backed party, which critics and Western governments have deemed a sham.The pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party secured more than 80 percent of parliamentary seats in the election. With serving members of the armed forces occupying unelected seats, making up a quarter of the total, the party's dominance is clear.Min Aung Hlaing's rise to the presidency is seen as a strategic pivot to consolidate his power as head of a nominally civilian government and gain international legitimacy. However, the ongoing civil war in Myanmar and the formation of a new combined front by anti-military groups pose significant challenges to his administration.

Kuwait has been hit by Iranian missile and drone strikes, targeting a crucial power and desalination plant, as well as the Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery. The attacks, which occurred on Friday, have raised concerns about the stability of the region and the potential for further escalation. The power and desalination plant was struck before midday local time, with the extent of the damage still unknown. The plant is critical for Kuwait's water supply, as the country is highly dependent on desalinated water. An Indian national was killed in a similar attack on March 30, and Iran denied claims it launched the attacks, blaming Israel instead. The Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery, one of the largest in the Middle East, was targeted in early morning drone strikes, resulting in fires in several operational units. No employees were injured, but emergency and firefighting teams were dispatched to the scene, and environmental authorities monitored the area for air quality. The attacks are part of a broader escalation of tensions in the Gulf region, with Iran launching retaliatory strikes against US and Israeli targets. The United Arab Emirates' defence ministry reported that it had intercepted 19 ballistic missiles and 26 drones on Thursday alone, while Saudi Arabia destroyed a drone in its airspace overnight. Iran's army spokesperson warned of impending attacks on regional power plants, while US President Donald Trump warned of intensifying strikes on Iran's infrastructure. The situation remains volatile, with concerns about the potential for further attacks and the impact on regional stability.

The ongoing conflict between Iran and the US-Israeli alliance has sent shockwaves through global oil markets, with Brent crude prices surging 5% to $106.16 per barrel on Thursday morning. Despite being heavily reliant on Iranian oil, China appears to have largely insulated itself from the crisis.China's strategy involves utilizing 'teapot refineries,' small, privately owned oil refineries primarily based in Shandong province. These facilities have been importing discounted Iranian and Russian oil, accounting for one-quarter of China's processing capacity. This approach allows China to circumvent US sanctions and maintain a stable oil supply.China's teapot refineries have been stockpiling oil reserves, providing a buffer against potential supply disruptions. According to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, China's seaborne crude imports in March stood at 10.19 million barrels per day (mbd), down from 11.51mbd in February but still in line with the 2025 average of 10.41mbd.The US has previously imposed sanctions on some of these teapot refineries for importing Iranian oil. However, China's tolerance of this independent system has proved strategically useful, allowing the country to maintain a flexible buffer for bargain barrels during crises.Experts note that while China's measures will not completely immunize the country from rising fuel prices, they do provide Beijing with more flexibility to survive a crisis compared with other nations. China's approach involves aggressive stockpiling, tolerating shadow networks, and keeping flexible buffers, demonstrating its preparedness for energy shocks.

Israel's ongoing attacks on Lebanon have led to a significant deterioration of the country's healthcare infrastructure. In the past month, 53 medical workers have been killed, 87 ambulances and medical centers destroyed, and five hospitals forced to close, according to Lebanon's Ministry of Public Health.The attacks have resulted in the displacement of 1.2 million people, putting an enormous strain on the already struggling Lebanese healthcare system. Experts and analysts say that Israel's actions are part of a broader strategy to force people out of southern Lebanon.“Israeli strikes and blanket evacuation orders are cutting people off from care and shrinking the space for health services to function,” said Luna Hammad, Lebanon medical coordinator for Doctors Without Borders (MSF). MSF has documented a pattern of attacks affecting healthcare.The destruction of healthcare infrastructure has also led to a significant increase in emergency room admissions. Healthcare facilities are under higher strain than before, with many patients needing treatments like chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and dialysis being transferred further north.Direct attacks on healthcare workers and facilities have been documented by Human Rights Watch (HRW), which has noted repeated, apparently deliberate attacks on medical workers in Lebanon. Medical workers and healthcare facilities are protected under international humanitarian law, and Israel's attacks on medics in 2024 were described as an apparent war crime by HRW.The attacks on healthcare infrastructure during times of war are not new. Forensic Architecture has documented systematic targeting of hospitals and healthcare workers in Gaza. Experts warn that such attacks have compounding effects, including treatable injuries getting worse, war wounds not healing properly, and long-term consequences.Experts and analysts say that the attacks are unlikely to cease as long as the pattern of impunity continues. Lebanon's government has a responsibility to ensure accountability and to give jurisdiction to the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate and prosecute war crimes.