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The US inflation rate experienced a significant surge in March, rising to 3.3% over the year, with prices increasing by 0.9% compared to the previous month. This spike is largely attributed to the escalating conflict with Iran, which has resulted in a substantial increase in energy prices.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for energy rose by 10.9% in March, primarily driven by a 21.2% increase in gasoline prices. This increase accounted for nearly three-quarters of the monthly all-items increase. Airfares also saw a notable rise, increasing by 2.7% in March and 14.9% higher than a year earlier.Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at a more modest 0.2% over the month and was 2.6% higher over the year. The annualized inflation rate has not exceeded 3% since summer 2024.The conflict with Iran has driven the American economy into deeper uncertainty, adding to the precariousness that began with Donald Trump's tariffs last year. The war has also led to a rise in oil prices, with US crude oil priced 10% higher than before the conflict and nearly 30% higher since the start of the year.Recent data shows that prices are affecting producers, with the gross domestic product (GDP) for the last quarter of 2025 revised down from an initial 1.4% to 0.5%. The prices index in the Institute for Supply Management's survey of managers saw its largest one-month increase in 13 years, rising from 63 in February to 70.7 in March.Consumer confidence is also falling, with the University of Michigan's closely-watched consumer confidence survey recording a 10.7% drop to its lowest level on record. Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy.Despite the challenges, the labor market appears resilient, with employers adding 178,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. However, the Federal Reserve faces a tricky situation in adjusting interest rates amid the conflict, as raising rates could help curb inflation but risk destabilizing the labor market and increasing unemployment.

At a Wednesday briefing, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt framed the ongoing US‑Israel war against Iran as a "test" that NATO failed, hinting that President Donald Trump is weighing a possible withdrawal from the alliance. She quoted the president saying the partnership had turned its back on the American people over the past six weeks. Shortly thereafter, Trump met with NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte at the White House. Both described the discussion as "frank and open," with Rutte acknowledging logistical support and base access from allies, but noting the absence of direct military contributions. During a CNN interview, host Jake Tapper asked Rutte whether the president intended to pull the United States out of NATO or at least reduce its backing. Rutte admitted there was disappointment, yet emphasized he had listened carefully to Trump’s arguments and praised the president’s leadership. Since assuming office in 2025, Trump has intensified pressure on NATO members to raise defence spending. At the 2025 NATO summit, members agreed to a non‑binding target of 5 % of GDP by 2035. Spain’s request for an exemption sparked a year‑long public denouncement by Trump. Earlier, Trump threatened to seize the Danish territory of Greenland, claiming its strategic value, though the United States has since softened that stance. Nevertheless, he continues to argue that US control of Greenland is essential, despite opposition from local residents and European leaders. The Wall Street Journal reported that the administration is evaluating the closure of U.S. bases or the redeployment of troops from countries such as Spain and Germany as retaliation for their limited engagement in the Iran conflict. When pressed about a potential NATO exit, Leavitt confirmed that the president "has discussed" the option and may address it after his meeting with Rutte. The president’s relationship with Rutte remains close; the Dutch leader has visited the White House multiple times during Trump’s second term. Rutte warned that NATO "will not work" without U.S. support, underscoring the strategic stakes of any American pull‑back. The unfolding debate highlights a deepening rift between Washington and its European partners at a time when the broader geopolitical landscape is already destabilised by the Iran war.

After Tehran announced a two‑week ceasefire in the Iran war, financial markets breathed a noticeable sigh of relief. Oil prices tumbled by more than 10% on Wednesday, stock indices rallied, and optimism about the global economic outlook resurfaced. However, the reprieve is far from complete.For six weeks the world’s economy has been under pressure as Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas shipments. The closure sparked what analysts have called the worst energy crisis of the modern era, driving oil to historic highs.Any progress toward re‑opening Hormuz would ease fears of a supply crunch that could otherwise trigger a cascade of recession risks. Yet the situation remains volatile: Tehran and Washington continue to send mixed signals about the waterway’s status, and Israel’s ongoing strikes in Lebanon add further uncertainty.Consumers already feel the strain. Despite the recent price dip, Brent crude remains above $90 a barrel, a sharp contrast to the sub‑$73 levels recorded before the conflict began. While this is an improvement from the period when prices hovered above $100, it still represents a significant premium over pre‑war benchmarks.Most economists expect oil to stay above its pre‑war price throughout 2026. In its baseline forecast, consultancy Capital Economics projects Brent to settle around $80 per barrel by year‑end. Under that scenario, headline inflation in the United States and Europe would hover between 3% and 4% year‑on‑year, while GDP growth is likely to decelerate across major economies.The lingering uncertainty is amplified by the unpredictable stances of both Iran and the United States, as well as the broader geopolitical turbulence involving Israel. Prior to the conflict, few analysts believed Tehran would actually close Hormuz, a threat it has floated intermittently since the 1979 revolution.Given the strait’s pivotal role in the world economy, any prolonged disruption could add a costly premium to global business operations. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in a recent report that wars since 1946 have left “economic scars” lasting more than a decade. The IMF cautioned that even after a ceasefire, persistent political and economic uncertainty can depress investment returns, fuel capital outflows, and constrain both investment and labor supply.In short, while the ceasefire has delivered a short‑term boost to markets, the underlying energy‑price pressures and geopolitical risks mean that the relief is far from absolute.

The conflict in Iran has underscored how fragile a world built on fossil fuels truly is, with disruptions to oil, gas and fertilizer shipments adding millions of tonnes of greenhouse‑gas emissions to an already critical climate system.While Saudi Arabia and other petrostates blocked any mention of a fossil‑fuel phase‑out at the UN COP30 summit last November, a new diplomatic effort is gathering momentum outside the UN framework.On 28‑29 April, Colombia will host the First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels. Unlike UN negotiations, the summit will be decided by majority vote, preventing a handful of countries from derailing progress.The event is co‑sponsored by Colombia – the world’s fifth‑largest coal exporter – and the Netherlands, home to Royal Dutch Shell. Organisers have invited nations that supported the COP30 roadmap, as well as sub‑national leaders such as California Governor Gavin Newsom, a potential 2028 U.S. presidential contender.Delegates, described as a “coalition of the willing”, will share concrete plans to shift their economies away from fossil fuels while safeguarding workers and communities. Climate activists, Indigenous representatives and trade‑union leaders will also contribute ideas for turning the abstract goal of decarbonisation into actionable policy.One focal point will be the reduction of the $7 trillion per year in global fossil‑fuel subsidies, a figure that the International Energy Agency warns could be trimmed without harming the livelihoods that depend on these funds. UN Secretary‑General António Guterres has urged the International Energy Agency to create a platform that aligns the decline of fossil‑fuel investment with rapid clean‑energy expansion.The real leverage of this coalition lies in its economic weight. The 85 countries that backed the COP30 roadmap together account for a gross national product of $33.3 trillion—surpassing the United States’ $30.6 trillion and far exceeding China’s $19.4 trillion.If the Just Transition conference produces a credible, market‑oriented plan, it could send a clear signal to investors and policymakers that the era of oil, gas and coal is ending, prompting a reallocation of capital away from stranded‑asset risks.Adding California’s $4.1 trillion GDP to the coalition’s total would create an economic bloc of roughly $37.4 trillion, approaching the combined $50 trillion output of the United States and China.Newsom has repeatedly positioned California as a climate leader, noting that two‑thirds of the state’s electricity now comes from non‑carbon sources and that its economy has risen from the world’s sixth to fourth largest. He pledged that California will fill the void left by the United States’ retreat from the Paris Agreement by competing in global green‑technology markets.Public opinion supports such a shift: between 80 % and 89 % of the world’s population wants stronger climate action. The upcoming conference therefore represents a pivotal chance to translate widespread demand into a coordinated, economically powerful push for a fossil‑fuel‑free future.

The Iran war has laid bare the world's reliance on fossil fuels, with oil prices reaching $110 a barrel and potentially rising to $150. This has significant implications for global food security, with food prices expected to leap further due to a fertiliser supply crunch.The UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, noted that fossil fuel dependency is 'ripping away national security and sovereignty and replacing it with subservience and rising costs.' The world's top emitters are divided into two camps: those pursuing a low-carbon future and those determined to exploit their fossil fuel reserves.China, the world's biggest emitter, is leading the charge for an electrified future, with renewables growing at record levels and clean energy driving a third of its GDP growth. India has also set ambitious targets, aiming to generate 60% of its electricity from low-carbon sources by 2035.In contrast, countries like the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are benefiting from high fossil fuel prices, with the US oil and gas sector set for a $60bn windfall. The US under Trump stands out as a paradox, with emissions falling until last year but now facing a potential rollback of climate protections.The war in Iran has also highlighted the need for a global transition to clean energy. As John Kerry noted, 'The future is being able to harness the power of electrons and send them where we need them, and use them where and when we need them.' Reducing methane emissions could cut temperatures by 0.3C by the 2040s, and a mandatory methane agreement may be necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

The Israeli war on Gaza has resulted in a catastrophic economic collapse, leaving 70 percent of Gaza's residents under 30 without work or opportunities. The unemployment rate in the Gaza Strip has soared to 80 percent, with the local gross domestic product (GDP) plummeting by 87 percent over the past two years.Mahmoud Shamiya, a university graduate, exemplifies the struggles of Gaza's youth. He had dreams of becoming a teacher but now spends his days surviving in a tent, fetching water, and scavenging for firewood. The destruction of Gaza's educational infrastructure has effectively paused the lives of students trapped inside the besieged enclave.The systematic destruction of universities and schools has erased 22 years of development in Gaza, leaving the territory's youth cut off from the outside world and denied the ability to study, work, or secure their basic survival. Economists warn that the situation is a generational catastrophe.Mona Al-Mashharawi, who was scheduled to travel to Algeria for her university studies, is now trapped in Gaza. She laments, 'Two years of my life have been lost, and I am now entering the third. These years are automatically vanishing from our lives.'The private sector, once Gaza's main economic engine, has been shattered, with 90 percent of all sectors, including housing and infrastructure, wiped out. The total economic losses are estimated to be $70 billion.The blockade has drained the territory of essential goods and raw materials, with 80 percent of the population relying entirely on international humanitarian assistance to stay alive. However, aid entering the territory falls drastically short of the daily target of 2,000 tonnes.

Ramesh Kumar, a 42‑year‑old wheat farmer in Gurdaspur, Punjab, India, is already recalculating his budget as fertiliser prices climb and deliveries become erratic.He worries that higher input costs could force him to postpone his daughter’s wedding, delay school fees for his children, or even cut back on the amount of fertiliser he applies – a decision that could lower his harvest.While the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran unfolds thousands of kilometres away, its ripple effects are felt in the fields of Punjab, Kashmir, Pakistan’s South Punjab, Bangladesh’s Rangpur and Nepal’s Gulmi district.The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint linking Gulf oil and gas producers to global markets, handles roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments. Disruptions here delay the flow of natural gas used to produce nitrogen‑based fertilisers, inflating freight, insurance and ultimately fertiliser prices.South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, depends heavily on fertiliser‑intensive agriculture. In India, the sector is worth about $400 billion and employs over 46 % of the workforce; in Pakistan, it contributes close to 20 % of GDP; Bangladesh’s agriculture accounts for 12‑13 % of GDP; and Nepal relies on agriculture for roughly 24 % of its economy.Between 30 % and 35 % of India’s fertiliser imports, and up to 25‑30 % of Pakistan’s, Bangladesh’s, and Nepal’s imports, travel through routes that pass the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged blockage could therefore strain supply chains across the region.Governments are attempting to reassure farmers. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced expanded domestic production of urea, DAP and NPK, as well as the rollout of “Made‑in‑India Nano Urea” and solar‑powered irrigation under the PM Kusum scheme.Pakistan’s federal secretary for agriculture highlighted proactive monitoring, increased domestic urea and DAP output, and measures to keep fertiliser affordable.Bangladesh plans to import 500,000 tonnes of urea in the short term and is exploring alternative sources from China and Morocco, while Nepal’s agriculture ministry says supplies for the upcoming rainy season are secured, though it warns of possible shipment delays.On the ground, farmers are already adjusting. In Kashmir, mustard grower Ghulam Rasool says he reduces fertiliser use as soon as price signals rise, even before actual shortages appear. In Pakistan’s South Punjab, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad fears higher costs will affect the entire community. In Bangladesh, Mohammad Ibrahim notes that fertiliser availability is becoming unpredictable, and in Nepal, Meghnath Aryal worries that delayed deliveries will hurt crop yields.These individual decisions have broader implications. Reduced fertiliser application can lower yields, which in turn pushes up food prices—a critical concern in a region where households allocate a large share of income to food.While no immediate shortage has been declared, the combination of higher global energy prices, logistical bottlenecks and geopolitical risk makes the situation volatile. Authorities in all four countries are urging farmers to supplement chemical inputs with organic alternatives such as manure, compost and green manuring.For Ramesh Kumar and millions of his peers, the distant Gulf crisis is not an abstract geopolitical story; it is a daily calculation of whether they can afford to feed their families and meet essential expenses.

The global super-rich may have as much as $3.55 trillion hidden away from tax authorities, according to estimates by Oxfam. This staggering amount is more than 3% of global GDP and is likely to be owned by the richest 0.1% of households.Oxfam's latest analysis reveals that total wealth held offshore has increased significantly to $13.25 trillion in 2023. While the share of secretive holdings hidden from tax authorities has fallen since the introduction of a new system of automatic information exchange between jurisdictions in 2016, Oxfam estimates that a substantial amount remains shielded from tax.The charity's lead on tax, Christian Hallum, emphasized that this isn't just about clever accounting, but about power and impunity. When millionaires and billionaires stash trillions of dollars in offshore tax havens, they place themselves above the obligations that bind the rest of society.Oxfam is part of a global campaign to mobilize calls for a global progressive wealth tax, including through negotiations at the UN on a framework for tax cooperation. The charity is also calling for countries in the global south to be included in the Common Reporting Standard – the system that allows for information exchange between jurisdictions.In the UK, Oxfam is urging Labour to implement a wealth tax, with the Green leader in England and Wales, Zack Polanski, suggesting a tax levied annually at a rate of 1% on assets worth more than £10m, and 2% above £100m. The Green party claims this policy would raise about £15 billion a year.

A devastating explosion at a military base in Burundi's economic capital, Bujumbura, has resulted in at least 13 civilian fatalities and 57 injuries. The blast, caused by an electrical short circuit, occurred at the main ammunition depot of the Burundi National Defence Force (FDNB) in Musaga, a densely populated area.The army reported that houses and private vehicles were damaged in various neighborhoods, while military equipment and facilities were destroyed or burned. Three soldiers were among those wounded, but the army did not specify if any soldiers had been killed.The explosion occurred in a densely populated area adjoining the Higher Institute for Military Cadres (ISCAM), where aspiring army officers are trained and housed. Firefighting efforts were initially slowed by a water shortage, exacerbating the damage.Burundi, ranked by the World Bank as the world's poorest country by GDP per capita in 2023, has faced years of deep economic crises, including a severe fuel shortage. President Evariste Ndayishimiye expressed his sympathy to the victims, while authorities urged citizens to report unexploded munitions.