Ukraine Halts Russian Advances, Deals Blow to Oil Exports and War Effort

Ukraine has made significant gains on the battlefield, halving the Russian rate of advance in the past three months and reclaiming 470sq km of occupied territory this year. The country's military has also dealt a major blow to Russia's oil export capacity, striking key terminals and refineries, including Ust-Luga and Primorsk, which account for about 60% of Russia's oil export capacity.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has secured agreements with several Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, to export Ukrainian drone know-how in return for joint drone production support. This has enabled Ukraine to increase its drone production and effectively counter Russian advances.

The Ukrainian military has also targeted Russian munitions production, striking the Promsintez explosives plant in the Samara region, which produces 30,000 tonnes of military explosives annually. According to estimates, Russia has lost 45% of its missile production capacity due to Ukrainian strikes.

In response to Ukrainian attacks, Russia has begun to extend its drone strikes throughout the day, imitating Iran's tactics against the US and Israel. However, Ukraine has successfully shot down over 90% of the drones launched by Russia.