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Iraq is facing a balancing act as the US-Israeli war on Iran exposes deep divisions within the country. The conflict has highlighted the divisions between those who view the attacks on Iran as a means to end Tehran's longstanding influence over Iraqi politics and those who are loyal to the Islamic republic. The war has struck Iraq during a precarious power vacuum, following the stepping aside of caretaker leader Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, whose coalition won the largest share of seats in November's parliamentary elections. This power vacuum has exacerbated tensions, with factions from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella body of Iran-backed armed groups, vowing to drag the US into a long war of attrition. The group has claimed responsibility for numerous drone and missile attacks on targets in Iraq and neighboring countries, including the US base in Erbil and the city's international airport. In response, unclaimed airstrikes attributed to US and Israeli forces have hit positions across the country, killing several commanders and fighters. Iraqi leaders are attempting to maintain a balancing act, denouncing the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei while rejecting attempts by Tehran to draw Iraq into the conflict. However, this balancing act is complicated by the fact that pro-Iran groups are also members of the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU), a sprawling institution that operates with its own agenda. The conflict has significant implications for Iraq's stability and economy, with a looming financial disaster hanging over the country due to the crisis over the strait of Hormuz and the loss of oil revenue. The US pressure and threat of sanctions have forced some members of the pro-Iran Shia alliance in Iraq's parliament to distance themselves from more militant factions. The killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has also had a profound impact on the Iraqi resistance factions, which have struggled to respond effectively to the recent war. The insider close to the pro-Iran factions noted that the killing of Nasrallah has affected the Iraqi resistance factions more than the killing of Khamenei, as Nasrallah had a direct appeal to many commanders.

Recent air strikes on Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) have resulted in the deaths of three PMF fighters and two Iraqi police officers. The attacks, which occurred near northern Iraq's Kirkuk Airport, also left two fighters wounded and six Iraqi soldiers injured.An Iraqi security source revealed that the double-bombing was part of the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran, which has been spilling over into Iraq's eastern border. The PMF, a coalition now integrated into the regular Iraqi army, accused the US and Israel of a 'treacherous Zionist-American' attack.In a separate incident, Reuters reported that two members of the Iraqi police were killed in an air strike targeting the PMF in Mosul, approximately 105 miles northwest of Kirkuk. This development has contributed to the escalating tensions in the region.Al Jazeera's Nicolas Haque reported from Baghdad that Iraq is becoming an 'expanding battleground' in the crisis. The conflict began on February 28 with US-Israeli strikes on Iran and now threatens to engulf the region in a protracted conflict.The PMF, formed in 2014 to fight ISIL (ISIS), has been targeted by pro-Iran armed groups within the coalition. These groups have claimed responsibility for attacks on US interests in Iraq and beyond.Haque noted that the PMF takes its orders from Baghdad, but some factions are loyal to Tehran. This complex dynamic makes it challenging for Baghdad to manage the different factions effectively.Iraq finds itself 'on a tightrope' between the US and Iran, said Haque, due to its economic and security ties with both countries. The government must balance its relationships with its biggest neighbor, Iran, and the United States.In related incidents, two drones targeted an airbase serving as a hub for US and coalition forces near Erbil airport in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region. The US C-RAM air defence system successfully intercepted the drones.French President Emmanuel Macron described the increased attacks in Iraq as a 'worrying development' after speaking to Nechirvan Barzani, president of the Kurdish region.

Gulf countries are increasingly concerned about the threat posed by Iran-backed militias and proxy armed groups in the region. These groups, which include Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, have been used by Iran as a pillar of its foreign and security policy for decades.In a joint statement, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan condemned Iranian attacks on their soil, both as strikes carried out directly from Iran and “through their proxies and armed factions they support in the region”. The statement also called on the Iraqi government to take measures to halt attacks launched by factions, militias, and armed groups from Iraqi territory.Kuwait recently foiled a plot to kill state leaders and arrested six suspects believed to be associated with Hezbollah. The Houthis also confirmed they had launched a missile strike on Israel, the first time the proxy group have admitted involvement in the war in the Middle East.The threat of these groups is seen as particularly worrying for countries such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, which have a history of Iran-backed militia carrying out violent attacks. Analysts warn that the presence and danger of Iranian proxy groups in the Gulf had not reached levels anything close to those during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, but the threat remains greater the longer the conflict with Iran drags on.Bilal Saab, a senior managing director of the Trends US thinktank, said: “If this war escalates, the worst-case scenario for the Gulf countries is Iran activating their sleeper cells and these Shia militia movements in the region. We could see a whole lot more if things really escalate.”

The conflict in the region has intensified, with Iraq becoming a two-way battlefield between armed factions and the United States during its war with Iran. The US carried out strikes against the Shia paramilitary umbrella group, also known locally as Hashed al-Shaabi, late on Sunday after attacks on a US diplomatic and logistics centre at Baghdad International Airport.The attack was carried out after Iraqi security officials said four explosions were heard near Camp Victory, a US logistics centre at the capital’s main airport. No casualties were reported as the positions were deserted.The PMF is part of Iraq’s regular armed forces and includes some pro-Iranian groups. Pro-Iran armed groups have claimed responsibility for attacks on US interests in Iraq and across the region while strikes have also targeted these groups.Economic worries also are weighing heavily after Iraq’s Ministry of Oil last week announced a case of force majeure on all oilfields developed by foreign oil companies, citing disruptions to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which have halted most of the country’s crude exports.“Iraq relies on that revenue,” said Nicolas Haque, a reporter from Iraq’s capital. “That’s 90 percent of its revenues, so that’s going to have an impact on people.”US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to attack Iran’s power plants if freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz was not fully restored in 48 hours. On Monday, hours before his deadline was to expire, Trump ⁠ordered the US ⁠military to postpone ⁠strikes ⁠against the power plants for five days.