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The war in Iran has sent shockwaves through the UK economy, causing gilt yields to surge to their highest levels since the 2008 global financial crisis. This increase in borrowing costs has significant implications for Chancellor Rachel Reeves' fiscal policy, potentially eroding the £23bn in 'headroom' she had built up against her fiscal rules.Reeves had hoped that this cushion would allow her to focus on tackling inflation and stimulating growth, but with oil prices up 50% since the onset of the war, investors are now expecting higher inflation and interest rates. As a result, the government's cost of borrowing is set to rise, impacting its ability to fund public spending.The yield on 10-year gilts has jumped to nearly 5%, pushing up the cost of borrowing and forcing Reeves to reconsider her spending plans. This development has also raised concerns about the UK's economic fragility and the potential for a Labour leadership contest to be triggered after the May local elections.Economists warn that the chancellor has probably already lost a third to half of her headroom due to the combination of higher inflation, weaker employment, and surging gilt yields. The situation is further complicated by the UK's high debt levels and reliance on global markets, leaving little room for maneuver for any future government.The implications of this crisis extend beyond Reeves, raising questions about the economic pitch of any potential steward of the economy, whether from Labour or other parties. As Angela Rayner considers John Healey as a potential chancellor, the need for a carefully plotted economic policy that balances growth and fiscal responsibility has become increasingly urgent.

The US Treasury Department has taken a strong stance against the Financial Times (FT), formally requesting a retraction of a report that suggested Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had discussed increasing oversight of the Federal Reserve in a manner similar to the Bank of England's model. In a detailed email to senior editors at the FT and its parent company, Nikkei Inc., Treasury officials disputed multiple claims in the story, criticizing the headline as misrepresenting the underlying reporting. The FT had reported on March 26 that Bessent had discussed adopting practices similar to the Bank of England, including regular communication between the Fed governor and the US Treasury Secretary over inflation targets. Treasury officials denied that Bessent had endorsed such views or discussed adopting similar practices in Washington. They also took issue with the headline, which stated that Bessent had 'praised' the Bank of England model for tighter oversight, a claim that did not appear in the text of the story. “The Secretary has never made any of the above statements in public or private,” Elliott Hulse, the acting assistant secretary for public affairs, wrote in the email. “At no time has the secretary ‘discussed tightening the US Treasury’s oversight of the Federal Reserve by adopting elements of the Bank of England’s model in a step that would shake up the central bank’s relationship with government.’” The FT responded by stating they were confident in the accuracy of their story, including US Treasury responses in the article. This incident highlights the sensitivity surrounding the Federal Reserve's political independence, especially following Donald Trump's repeated threats to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not reducing borrowing costs as requested. Investors prioritize the Fed's independence in making policy decisions, as political pressure could lead to rapid inflation and subsequent sharp rate increases. The Treasury's actions mark an effort to discredit the FT report, with Bessent himself denying the claims on social media.

The UK government's borrowing costs have risen above 5% amid an intensifying global bond market sell-off fueled by the Iran war. The yield – or interest rate – on 10-year debt hit its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, rising 13 basis points to 5.081%, as investors acted on concerns about the economic fallout from the conflict.Borrowing costs also rose for the US and eurozone governments, underscoring growing turbulence in the global financial system after Donald Trump's extension of a deadline for a peace deal failed to soothe jittery investors. Financial markets worldwide slumped on Friday, extending falls seen since the outbreak of the war, with losses in London and across major US and EU trading hubs. The price of Brent crude remained above $110 a barrel.Kathleen Brooks, the research director for the UK at the financial trading platform XTB, said: “Markets feel more panicky this week, and Friday’s price action suggests that investors are losing faith in Donald Trump’s ability to end this war and reach a deal with the Iranians.”Economists have warned that the Bank of England could be forced to take a tough approach to tackling inflation after losing some of its credibility by underestimating the leap in inflationary pressures in 2022. The increase in borrowing costs will add to the challenges facing Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, amid pressure on Labour to provide a package of financial support for households already reeling from a cost of living crisis.