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An overwhelming majority of Israelis oppose the US-Iran ceasefire deal announced last week, with 61% of respondents in a recent poll expressing their disapproval. The poll, conducted by the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), also found that 73% of respondents expect fighting with Iran to resume within the next year.The ceasefire deal, which was negotiated without Israel's direct involvement, has been met with skepticism by many Israelis who feel that it does not address the root causes of the conflict with Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had promised a final showdown with Iran, but the deal has left the Iranian government still standing.The Israeli public's disappointment with the ceasefire deal is reflected in the 69% of respondents who support continued military action in Lebanon, despite talks between the Lebanese and Israeli governments. Israel has continued to attack Lebanon, killing over 300 people in the past week.Analysts say that Netanyahu's problem is that he had oversold the war's objectives, promising regime collapse and the destruction of Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles. However, these goals were unrealistic, and the ceasefire deal has exposed the gap between Netanyahu's rhetoric and the reality on the ground.The opposition to the ceasefire deal is not limited to Netanyahu's critics, with opposition leaders like Yair Lapid also expressing their disappointment. Lapid has accused Netanyahu of turning Israel into a protectorate state that receives instructions from the US on matters of national security.Despite the backlash, Netanyahu has given public support to the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, claiming that Israel and the US are in constant coordination. However, analysts say that Israel is unlikely to break with the US while it is leading negotiations with Iran.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecast downward to 3.1 percent this year, citing the impact of rising tensions between the United States and Iran on energy and food costs worldwide.The downgrade comes as Iran has retaliated against US and Israeli actions by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil and gas supplies, and attacking energy infrastructure in the region. This has driven up oil prices and squeezed oil and gas supplies, affecting countries reliant on these imports.The IMF's new forecast represents a slowdown from its earlier projection of 3.3 percent growth, made before the escalation of tensions. It also marks a decline from 3.4 percent growth in the previous year. The fund warns that some regions and countries will be hit harder than others.Iran's economic outlook saw one of the largest country-level revisions, with a forecast contraction of 6.1 percent in 2026, down from an initial small growth forecast. The IMF also cut GDP growth forecasts for Saudi Arabia from 4.5 percent to 3.1 percent.The IMF's Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that the current hostilities in the Middle East pose significant policy trade-offs, including fighting inflation and preserving growth. The fund anticipates higher global inflation at 4.4 percent, up 0.6 percentage points from its January forecast.Experts warn that continued strains in the Strait of Hormuz could worsen inflationary pressures. For instance, a sustained $60 increase in gas prices above the average price could put the US firmly in recession territory.Oil prices have dropped on hopes of resumed talks between Iran and the US, with Brent crude futures falling to $95.02 per barrel and West Texas intermediate crude dropping to $91.84. However, prices remain much higher than before the Iran war.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is embarking on a diplomatic mission to Saudi Arabia and Turkey this week, as his efforts to facilitate a second round of peace talks between the United States and Iran appear to be gaining traction.Sharif's bid to moderate talks comes during a fragile two-week ceasefire that has halted US and Israeli strikes on Iran. President Asif Ali Zardari has urged Sharif and other officials to remain engaged with the US, Iran, and other key powers to sustain the peace process.Reports of backchannel negotiations to arrange new peace talks surfaced on Monday, followed by comments from US President Donald Trump and the United Nations on Tuesday, suggesting there is support for Sharif's push. Trump indicated that talks could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, praising Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir as 'doing a great job.'The Associated Press reported on Tuesday that a diplomat from one of the mediating countries said Tehran and Washington had agreed to more talks, although the location, timing, and composition of the delegations had not been decided. Islamabad and Geneva are being considered as potential host cities.UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who met with the deputy prime minister of Pakistan on Tuesday, said it was 'highly probable' that ceasefire talks would restart. He emphasized the need for continued negotiations and a persistent ceasefire.Any return to the negotiating table would likely test the diplomatic skills of Sharif and other mediators. During the fragile two-week ceasefire, the US military has mounted a naval blockade of Iran's ports and coastal areas in response to Iran's throttling of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused global oil prices to skyrocket.

The United States is brokering a historic round of direct, high‑level talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, D.C., marking the first bilateral engagement between the two countries since 1993. Lebanese officials aim to secure a ceasefire, whereas Israel’s primary objective is the disarmament of the Iran‑backed Hezbollah militia. Hezbollah’s leadership has publicly dismissed the negotiations as a "futile" ploy, with Secretary‑General Qassem Naim urging the Lebanese government to withdraw from the talks. The group argues that negotiating under fire amounts to a surrender and insists that any disarmament can only occur after a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. The talks are scheduled for Tuesday at the U.S. Department of State headquarters, beginning at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (15:00 GMT). Key participants include Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Nada Hamadeh, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa, and State Department Counselor Michael Needham, all acting as facilitators. The U.S. frames the meeting as a necessary response to “Hezbollah’s reckless actions,” emphasizing that "Israel is at war with Hezbollah, not Lebanon, so there is no reason the two neighbours should not be talking," a senior State Department official said. Escalating violence has set a grim backdrop: Israeli strikes on Lebanon have killed at least 2,080 people, including 165 children and 87 medical workers, and displaced more than 1.2 million residents. Overall, the conflict has claimed over 3,768 Lebanese lives since October 2023. Israel has refused to discuss a ceasefire, insisting instead on a plan to dismantle Hezbollah’s arsenal. According to Israeli media, the proposal would divide southern Lebanon into three security zones: Zone 1 (0‑8 km from the border) under a long‑term Israeli military presence; Zone 2 (up to the Litani River) where Israeli forces would gradually hand control to the Lebanese army; and Zone 3 (north of the Litani) to be managed solely by the Lebanese army for disarmament purposes. Israeli officials have also floated reinstating a “buffer zone” in the south, a policy abandoned decades ago. Beirut, represented by Culture Minister Ghassan Salame, describes the Washington meeting as a preliminary step to pause hostilities and reassert state authority, while acknowledging Lebanon’s limited leverage. The Lebanese government has previously announced plans to disarm Hezbollah under U.S. pressure, a move Hezbollah denounced as a surrender to Israel and the United States. The broader diplomatic context includes a recent U.S.–Iran ceasefire agreement that nominally covers Lebanon, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected its terms and pushed for direct talks, receiving backing from U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. European leaders, however, have urged that Lebanon be fully incorporated into any ceasefire framework. Hezbollah’s objections are multifaceted: negotiating while under bombardment, lack of national consensus, the demand to disarm its weapons—deemed a “Lebanese internal matter”—and accusations of governmental betrayal. The group has unequivocally stated it will not honor any agreement reached in Washington. Analysts caution that an immediate ceasefire remains unlikely. A U.S. official noted Israel’s focus on disarmament and skepticism about Beirut’s capacity to deliver. Meanwhile, the battle for the strategic southern town of Bint Jbeil is seen as a potential barometer for the talks: if Israeli forces capture the town, they may harden their demands; if Hezbollah holds, it could bolster Lebanon’s negotiating position. For now, Hezbollah remains defiant, with Qassem Naim declaring, "We will not rest, stop or surrender; the battlefield will speak for itself."

The pursuit of a 'Greater Israel' has been a longstanding ambition for some factions within Israel, but Iran's persistent opposition continues to pose a significant challenge to its realization. The concept of a 'Greater Israel' generally refers to the expansion of Israeli territory to include areas that are currently part of neighboring countries, a notion that has been a focal point of geopolitical tensions in the region. Iran's stance on this issue is rooted in its historical and ideological opposition to Israel, viewing it as a strategic threat in the region. Iran's active engagement in supporting Palestinian groups and its vocal criticism of Israeli policies have been key aspects of its approach to countering Israeli influence and expansion plans. The geopolitical dynamics involving Iran and Israel are complex, with implications extending beyond bilateral relations to impact the broader Middle Eastern landscape. The 'Greater Israel' project, if pursued, could potentially redraw the regional map, leading to far-reaching consequences for peace and stability in the area. Despite these ambitions, Iran's resistance underscores the challenges Israel faces in achieving its territorial goals. The situation remains a critical point of tension, with international implications that could affect not only the Middle East but also global geopolitics.

In a landmark development, the Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors have commenced direct talks in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the United States. The meetings, held for the first time in recent history, aim to open channels of communication that have long been absent between the two neighboring states. U.S. officials facilitated the dialogue, emphasizing the importance of regional stability and the potential for de‑escalation of longstanding tensions. While specific agenda items were not disclosed, observers note that the talks could lay groundwork for future confidence‑building measures. The initiation of these talks is being viewed as a significant diplomatic shift in Middle Eastern relations, offering a rare opportunity for direct engagement without intermediary pressure. Analysts caution that progress will depend on sustained political will from both Beirut and Jerusalem, as well as continued support from Washington. Stakeholders across the region are monitoring the discussions closely, recognizing that any forward movement could influence broader geopolitical dynamics, trade prospects, and security arrangements in the Levant.

A dramatic video has surfaced showing a drone exploding in northern Israel. The footage, which has garnered significant attention, underscores the persistent security threats in the region.The incident, while alarming, has not been explicitly linked to any specific group or entity. Israel has faced numerous drone attacks in the past, often attributed to militant groups operating in neighboring countries.The Israeli military and government have heightened security measures in response to these threats, including bolstering air defense systems and conducting targeted strikes against perceived threats.This latest incident serves as a stark reminder of the fragile security situation in northern Israel and the broader Middle East region.

On the first day of the US blockade on Iranian ports, at least three vessels, including two US-sanctioned tankers, successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf. According to shipping data, these vessels were not bound for Iranian ports, thus avoiding the impact of the blockade.A Panama-flagged medium-range tanker, Peace Gulf, was headed to Hamriyah port in the United Arab Emirates. Data from LSEG and Kpler showed that the vessel typically transports Iranian naphtha, a petrochemical feedstock, to other non-Iranian ports in the Middle East for export to Asia.Two US-sanctioned tankers, Murlikishan and Rich Starry, also navigated through the strait. Murlikishan, a handy tanker, was set to load fuel oil in Iraq on Thursday. The vessel, previously known as MKA, has a history of transporting Russian and Iranian oil. Rich Starry, a medium-range tanker carrying about 250,000 barrels of methanol, was the first sanctioned tanker to exit the Gulf since the blockade began. The tanker and its owner, Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co Ltd, were sanctioned by the US for dealing with Iran.The US blockade was announced by President Donald Trump on Sunday, following the collapse of peace talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad. The blockade aims to restrict Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy shipments. Iran had previously halted traffic through the strait in response to US-Israeli attacks, causing a spike in global gas and petrol prices.The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized the US move, calling it 'dangerous and irresponsible' and warning that it would escalate tensions and undermine the fragile ceasefire agreement. China, which imports over half of its oil from the Middle East, especially Iran, expressed concerns about the impact on oil supplies.Despite the blockade, there are still prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough. Trump indicated that Iran still has an opportunity to strike a deal, and a Pakistani official stated that the country is willing to host peace talks.

Italy has suspended the automatic renewal of its defence agreement with Israel, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Tuesday in Verona. The pact, originally approved in 2006 and set to renew every five years, encompasses joint development of military equipment, technology research, training of personnel and information‑technology cooperation. Meloni explained that the decision reflects “the current situation,” referring to a recent episode in which Israeli forces allegedly fired warning shots at an Italian peacekeeping convoy in Lebanon, damaging a vehicle but causing no injuries. In response, Italy summoned the Israeli ambassador to protest the incident, while Israel later called Italy’s ambassador after Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, also deputy prime minister, condemned the “unacceptable attacks” on Lebanese civilians. Tajani was in Beirut for talks with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi, and posted on X that he was conveying Italy’s solidarity with Lebanon. Until now, Meloni’s right‑wing government has been one of Israel’s closest allies in Europe. The suspension marks a notable shift in the relationship, although the Israeli government has not issued an immediate reaction. The defence accord, which automatically renews every five years, includes cooperation across defence industries, education and training of military personnel, research and development, and information‑technology initiatives.