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The New Economics Foundation (NEF) has proposed that the UK government provide subsidized energy to all households, funded through North Sea tax revenues. The plan would ensure that every household receives a set amount of energy at current rates, helping to protect the poorest households from rising energy costs.According to NEF, providing enough energy to heat two rooms, provide hot water, and run key appliances like a fridge and washing machine at frozen rates would require a subsidy of about £4.5bn. This amount is roughly equal to the expected windfall in tax revenues from the North Sea, generated by the high price of oil.The proposed measure, known as a price guarantee, would save all households more than £160 on their annual bills. However, this would amount to a saving of about 17% for those on low incomes compared with 11% for wealthier people. NEF argues that this would encourage those who can afford to pay to reduce their energy consumption and invest in energy-efficient measures.Alex Chapman, a senior economist at NEF, stated that similar measures have been successfully implemented in countries like Japan, South Korea, China, and India, as well as several European countries. He emphasized the need for the government to protect households' ability to meet their essential energy needs and to tax energy companies on their windfall profits.The energy cap is expected to rise by about £388 in July and could reach nearly £2,000 a year for dual-fuel households. NEF's proposal aims to mitigate the impact of rising energy costs on vulnerable households.

After Tehran announced a two‑week ceasefire in the Iran war, financial markets breathed a noticeable sigh of relief. Oil prices tumbled by more than 10% on Wednesday, stock indices rallied, and optimism about the global economic outlook resurfaced. However, the reprieve is far from complete.For six weeks the world’s economy has been under pressure as Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas shipments. The closure sparked what analysts have called the worst energy crisis of the modern era, driving oil to historic highs.Any progress toward re‑opening Hormuz would ease fears of a supply crunch that could otherwise trigger a cascade of recession risks. Yet the situation remains volatile: Tehran and Washington continue to send mixed signals about the waterway’s status, and Israel’s ongoing strikes in Lebanon add further uncertainty.Consumers already feel the strain. Despite the recent price dip, Brent crude remains above $90 a barrel, a sharp contrast to the sub‑$73 levels recorded before the conflict began. While this is an improvement from the period when prices hovered above $100, it still represents a significant premium over pre‑war benchmarks.Most economists expect oil to stay above its pre‑war price throughout 2026. In its baseline forecast, consultancy Capital Economics projects Brent to settle around $80 per barrel by year‑end. Under that scenario, headline inflation in the United States and Europe would hover between 3% and 4% year‑on‑year, while GDP growth is likely to decelerate across major economies.The lingering uncertainty is amplified by the unpredictable stances of both Iran and the United States, as well as the broader geopolitical turbulence involving Israel. Prior to the conflict, few analysts believed Tehran would actually close Hormuz, a threat it has floated intermittently since the 1979 revolution.Given the strait’s pivotal role in the world economy, any prolonged disruption could add a costly premium to global business operations. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in a recent report that wars since 1946 have left “economic scars” lasting more than a decade. The IMF cautioned that even after a ceasefire, persistent political and economic uncertainty can depress investment returns, fuel capital outflows, and constrain both investment and labor supply.In short, while the ceasefire has delivered a short‑term boost to markets, the underlying energy‑price pressures and geopolitical risks mean that the relief is far from absolute.

Oil markets experienced a dramatic correction on Wednesday, with Brent crude falling 13.9% to $94.10 per barrel and U.S. WTI futures sliding almost 16% to $95, marking the steepest daily percentage drop since the COVID‑19 crash of April 2020. Despite the plunge, prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels, when Brent traded below $73.The price shock followed President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week, conditional ceasefire with Iran, contingent on Tehran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed the strait would be managed by the Iranian military during the grace period, while Iran’s national security council accepted the ceasefire on the condition that U.S. attacks be halted.Equity markets reacted positively. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 surged 4%, its biggest one‑day gain in over four years. In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed nearly 3% to 10,646 points, its highest level since the early days of the Iran war. Travel and leisure stocks led the rally, with Air France up 14.5%, Lufthansa +11%, IAG +9.5% and TUI +12%.Oil majors were the notable laggards; BP and Shell each lost more than 5% as investors priced in continued supply uncertainty. Asian markets also posted strong gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose over 5%, Australia’s S&P;/ASX 200 jumped 2.55%, South Korea’s Kospi surged 7.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 3.1% and China’s CSI300 climbed 3.2%.Bond yields eased on the ceasefire news. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield fell to 4.24% from 4.30%, while the UK 10‑year gilt slipped to 4.7% from 4.9%.Safe‑haven assets rallied as well: gold rose more than 2% to $4,812 per ounce, and cryptocurrencies recovered, with Bitcoin up 2.9% to $71,327 and Ether gaining 5.6% to $2,234.Market strategists emphasized the provisional nature of the relief. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank markets strategist, warned that “investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief, but the durability of the ceasefire remains the key risk.” He noted ongoing Israeli‑Iran strikes and unclear extensions to Lebanon could reignite volatility.Energy analyst Saul Kavonic (MST Financial) described the pause as “an off‑ramp for Trump’s bombastic ultimatum, but not yet an off‑ramp for oil markets or the war.” He expects a limited release of tankers from Hormuz in May, which would ease storage pressure without boosting production.Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing highlighted potential transit fees for Hormuz passage, estimating a $1‑2 million charge per tanker—equivalent to roughly $1 per barrel—would have a modest effect on global oil prices but could signal a de‑facto partial nationalisation of the route.TD Securities senior strategist Prashant Newnaha cautioned that “renewed escalation cannot be ruled out, but markets are treating this ceasefire as the real deal, and all parties will sell it as a major win.” He added that oil prices are unlikely to revert to pre‑war levels, keeping inflationary pressures alive.Earlier in the week, U.S. equities swung sharply, with the S&P; 500 dipping 1.2% before rebounding after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend the deadline and keep the strait open.The conflict, which began after the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian targets in late February, has choked the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies flow—fueling a worldwide energy crunch.

Opening new oil and gas fields in the North Sea would send a shock wave around the world, senior climate diplomats warned, saying the move would imperil international climate targets, erode the United Kingdom’s reputation as a climate leader and embolden developing countries to exploit their own fossil‑fuel reserves.The UK government faces intense lobbying from the oil industry, Conservative MPs, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, certain trade unions and factions within the Treasury. Yet research shows that new drilling would do little to lower energy prices and would have almost no impact on gas imports.Two of the remaining large North Sea prospects – the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields – sit in a basin that is over 90% depleted and increasingly costly to develop. Even if fully exploited, they would displace only about 1% and 2% of the UK’s gas imports respectively, according to recent analysis.Senior figures in international climate diplomacy described the prospect of new drilling as dangerous for global emissions‑reduction efforts and a step back from the phase‑out of fossil fuels.Lord Nicolas Stern, professor at the London School of Economics, warned that “new drilling and a slowdown in climate action would be bad for growth and for energy security in the UK, and a damaging signal for the world.” He added that the UK’s pioneering climate legislation and its role as the first G7 nation to commit to net‑zero by 2050 give its actions “extra weight” on the global stage.An anonymous senior African negotiator reacted angrily to the proposal, stating that Africa would “reject any proposal for the UK to expand oil drilling” because it is “fundamentally inconsistent with both the letter and spirit of the Paris Agreement” and would “weaken trust with climate‑vulnerable nations”.Christiana Figueres, former UN climate chief and co‑founder of the Global Optimism think‑tank, argued that true energy independence lies in “scaling clean, domestic energy, not in extending the life of declining industries”. She cautioned that reverting to old‑fashioned oil expansion would lock in infrastructure at odds with the direction of the global energy system.The UK has been a vocal supporter of an upcoming conference in Colombia on the “transition away from fossil fuels”, a pledge made three years ago at COP28 that remains largely unfulfilled. However, the Guardian learned that Ed Miliband, the UK secretary of state for energy security and net‑zero, will not attend; the government’s climate envoy, Rachel Kyte, will travel in his place.Campaigners had urged Miliband’s presence, citing his pivotal role in securing a last‑minute deal at COP30 in Brazil last November.Experts caution that licensing new fields before the Colombian summit could undermine progress in persuading developing nations to forgo fossil‑fuel‑based economies and adopt cleaner energy pathways.Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa think‑tank, warned that a UK approval would “send a shock wave around the world that short‑term interests are being prioritised over long‑term responsibility”. He stressed that many African countries are being asked to leapfrog to clean energy with limited financial support, and that wealthy nations continuing to invest in fossil fuels “undermine this message and diminish their credibility”.Several developing‑country officials echoed this concern, asking, “Why shouldn’t we tap into our own fossil‑fuel resources if the UK is doing so?” They argued that leadership on climate must be consistent with actions.An ally of Miliband praised the UK’s stance, calling “no new exploration licences” a “landmark global leadership position” that shows a major oil‑producing country can align policy with climate science to avoid a 3‑4°C warming scenario.A government spokesperson reaffirmed the administration’s commitment, stating that the UK has placed “clean energy and climate at the heart of its agenda”, and that it will continue to “stop issuing licences to explore new fields, in line with the science and in securing a just transition in the North Sea”.

Tens of thousands of people have been hired by Scale AI – a firm 49% owned by Meta – to train artificial‑intelligence models by scraping Instagram accounts, harvesting copyrighted artwork and transcribing pornographic soundtracks, according to the Guardian.Scale AI promotes its Outlier platform as a flexible, expert‑driven marketplace, recruiting professionals from medicine, physics and economics to "become the expert that AI learns from."Workers, however, say the reality diverges sharply from high‑level model refinement. They describe tasks that involve massive personal‑data scraping and content that many find morally uncomfortable.Outlier is managed by Scale AI, which holds contracts with the U.S. Pentagon and other defense companies. Its chief executive, Alexandr Wang, is hailed by Forbes as the world’s youngest self‑made billionaire, while former managing director Michael Kratsios served as science adviser to former President Donald Trump.One contractor noted that users of Meta platforms would be shocked to learn their photos and friends’ images are being harvested for AI training, with workers manually reviewing profiles to extract data.The Guardian interviewed ten Outlier contributors – many also journalists, graduate students, teachers or librarians – who took the gig work out of economic desperation. One said, "A lot of us were really desperate" and felt compelled to accept the unstable, low‑pay assignments.These gig workers, dubbed “taskers,” often feel they are training their own replacements, expressing “internalised shame and guilt” over contributing to the automation of creative professions.Law firm Clarkson, representing AI gig workers, estimates that hundreds of thousands of people worldwide now labor on platforms like Outlier. Taskers report bait‑and‑switch recruitment tactics, where advertised high salaries are replaced by lower‑paid projects after onboarding.All contributors are monitored through a tool called Hubstaff, which can screenshot browsers to verify work. While Scale AI claims the software is only for accurate payment, workers describe it as constant surveillance.Assignments have ranged from transcribing pornographic audio and labeling photos of dead animals or dog faeces, to annotating diagrams of infant genitalia and violent police scenarios. One doctoral student recounted being promised “no nudity” only to receive explicit porn clips.Scale AI says it shuts down any task flagged as inappropriate and does not accept projects involving child sexual‑abuse material or pornography, though workers note that publicly available images of minors have been used for training.Social‑media scraping tasks required workers to tag individuals by name, location and age, sometimes pulling data from accounts of users under 18. One task asked contributors to order Facebook photos by the subject’s age, prompting ethical unease.In addition to personal data, taskers were asked to harvest copyrighted artwork, with strict instructions to avoid AI‑generated images and select only hand‑drawn pieces. Scale AI maintains it does not ask workers to violate copyright standards.Scale AI’s client list includes major tech firms such as Google, Meta and OpenAI, as well as the U.S. Department of Defense and the government of Qatar, highlighting the growing demand for labelled data as AI models scale.Some workers reported interacting with ChatGPT and Claude, and speculated they might be training Meta’s upcoming model, code‑named “Avocado.”OpenAI announced it ended its partnership with Scale AI in June 2025, citing its supplier code of conduct that mandates ethical treatment of all workers.Despite irregular pay, occasional mass layoffs and the unsettling nature of many tasks, many taskers remain on the Outlier platform, hoping the AI future will eventually improve conditions. One said, "I have to be positive about AI because the alternative is not great."In response, a Scale AI spokesperson stated, "Outlier provides flexible, project‑based work with transparent pay. Contributors choose when and how they participate, and we regularly hear from highly skilled contributors who value the flexibility and opportunity to apply their expertise on the platform."

Apple is escalating its legal war with Epic Games by petitioning the U.S. Supreme Court to review the court's ruling on App Store fees. This move signals a critical juncture in the tech giant's defense of its revenue model, as it attempts to overturn a decision that limits its ability to charge developers for external payments. The Strategic Shift to the Highest Court After losing its appeal at the Supreme Court in a previous phase of the case, Apple is now taking its fight to the highest level of the U.S. judiciary. The tech giant filed a petition to review the Ninth Circuit Court's ruling, which found Apple in contempt for charging a 27% fee on external payments—a slight discount from its standard 30% fee. Current Status: Apple secured a temporary stay on the Ninth Circuit's ruling on April 6, 2026, effectively pausing the enforcement of the lower court's decision. Epic's Response: Epic Games immediately challenged this stay, arguing it is merely a delay tactic to prevent the court from establishing permanent bounds on Apple's fees. Legal Timeline: The battle began in 2020 when Epic bypassed Apple's fees, leading to a 2021 ruling where Apple was not deemed a monopoly but was ordered to allow external payment links. The Economics of the 27% External Fee The core of Apple's legal strategy revolves around the justification of its fee structure. While Apple reduced its commission to 27% for external transactions, Epic argues this effectively defeats the purpose of the court order, as developers still do not save significant money due to processing fees. Apple's Stance: The company argues the fee covers more than just payment processing; it includes hosting, discovery, software, and developer tools, reflecting the value of the ecosystem. Competitor Benchmark: Google settled with Epic Games last month, dropping its Play Store commissions to 20%, highlighting the pressure Apple faces to lower its rates. Developer Impact: Only a few developers, including Spotify, Kindle, and Patreon, have been willing to utilize the external payment links due to Apple's aggressive tactics. Erosion of the App Store Moat This legal battle represents a significant threat to Apple's primary revenue stream. If the Supreme Court upholds the lower courts' rulings, it could force Apple to lower its commissions or abandon its current fee structure entirely. Market Dynamics: As consumers increasingly turn to AI chatbots and agents for transactions, the traditional gatekeeper role of the App Store is being challenged. Regulatory Pressure: The court's decision will set a precedent for how tech giants can regulate commerce within their ecosystems, potentially opening the door for more developer freedom. A High-Stakes Legal Verdict Looking ahead, the Supreme Court's willingness to hear this case is uncertain. The Court previously declined to hear a similar appeal regarding Apple's monopoly status. If they reject this petition, the Ninth Circuit's decision stands, and Apple will be forced to comply with the lower fee structure. However, if the Court agrees to hear it, Apple will push to convince judges that courts should not have the authority to limit the fees it charges for its services, potentially reshaping the digital economy for years to come.

The US war on Iran has now entered its sixth week, with the conflict showing no signs of abating. What was initially touted as a 'precise, overwhelming military campaign' to eliminate 'an imminent nuclear threat' has instead become a protracted and costly endeavor. The war has resulted in rising costs for the US in military equipment and personnel, and has had a significant impact on energy markets, with forecasts of a potential global economic recession in the event of a prolonged conflict.The conflict has also highlighted the Iranian regime's capacity for asymmetric warfare, with the country deploying cheap drones and missiles to disrupt energy facilities and compromise economies in the Gulf region. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has also had a significant impact on the war effort, with the US and its allies struggling to reopen it.The US's failure to understand the Iranian regime's subjective complex dynamics has been a significant factor in the conflict's prolongation. The regime's ability to withstand pain and prolonged escalation without a clear scenario of military victory against a superpower has been underestimated, and its proxy groups, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, have proven to be effective in advancing its interests and preventing outcomes that weaken or isolate it further.The conflict has also highlighted the diverging definitions of victory between the US and Iran, with the US seeking a swift and decisive victory, while Iran is focused on maintaining its viability on its own terms in the face of American hegemony. As the war continues, the question remains: how will this conflict end?

The notion that war is more profitable than peace may seem counterintuitive, but it is a concept that has been explored by economists and political scientists. David Keen, a renowned expert in the field, sheds light on the complex relationship between conflict and economics. In a world where wars are often funded by governments and fueled by industries such as arms manufacturing, the financial stakes are high.Keen's work challenges the conventional wisdom that war is solely a destructive force. Instead, he argues that war can be a lucrative business for certain individuals and groups. The production and sale of weapons, for instance, can generate significant profits. Moreover, the reconstruction efforts that follow a conflict can also be a lucrative venture.However, the human cost of war cannot be overstated. The devastating impact on civilians, infrastructure, and the environment is well-documented. As such, the question remains as to whether the economic benefits of war outweigh the humanitarian costs.

Behrooz Ghamari‑Tabrizi draws parallels between the protracted Iran‑Iraq war (1980‑1988) and the emerging strategic calculus of a potential US‑Israeli confrontation with Tehran. He argues that the historical conflict offers cautionary insights on regional alliances, war economics, and the limits of external intervention. The analysis underscores how prolonged attrition, shifting loyalties, and the impact on civilian populations could shape any future engagement involving the United States and Israel against Iran.