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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecast downward to 3.1 percent this year, citing the impact of rising tensions between the United States and Iran on energy and food costs worldwide.The downgrade comes as Iran has retaliated against US and Israeli actions by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil and gas supplies, and attacking energy infrastructure in the region. This has driven up oil prices and squeezed oil and gas supplies, affecting countries reliant on these imports.The IMF's new forecast represents a slowdown from its earlier projection of 3.3 percent growth, made before the escalation of tensions. It also marks a decline from 3.4 percent growth in the previous year. The fund warns that some regions and countries will be hit harder than others.Iran's economic outlook saw one of the largest country-level revisions, with a forecast contraction of 6.1 percent in 2026, down from an initial small growth forecast. The IMF also cut GDP growth forecasts for Saudi Arabia from 4.5 percent to 3.1 percent.The IMF's Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that the current hostilities in the Middle East pose significant policy trade-offs, including fighting inflation and preserving growth. The fund anticipates higher global inflation at 4.4 percent, up 0.6 percentage points from its January forecast.Experts warn that continued strains in the Strait of Hormuz could worsen inflationary pressures. For instance, a sustained $60 increase in gas prices above the average price could put the US firmly in recession territory.Oil prices have dropped on hopes of resumed talks between Iran and the US, with Brent crude futures falling to $95.02 per barrel and West Texas intermediate crude dropping to $91.84. However, prices remain much higher than before the Iran war.

The Sea of Azov, once a cherished destination for Ukrainians, has become a casualty of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The 2022 invasion resulted in Russia seizing the entire sea, creating a 'land bridge' to safeguard its control of Crimea. For Ukrainians like Mariya Bubnova, the sea holds fond memories of sailing and family traditions.Bubnova, a displaced person and mother of two, recalls the warm and barely salty waters of the Azov, where she and her friends would rent sailboats. However, the Russian invasion destroyed her family's business, and they were forced to flee to the Netherlands. The loss of Azov has had a devastating impact on Ukraine's economy, with estimated losses of 10-12% of its GDP and $12.4 trillion in resources, including coal mines, metals, and rare earth minerals.While Russia has gained control of Azov, the victory is considered a Pyrrhic one, with destroyed industrial assets and infrastructure rendering the area largely unusable. The steel plants of Mariupol, once a major industrial hub, lie in ruins, and the seawater is polluted due to the destroyed sewage system and shelling. Furthermore, Russia's gains in terms of industrial assets are estimated to be 'almost zero', as Moscow can only utilize the industrial area of the city of Melitopol.The conflict has also led to a significant brain drain, with refugees from the area settling in other parts of Ukraine or in the West. Bubnova and her family have had to adapt to a new life in Slavutych, a former company town north of Kyiv. Despite the challenges, she and her husband have started a new company to produce canned soups, and her daughter has developed a new recipe for borscht.A possible development that could dramatically boost Azov's geopolitical status is the proposed canal between Azov and the Caspian Sea, which would give Caspian nations access to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. However, this project would rival the Suez Canal and bolster Russia's role in the region, potentially working against China, Türkiye, and Iran.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has strongly criticized the US decision to engage in a war with Iran without a clear exit strategy, labeling it a 'folly' that has significant economic implications for the UK and the world. In an interview with the Mirror before her trip to Washington for the International Monetary Fund spring meeting, Reeves expressed her frustration and anger over the US's approach to the conflict. She emphasized that the war was not initiated by the UK and that the US's lack of a clear plan has led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for Iranian oil shipments. Reeves stated, 'This is a war that we did not start. It was a war that we did not want. I feel very frustrated and angry that the US went into this war without a clear exit plan, without a clear idea of what they were trying to achieve.' She added that the conflict's impact is being felt globally, including in the UK, and that it was sensible for the UK to avoid involvement. The criticism comes after a tumultuous period marked by the collapse of peace talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad and the official start of a US blockade on Iranian ports. The situation has contributed to rising oil prices and threatens to increase inflation worldwide. The IMF has released new forecasts indicating that the UK will experience the biggest economic impact among G7 countries, with GDP growth revised down to 0.8% from 1.3%. Reeves has pledged to support households with energy bills if they rise and is under pressure to reconsider a planned fuel duty increase. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has established a committee to discuss the war's impact on Britain, which met for the first time on Friday. He will also attend an international summit in Paris to address safeguarding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The recent conflict in the Gulf has served as a harsh wake-up call for the British public regarding the state of the UK's armed forces. While air defence systems and fighter jets were swiftly deployed, the delayed arrival of a single destroyer, HMS Dragon, to Cyprus underscored concerns about Britain's military preparedness. Former Nato secretary general George Robertson criticised Keir Starmer for showing a 'corrosive complacency towards defence', warning that this put the UK in peril. In response, ministers pointed to 'decades of underinvestment' by previous governments and announced plans for the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War. The Ministry of Defence aims to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035. However, defence analysts argue that the UK's military has suffered from a 'lethal combination' of Treasury hostility to defence spending and the Ministry of Defence prioritising investment in ships and aircraft over the army. The British army has shrunk significantly since 1991, from 155,000 troops to 75,000 troops, with a reduction in armoured and infantry brigades. Defence experts, such as Ben Barry of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, blame this decline on inadequate resource allocation. Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, notes that the UK has a decent spread of reasonably modern capabilities but faces several problems, including a lack of mass and reliance on allies. 'We've cut a lot of corners and in many cases we rely on our allies. That means we're particularly reliant on the US and others in certain areas and it can come back to bite,' Savill added. Britain's commitment to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027 is more ambitious than France's, but experts suggest that the UK can learn from France's approach. The UK's plans have been influenced by Poland's military transformation, which has seen defence spending rise to 4.8% of GDP, the highest among Nato countries.

Benin’s presidential contest is tilting decisively toward the incumbent government’s nominee, Romuald Wadagni, after his only challenger, Paul Hounkpe of the Cowry Forces for an Emerging Benin party, publicly acknowledged defeat on national television. Hounkpe’s concession, aired on Monday, included a call for “republican congratulations” and a reminder that democratic health depends on mutual respect across partisan lines, as reported by AFP. Currently serving as foreign minister, Wadagni is the designated successor of President Patrice Talon, who is stepping down after two consecutive five‑year terms. The election follows a turbulent period marked by a foiled coup in late 2025, which was suppressed with the aid of Nigerian forces. Out of an electorate of nearly 8 million eligible voters, early voting proceeded at a modest pace, according to Al Jazeera correspondent Ahmed Idris reporting from Cotonou. Hounkpe’s campaign highlighted that despite a robust 7.5% GDP growth in 2024, the benefits have not sufficiently improved living standards, pointing to persistent poverty rates exceeding 30% and limited trickle‑down of economic gains. In contrast, Wadagni pledged to focus on essential services such as water access, expanded social security, and improved healthcare, positioning himself as a continuity candidate for the ruling coalition. The finance minister, who previously led the polls, was widely expected to prevail after the main opposition party, the Democrats, failed to nominate a candidate and declined to endorse Hounkpe. The Democrats also fell short of the 20% threshold needed for parliamentary representation in the January 2026 elections, securing only about 16% of the vote. Security concerns loom large for the incoming administration. The northern region continues to grapple with insurgent activity from the al‑Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al‑Islam wal‑Muslimin (JNIM), which has inflicted heavy casualties on the military, including an attack last year that killed 54 soldiers and another incident in March that claimed 15 lives. These challenges are compounded by broader instability across the Sahel, where a succession of coups in neighboring states such as Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali has heightened regional volatility. While Wadagni’s ascent promises policy continuity, the new president will need to address both the security vacuum in the north and the socioeconomic gap that leaves a third of Benin’s population in poverty despite recent economic growth.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released an analysis estimating that the United States faces a shortage of roughly 10 million homes. The report argues that easing regulatory burdens could unlock a construction surge, stabilise home prices, expand home‑ownership and accelerate overall economic growth. President Donald Trump signed two executive orders in March directing federal agencies to reduce housing‑regulation costs and to facilitate mortgage lending by smaller banks. Yet, critics note that the administration has been slow to prioritize high housing costs amid falling approval ratings tied to tariffs, the US‑Israel conflict with Iran, and unmet inflation‑reduction promises. Mortgage rates have risen from just under 6 % to 6.37 % for a 30‑year loan, further inflating the cost of home purchase. Trump has publicly defended higher home prices to protect existing owners, stating, “I don’t want to drive housing prices down… I want to drive housing prices up for people that own their homes.” The housing chapter of the annual Economic Report of the President, obtained by the Associated Press, outlines a blueprint showing how increased homebuilding could benefit the middle class and the broader economy, providing a potential political narrative for the president. According to the report, if homebuilding had continued at its pre‑2008 pace, the nation would have **10 million more houses** today. The 2008 crisis, driven by risky lending and a housing bubble, still casts a long shadow. Home prices have surged **82 % since 2000**, while median incomes have risen only **12 %**, a disparity previously softened by historically low mortgage rates. The post‑COVID inflation spike and higher rates have made affordability a top concern for voters under 40. Regulatory costs—dubbed the “bureaucrat tax”—are estimated to add **over $100,000 per new home** through updated building codes, compliance fees and zoning approvals. The report projects that trimming these costs could enable the construction of **up to 13.2 million homes**, potentially delivering an **average 1.3 percentage‑point boost to annual GDP** over the next decade and supporting **two million manufacturing and construction jobs**. One administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, suggested that federal funding to states could be tied to regulatory reductions, creating a financial incentive for local governments. The analysis also criticises the green‑energy housing standards introduced under former President Joe Biden, which mandate more efficient HVAC systems and water‑heater requirements. Citing a 2021 National Association of Home Builders study, the report claims these standards could add **up to $31,000** to a new home’s price, with a **payback period of up to 90 years** for homeowners via lower utility bills. While rolling back such standards might lower upfront costs, the report acknowledges potential long‑term utility‑bill increases for owners. Legal challenges further complicate the picture: a Texas federal judge recently sided with 15 Republican‑led states, deeming the Biden‑era standards for federally backed housing **unlawful**. Overall, the White House’s proposal positions regulatory reform as a lever to address the housing deficit, stimulate economic growth, and generate jobs, while navigating the political and environmental trade‑offs inherent in the debate.

Polls have closed in Benin, with Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni expected to emerge victorious in the presidential election. Wadagni received the endorsement of former President Patrice Talon, who is stepping down after two five-year terms.Nearly eight million voters were eligible to cast ballots on Sunday to choose a successor to Talon. Wadagni, 49, faces a crucial factor in voter turnout after a lackluster campaign affected by voter apathy.In Benin’s largest city, Cotonou, vote counting began late on Sunday afternoon, with provisional results expected on Tuesday. Wadagni is being challenged by Paul Hounkpe, an opposition figure whose campaign has needed help from majority lawmakers to gain parliamentary endorsements.Under Talon, Benin has experienced rapid growth, with gross domestic product (GDP) doubling during his decade in power and numerous infrastructure projects completed. However, a wealth gap remains, and the winner of the vote will also face challenges with insecurity, particularly in the north of the country.The north of Benin has increasingly experienced violence from armed fighters from the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate that has spilled over from the Sahel region.

Benin is set to choose a new head of state on Sunday, April 12, 2026, in an election that appears to favor the governing coalition’s nominee, finance minister Romuald Wadagni. The 49‑year‑old, a former Deloitte executive, has been hand‑picked by outgoing President Patrice Talon, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term after a decade in power. With roughly eight million eligible voters on the rolls, the contest requires a candidate to secure more than 50 % of the vote; otherwise a runoff would be scheduled for May 10. In practice, only two names appear on the ballot: Wadagni, representing the Progressive Union Renewal‑Republican Bloc alliance, and Paul Hounkpe, the 56‑year‑old former teacher and culture minister who runs under the Cowry Forces for an Emerging Benin (FCBE) banner. Wadagni’s campaign emphasizes continuity of Talon’s economic reforms. Under Talon, Benin’s budget tripled and the country posted its strongest GDP growth in over twenty years, with the International Monetary Fund estimating a 7 % expansion in 2025. Investment in trade, agriculture and the Cotonou port has driven this performance, though benefits remain uneven, especially in the poorer northern regions. Security concerns dominate the northern frontier, where al‑Qaeda and IS‑linked militias from the Sahel have intensified cross‑border raids. Recent attacks by the JNIM network killed 54 soldiers in 2025 and another 15 in early 2026. A failed coup attempt in December 2025, allegedly motivated by neglect of troops in the north, left about 100 suspects awaiting trial. Wadagni has pledged to create municipal police forces to protect border towns, while Hounkpe warns that the current administration has sidelined citizens despite macro‑economic gains. Beyond economics and security, the election raises questions about Benin’s democratic health. Talon’s government has been criticized for suppressing protests, extending presidential terms from five to seven years, and enabling the president to appoint Senate members—moves that have effectively eliminated opposition representation. In the January parliamentary vote, Talon’s allies captured all 109 seats, and the main opposition party, the Democrats, failed to field a presidential candidate. Observers note that voter turnout will be a key barometer of public sentiment. The last presidential election saw only about 50 % participation. Al Jazeera reporter Ahmed Idris described the atmosphere at a governing‑party rally in Cotonou as “lively,” but cautioned that it may not reflect the broader mood in a nation where democratic space appears to be shrinking. Should Wadagni win, he pledges to build on a decade of “economic transformation,” expanding development hubs and healthcare access while maintaining fiscal discipline. Hounkpe, positioned as a moderate alternative, promises to lower basic commodity prices and secure the release of political prisoners detained under Talon’s rule. The outcome will shape Benin’s trajectory at a critical juncture: balancing sustained economic growth, confronting escalating security threats from the Sahel, and navigating the tension between authoritarian tendencies and the country’s reputation as one of West Africa’s more stable democracies.

The Conservative Party has announced plans to reinstate the two-child benefit cap in order to fund a substantial increase in defence spending. According to Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader, this move would support the largest peacetime programme of rearmament in the UK's history. The party aims to recruit 6,000 full-time soldiers and 14,000 reservists, marking the largest net increase in British troops since the Second World War.Badenoch criticised the current government's lack of readiness for war, citing recent global events. She emphasised the need for the UK to reassert itself as a global power and committed to increasing defence spending. The Tories claim they can raise £20bn towards this venture by reinstating the two-child benefit cap and reallocating funds earmarked for net zero projects.The announcement comes amid tensions with the US over the UK's involvement in the conflict with Iran. Badenoch expressed concern over Donald Trump's public criticism of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, highlighting the importance of maintaining western bonds in the face of global threats.The Labour government has pledged to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2027, increasing to 3% in the next parliament. However, they are under pressure to publish a defence spending plan, with reports of tensions between the Ministry of Defence and the Treasury.