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The Gulf Cooperation Council is reassessing its security model after the brief but intense US‑Israel campaign against Iran. With American bases on Gulf soil turning the region into a target for Tehran’s missile and drone barrage, Gulf capitals are looking to diversify their defence partners beyond the United States. Iran’s lingering missile arsenal and its demand to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz remain the central security dilemma. The strait channels the bulk of Gulf oil trade, and Tehran’s insistence on keeping a foothold there was a sticking point in the cease‑fire talks scheduled to begin in Islamabad. Gulf air defences boasted a high interception rate, claiming to have neutralised more than 90% of the 2,256 drones and 563 missiles that struck the United Arab Emirates, the hardest‑hit member of the bloc. Nevertheless, the Gulf is split on how to engage Iran moving forward. A hawkish bloc led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain favours a tougher stance, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others are open to restoring diplomatic ties. In a rare development, Saudi Arabia and Iran held their first official conversation since the conflict began, with foreign ministers discussing measures to lower tensions and restore regional stability. Security scholars such as Bader Mousa Al‑Saif of Kuwait University argue that Gulf states must broaden their security network, forging alliances with regional powers like Turkey and Pakistan rather than relying solely on the United States. He warned that the region needs a model that shields it from a perpetual state of war. Pre‑war trends are now accelerating: Saudi Arabia recently signed a defence pact with Pakistan, the UAE announced a partnership with India, and all three Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar – entered rapid defence agreements with Ukraine to counter Iranian drone threats. Talks of a “Muslim NATO” have largely faded, but a new alignment dubbed “Step”, involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, is taking shape. The coalition’s purpose remains ambiguous, oscillating between counter‑Iran and counter‑Israel objectives, and internal rivalries complicate cohesion. The United Kingdom, which helped protect Gulf airspace during the hostilities, is also seeking deeper defence‑industrial cooperation with Saudi Arabia, as discussed by Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Jeddah. UAE political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla predicts tighter security ties with the United States and a growing willingness among Gulf states to engage with Israel on military and intelligence fronts. Analysts such as Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group note that Saudi Arabia’s extensive oil infrastructure, Red Sea ports and sheer geographic size give it a strategic advantage in post‑war reconstruction, though the cost of rebuilding could strain its Vision 2030 diversification agenda. Looking ahead, the Gulf is expected to layer additional security partnerships—particularly with European nations—while investing heavily in air and missile defence, hardened ports, desalination facilities, maritime surveillance and alternative export routes. As Andreas Krieg of King’s College London observes, the United States remains the only power with a full‑scale military architecture in the Gulf, but its bases are increasingly viewed as “tripwires” rather than protective shields.

Japan's Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, announced on Friday that the country will release additional oil reserves early next month, equivalent to roughly 20 days' worth of oil, to ensure a stable supply of crude oil. This move comes as concern grows over energy shortages caused by the crisis in the Middle East.This will be the second time Japan has dipped into its strategic reserves since the US-Israel war on Iran started in February. Last month, Takaichi approved the release of 50 days' worth of oil, the government's biggest ever release, in an attempt to head off a spike in prices.Japan has enough oil in reserve to last 230 days, but it also imports 95% of its crude oil from the Middle East, most of which is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. The country is trying to secure oil from locations that do not ship via the Strait of Hormuz, amid uncertainty over whether the waterway will fully reopen after a two-week conditional ceasefire announced by Donald Trump this week.By May, Japan should be able to secure more than half of its oil imports via other routes, Takaichi said, although she did not provide details. The industry ministry has said that potential new sources for imports could include Yanbu on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast and the Port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.The decision to tap into oil reserves for a second time came as pressure grew on Japan's government to resist US pressure to become militarily involved in the conflict. More than 100 demonstrations were held across the country on Wednesday, with protesters urging Takaichi to abide by the postwar constitution, which forbids Japan from using the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes.

Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen has urged NATO allies to stand united in defending international law, following US President Donald Trump's recent comments about the Arctic island. Trump's remarks described Greenland as a 'big, poor, poorly run, piece of ice.'Nielsen firmly rejected this characterization, stating, 'We are not some piece of ice. We are a proud population of 57,000 people, working every single day as good global citizens in full respect for all our allies.'The Prime Minister emphasized the importance of maintaining the post-war geopolitical order, including NATO's defence alliance and globally respected international law. 'Those things are being challenged now, and I think all allies should stand together to try to maintain them. I hope that will happen,' he said.NATO allies had been scrambling earlier this year to keep the alliance together after Trump revived his push to seize Greenland from Denmark, a fellow NATO member. The White House in January said Trump was weighing the use of military force in Greenland, prompting Germany, France, and other European nations to send troops to the island in a show of solidarity and deterrence.Trump later backed down after talks with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, stating that 'the framework of a future deal' had been formed and moving the Greenland dispute to a diplomatic track. Diplomatic talks between Greenland, Denmark, and the US are ongoing, with more meetings scheduled.Despite the talks, Nielsen made it clear he did not believe Trump had abandoned his ambitions regarding the island: 'I cannot see that his desire to either take over or control Greenland has been taken off the table,' he said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on Thursday that it would be "dumb" for the United States to permit Israel to jeopardise the newly‑declared regional ceasefire by persisting with its intense bombardment of Lebanon, a campaign that has already claimed hundreds of lives. Araghchi noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial is set to resume on Sunday, suggesting the prime minister may have ulterior motives for sustaining the fighting. He wrote on social media that a ceasefire encompassing Lebanon would "hasten his jailing," implying that the truce could pressure Netanyahu’s legal woes. Addressing Washington directly, Araghchi said: "If the US wishes to crater its economy by letting Netanyahu kill diplomacy, that would ultimately be its choice. We think that would be dumb but are prepared for it." The statement echoes language used by U.S. Vice President JD Vance the previous day, who warned that Iran would find it "dumb" to let the ceasefire collapse over Lebanon, yet framed it as a choice for Tehran. Since the ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, the dispute over whether it applies to Lebanon has become a central obstacle to sustaining the truce. Iranian officials and media have hinted that Tehran could respond militarily to Israel’s assault on Lebanon or even block the Strait of Hormuz to enforce a Lebanon‑wide ceasefire. President Donald Trump told NBC News that he had spoken with Netanyahu and urged the Israeli government to "scale back" its operations in Lebanon, describing the approach as "low‑key." Vance also reported that Israeli officials had agreed to "check themselves a little bit in Lebanon." Despite these diplomatic overtures, the violence shows no sign of abating. The death toll from recent Israeli strikes in Lebanon has already surpassed 300, marking one of the deadliest days in the country’s recent history. On Thursday, Israel launched several new attacks, including a strike that killed four rescuers in the southern town of Borj Qalaouiye, and issued a displacement order for Beirut’s Jnah district, home to two major hospitals and tens of thousands of residents and displaced persons. The United States has a track record of asserting that Israel will curb its military actions, only to witness continued strikes. In 2024, the Biden administration insisted that Israel’s operation in Rafah was "limited," yet the Israeli military ultimately razed nearly every structure in the city, a tactic now hinted at for southern Lebanon. The Lebanese conflict escalated into full‑scale war in early March after Hezbollah fired rockets in retaliation for Israeli strikes and following the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28. Since a separate November 2024 ceasefire, Israel has maintained near‑daily attacks on Lebanon, targeting civilian infrastructure and deepening the humanitarian crisis.

On 9 April 2026, a group of Israeli settlers moved into the Al‑Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem shortly after the site was reopened to worshippers. The incursion, reported by Al Jazeera, sparked immediate concern among Palestinian authorities and international observers, who warned that such actions could further inflame long‑standing tensions over the holy site.Witnesses described the settlers as storming the compound, prompting a rapid response from local security forces attempting to restore order. The episode underscores the fragile security environment surrounding the Temple Mount/Haram al‑Sharif area, a flashpoint in the Israeli‑Palestinian conflict.Analysts note that the incident may have broader implications for diplomatic efforts in the region, potentially affecting ongoing negotiations and the stability of the broader Middle East. The event also raises questions about the enforcement of access agreements that govern the sensitive religious site.

The strategic Strait of Hormuz, linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, has become the focal point of the Israel‑U.S. war on Iran that began in February. In peacetime the narrow waterway handled about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments without any tolls, but the conflict has turned it into a contested zone. After a series of Israeli and U.S. strikes, Iran retaliated by targeting merchant vessels it deemed hostile, effectively shutting the passage and triggering one of the most severe energy‑distribution crises in recent memory. While a two‑week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, was declared on Tuesday, Tehran has issued a set of official terms that would govern the strait moving forward. According to Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghi, safe passage will be allowed in coordination with the Iranian armed forces and subject to technical limitations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has even published a new navigation map that pushes traffic farther north, away from the traditional route near Oman’s coast, citing the risk of anti‑ship mines. Central to Tehran’s 10‑point peace proposal is the idea of charging fees for strait usage. Iranian media report that the plan could levy up to $2 million per vessel—a sum to be shared with Oman—or a charge of $1 per barrel of oil shipped. The revenue would allegedly fund reconstruction of military and civilian infrastructure damaged by the U.S.–Israeli campaign. Oman has publicly rejected any toll scheme, with Transport Minister Said Al‑Maawali reminding that the country has already signed all relevant international maritime transport agreements that prohibit such fees. International law adds another layer of complexity. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) prohibits levying charges for mere passage through international straits, allowing fees only for services like navigation assistance or port use. Neither the United States nor Iran have ratified UNCLOS, but the principle remains a benchmark for maritime norms. Analysts suggest a possible workaround: charging for de‑mining and safety services rather than for passage itself, which could be permissible under existing legal frameworks. The proposal has sparked diplomatic pushback. At the United Nations Security Council, Bahrain led a resolution urging coordinated reopening of the strait, backed by Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan. The resolution passed with 11 of 15 votes, but was vetoed by Russia and China, who argued it unfairly targeted Iran and ignored the initial strikes. Beyond the region, the United States is unlikely to accept indefinite tolls. Former President Donald Trump, who announced the ceasefire, warned that U.S. forces would remain in the area and threatened to resume attacks if negotiations faltered. American troops are reportedly “hanging around” to assist with traffic buildup, though the extent of their operational control remains unclear. Maritime analyst C. Uday Bhaskar notes that only three to five ships have traversed the strait since the ceasefire began, underscoring the lingering uncertainty for global shippers. He adds that ship owners facing multi‑million‑dollar losses each day may ultimately acquiesce to Iran’s terms, at least temporarily. Should Iran implement a toll regime, the immediate impact would fall on Gulf oil‑producing nations, but the ripple effects could destabilize global energy markets, already strained by supply shocks. Major powers such as the United Kingdom have been coordinating with a coalition of 40 countries to explore alternative mechanisms for reopening the waterway without conceding to tolls. In sum, Iran’s proposed protocol for the Strait of Hormuz introduces a contentious new variable into an already volatile geopolitical landscape, pitting national security interests against established maritime law and the broader stability of world energy supplies.

In a stark assessment of the ongoing regional confrontation, Iranian officials acknowledge that the country has endured significant casualties, yet they assert that Tehran is gaining a strategic advantage over the combined forces of the United States and Israel. The narrative, presented by Al Jazeera on April 9, 2026, emphasizes that despite being "bloodied," Iran perceives its actions as a victory against the US‑Israel axis. This framing signals Tehran’s intent to portray resilience and influence, even as the human and material costs rise. Analysts note that such rhetoric serves multiple purposes: it bolsters domestic morale, signals to regional allies that Iran remains a formidable player, and attempts to undermine the cohesion of the US‑Israel partnership. By positioning itself as a winner in a conflict where the costs are visible, Iran aims to reshape the discourse around its regional role. While the article does not provide specific casualty figures or detailed military outcomes, the emphasis on a perceived strategic win suggests a broader shift in Tehran’s diplomatic messaging. The statement may also foreshadow Iran’s next steps in leveraging its position to negotiate from a place of perceived strength. Observers will watch closely how this narrative influences both Tehran’s internal politics and its external engagements with neighboring states, as well as how the United States and Israel respond to a claim of Iranian ascendancy despite evident hardships.

The piece titled The war on Iran: Nobody won, everyone paid examines the aftermath of the recent hostilities involving Iran. It argues that the conflict failed to deliver a decisive victory for any side, while inflicting widespread losses that reverberated throughout the Middle East.By highlighting the shared burdens—ranging from disrupted trade routes to strained diplomatic ties—the analysis underscores how the war deepened regional instability rather than resolving underlying tensions.In sum, the article portrays the Iran war as a costly stalemate, reminding policymakers that the true price of conflict is borne by all parties involved.

Lebanon has declared a national day of mourning following a devastating wave of Israeli attacks that killed at least 254 people and injured over 1,165 in a single day. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has mobilized 'all of Lebanon's political and diplomatic resources to stop the Israeli killing machine.'Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, a position echoed by US Vice President JD Vance, who said, 'We never made that promise.'Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who mediated the ceasefire, claimed the deal included a pause in fighting in Lebanon. However, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Washington must choose between a ceasefire or 'continued war via Israel,' emphasizing that it 'cannot have both.'Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said a halt to Israeli attacks in Lebanon was a key condition of Iran's 10-point plan for securing an end to the Middle East war. However, a US official stated that Iran's published ceasefire plan is not the same set of conditions agreed on by the White House.US Vice President JD Vance will lead the country's delegation for talks with Iran in Pakistan, while French President Emmanuel Macron has urged that Lebanon be included in the ceasefire as the 'best path to peace.'The conflict has also affected the Gulf region, with Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain reporting damage and disruptions from Iranian strikes. The situation remains volatile, with Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu stating that Israel is prepared to 'return to battle' if necessary.