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The Diplomatic Opening in BeijingOne day into US President Donald Trump's visit to China for trade talks, both he and Chinese President Xi Jinping have exchanged toasts at a state banquet at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, and hailed their relationship as the world's most "consequential". On Thursday, following a visit to the Temple of Heaven, a 600-year-old landmark in the Chinese capital, Xi spoke of a "shared US-China future", while also warning that failure to handle this bond would create a "very dangerous situation"."We must make it work and never mess it up," he said.The Personal Diplomacy Between LeadersThe US president described his Chinese counterpart as "my friend" in his opening remarks at the state banquet that Xi hosted for the American leader. "We are going to have a fantastic future together. I have such respect for China, for the job you've done. You are a great leader," he told Xi.Trump also invited Xi and First Lady Peng Liyuan to pay a return visit to the White House on September 24. For his part, the Chinese president said he was "very happy" to meet Trump in Beijing at a time of "historic turbulence" when "the world stands at a new crossroads".Xi posed a series of questions to the US president: "Can we join hands to address global challenges and inject greater stability into the world? Can we uphold the wellbeing of our respective peoples and the shared future of humanity, working together to create a bright future for our bilateral relationship?"China's reception underscored how highly Xi regards this visit. Trump was welcomed at the Great Hall of the People, the seat of power in China, "the equivalent of the White House and all other important centres of power combined". Additionally, Vice President Han Zheng greeted Trump at the airport when he landed in Beijing on Wednesday, making him the highest-ranking Chinese official to ever welcome a US president.Strategic Framework for Bilateral RelationsXi and Trump agreed to frame their relationship as "constructive, strategic and stable" in a new positioning that is intended to guide US-China ties for the next three years and beyond, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement about talks between the two.Trump said the relationship between the two countries went back to the founding of the US, noting that the early American traders who visited China were described, by the Chinese, as "the new people". Today, he said, the two countries' bilateral ties were among "the most consequential" in the world.The Chinese president said the two countries should become partners, rather than rivals, adding that "mutual respect is key to stable China-US ties". "I have always believed that the common interests between China and the US outweigh the differences," Xi said. "Let 2026 be a historic and landmark year for Sino-US relations to carry on the past and open up the future."Trade and Economic NegotiationsTrump and Xi discussed trade, with Xi saying that China's door of opportunity will open wider. What this means is not explicitly clear yet, but Trump will be hoping it includes a Chinese pledge to buy US soya beans, beef and aircraft. Officials in the Trump administration also hope to move towards setting up a Board of Trade with China to manage commercial disputes between the two countries.Xi also met with US business leaders who have accompanied Trump on this trip on Thursday. The US and China entered a tariff threat standoff last year, with each side imposing retaliatory tariffs on each other's exports. China also restricted exports of some rare-earth metals, which are crucial for technology manufacturing, in April. Later in the year, it announced plans to restrict several others. Those later plans are on pause since a truce was agreed between the two presidents in October last year on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea.In return for China's agreement to pause restrictions on rare-earth metal exports, Trump dropped a threat of 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods.The Taiwan ChallengeThe Taiwanese government maintains that the self-governing island of 23 million people is a sovereign state. During the meeting on Thursday, Xi reportedly warned Trump that the issue of Taiwan – which China regards as its own territory – could lead to conflict between Washington and Beijing if it is not handled carefully.However, Taiwan was not mentioned in a joint statement following the meeting, and Trump notably ignored a question from reporters about his stance on Taiwan. This is a tricky issue for the US. While the US government officially acknowledges that China views Taiwan as part of its territory, it does not explicitly state whether or not it agrees with that stance.The US formally severed official diplomatic ties with Taiwan – also known as the Republic of China – decades ago, but remains committed under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to supporting the defence of the self-governing democracy. That law has enabled Washington to supply Taiwan with billions of dollars' worth of weapons and to deepen cooperation in areas such as military training and intelligence sharing, moves Beijing regards as meddling in its internal affairs.Xi has told Trump that the "Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations", Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning posted on X on Thursday. "If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy," she wrote.Taiwan's Foreign Ministry released a statement saying that China is "currently the sole risk to regional peace and stability", after Xi warned Trump. "Beijing has no right to make any claims on behalf of Taiwan internationally," the statement added.Global Security CooperationThe US-Israel war on Iran, which entered its 76th day on Thursday, also came up in the meeting between Trump and Xi. In their joint statement, Trump and Xi agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and Iran should never have nuclear weapons.US officials have previously said that they might need China's help in convincing Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. But analysts say Beijing will want concessions from the US, likely regarding Taiwan, in exchange for any aid in resolving the crisis.Future Outlook for US-China RelationsTrump and Xi may meet again on at least two other occasions this year – the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' meeting, in Shenzhen, China, in November; and the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Miami, Florida in the US in December. It would be unprecedented for the US president to travel to China twice in one year.The tone set during these initial talks suggests both sides recognize the importance of managing their complex relationship carefully. Xi's warning about not "messing it up" indicates the high stakes involved, while Trump's personal approach and emphasis on friendship suggests he may be seeking a personal channel for diplomacy alongside official channels.As both nations navigate differences on trade, Taiwan, and global security issues, the framework they've established as "constructive, strategic and stable" will be tested in the coming months. The frequency of their planned meetings suggests both sides understand the need for constant communication to prevent misunderstandings that could escalate into conflict.

The Earthwork Experience Delcy Morelos' earthworks are a sensory journey, inviting visitors to immerse themselves in the natural world. Her use of soil, sourced from various locations, creates a unique and often nostalgic experience. Morelos' work challenges our perception of soil as merely dirt, instead positioning it as a vital component of our existence. The Womb Space: A Sensory Phenomenon The Womb Space, Morelos' previous installation in Mexico City, was a cavernous earthwork that drew over 60,000 visitors. The structure's terraced walls of reddish soil and cascading plant matter created a sense of being inside a mountain. Visitors were struck by the silence, peace, and primal connection to the earth. Origo: A New Installation in London Morelos' latest earthwork, Origo, is a 24-metre-wide outdoor pavilion in London's Barbican. The installation features cave-like passages and a central patio for meditation and relaxation. Morelos' use of organic materials and egg-like form creates a dialogue with the Barbican's angular, concrete architecture. The Power of Soil Morelos' work is rooted in the Andean cosmovision, which perceives mountains, seas, and other natural elements as sentient beings. Her elevation of soil challenges the dominant Western worldview, which positions humans at the pinnacle of existence. By promoting a horizontal relationship with the earth, Morelos encourages a sense of care and listening. A Mission to Reconnect Morelos' earthworks are a mission to reconnect people with the natural world. Her installations dismantle the belief that soil is mere dirt, instead revealing its vital role in sustaining life. As Morelos says, 'I work with earth so you realise you're made of earth too. There's no separation. If you hurt her, you hurt me, you hurt yourself.'

The Lead Kevin Morby's eighth album "Little Wide Open" presents a contemplative journey through the complexities of life, love, and identity, rooted in his midwestern upbringing. The album showcases Morby's signature Americana style while embracing vulnerability and uncertainty in both lyrics and production. The Musical Landscape of "Little Wide Open" The album opens with "Badlands," a track that juxtaposes the harsh imagery of the American midwest with surprisingly laid-back musical elements. Morby's conversational vocals and gentle guitar riffs create a contrast with lyrics that reference both "the big disaster we call home" and the possibility that "heaven is a place on Earth beneath the golden sky." This duality sets the tone for an album that embraces ambiguity and complexity. Musically, Morby primarily works in introspection and understatement, building on his foundation of Americana influenced by Bob Dylan, Lou Reed, Tom Petty, and Leonard Cohen. While his previous work has touched on soul and jazz elements, "Little Wide Open" returns to his core sound with subtle pleasures rather than flashy moments. Tracks like the title track and "Natural Disaster" both exceed seven minutes, allowing songs to gradually unfold and inviting listeners to sit with the music. The Collaborative Production The genesis of "Little Wide Open" offers insight into Morby's respected position in the music industry. The National's Aaron Dessner, whose production credits include work with Taylor Swift and Noah Kahan, approached Morby to collaborate on the album. Dessner has shared Morby's music "with everyone I've ever worked with," indicating high regard for the artist's craft. The album features an impressive supporting cast, including Justin Vernon of Bon Iver imitating a tornado siren with his voice and alt-country star Lucinda Williams delivering a monologue on "Natural Disaster." Additional contributors come from Muna, Sylvan Esso, Florence + the Machine, and Perfume Genius, creating a rich tapestry of sounds that reinforces Morby's Americana foundation. Themes of Vulnerability and Transition Morby has described "Little Wide Open" as his "most personal and vulnerable album," created as he approaches fatherhood with his partner Katie Crutchfield of Waxahatchee. The album captures the doubts and uncertainties that accompany this life transition, as evidenced in "Javelin" where he questions, "Am I a has-been? Am I a husband?" The album explores the push and pull of one's hometown, balancing comfort and nostalgia with feelings of not quite fitting in. Morby captures this tension in "Cowtown" with the line, "Where no one ever makes a sound except me on this guitar," a bluesy acoustic punctuating the austere sound. Similarly, "Natural Disaster" examines mood swings as either something to be managed through medication or meditation, or simply as natural occurrences like landslides that fuel his songwriting. The Art of Introspective Songwriting "Little Wide Open" demonstrates Morby's mastery of introspective songwriting that embraces uncertainty rather than providing definitive answers. The album creates a "welcome safe space for admitting you're not sure; that things are complicated," particularly valuable in a climate that tends to extremes. Key tracks showcase this approach: the lovely melancholy exhalation of the title track's chorus, the banjo-assisted closer "Field Guide for the Butterflies" that gradually builds from fragility to something tougher, and the beautiful piano and clarinet motif running through "Junebug." Even the more climactic moments, like the maelstrom of noisy guitar in "100,000," serve the album's overall theme of emotional complexity. Legacy and Future Directions While Morby has never achieved massive commercial success or written a breakout crossover hit, "Little Wide Open" reinforces his status as a respected artist within the indie and Americana scenes. The album's critical reception and high-profile collaborators suggest that Morby's thoughtful, introspective approach continues to resonate with both musicians and listeners. As Morby navigates fatherhood and continues to explore life's complexities through his music, "Little Wide Open" stands as a testament to his growth as an artist unafraid to embrace vulnerability and uncertainty. The album's blend of midwestern storytelling, musical craftsmanship, and emotional honesty positions Morby as a distinctive voice in contemporary Americana.

Executive Overview: Trump’s China Visit with Top US CEOsPresident Donald Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday, flanked by a delegation of more than a dozen senior US executives. The group was presented to President Xi Jinping as “distinguished representatives from the American business community” who “respect and value China,” signaling a joint push to revive trade ties amid a lingering tariff dispute.Who Joined the Delegation and Their Business InterestsElon Musk – CEO of SpaceX, Tesla and owner of XTim Cook – outgoing CEO of AppleDavid Solomon – CEO of Goldman SachsLarry Fink – Chairman and CEO of BlackRockJane Fraser – Chairman and CEO of CitiStephen Schwarzman – CEO and co‑founder of BlackstoneKelly Ortberg – CEO and President of BoeingJensen Huang – CEO of Nvidia (late addition)Other firms represented included Meta, Cargill, Visa, Cisco, Qualcomm, Coherent, Micron, GE Aerospace, Illumina and Mastercard.Financial Figures Highlighting US‑China Trade TiesTariffs imposed during the trade war have exceeded 100 percent on many goods.Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory sold 292,876 vehicles in the first four months of 2026, a 26.7 percent year‑over‑year increase.Elon Musk is reportedly seeking to purchase $2.9 billion worth of solar‑panel equipment from Chinese suppliers.Approximately 80 percent of the iPhones sold in the US are manufactured in China.Nvidia controls roughly 95 percent of China’s advanced AI‑chip market, with an estimated Chinese AI market value of $50 billion this year.Strategic Implications for US Companies and Chinese PolicyThe delegation’s presence underscores the dependence of US tech firms on Chinese manufacturing, rare‑earth supplies and market demand. China’s recent restrictions on seven of twelve rare‑earth elements—and a paused second tranche of five—have heightened the urgency for firms like Tesla and Nvidia to secure stable supply lines. CEOs emphasized the need for “mutually beneficial cooperation” and broader market access, while Chinese officials promised “broader prospects” for American companies.What May Follow: Potential Deals and Political RamificationsTrump is seeking a renewed commitment from Beijing to open its economy, potentially easing tariffs and lifting sanctions on Chinese entities in exchange for US concessions. Analysts suggest the visit could yield concrete agreements on aircraft sales for Boeing, expanded chip sales for Nvidia, and further investment commitments that Trump can showcase to his domestic base ahead of the November mid‑term elections. The outcome will likely shape the trajectory of US‑China economic relations for the coming year.

The High‑Stakes Trump‑Xi Summit in BeijingDonald Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday for his first visit to China since 2017, meeting Xi Jinping on Thursday and Friday. Experts say the timing is critical: the United States is engaged in wars in the Middle East and Trump’s approval rating has slipped to the low‑30s, making a diplomatic win politically valuable.Trade War Fallout and Tariff NumbersSince Trump returned to office in 2025, the U.S. imposed tariffs up to 145 % on Chinese goods. Beijing responded with its own tariffs and halted rare‑earth exports, a sector where it holds a global monopoly.U.S. imports from China fell > 25 % in 2025.U.S. exports to China fell > 25 % in the same period.Without the trade war, U.S. exports to China would have been about $90 bn higher in 2025, according to Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute of International Economics (PIIE).Economic Impact: Shifts in US‑China Trade FlowsPIIE data show that while imports from China dropped to 9 % of total U.S. imports in 2025 (down 4 % YoY), imports from alternative sources rose 9 %, reflecting supply‑chain diversification to Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan.China’s trade surplus reached a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, offsetting reduced U.S. trade by expanding sales to other regions.Geopolitical Ramifications Amid Middle‑East ConflictsThe U.S. is simultaneously managing a war in Iran and rising energy prices; Brent crude rose to $104 per barrel, pushing U.S. gasoline to an average of $4.48 per gallon. Analysts argue that Trump’s need for a diplomatic success may drive concessions from China on issues such as the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian negotiations, and high‑technology chip access.Outlook: What the Summit Could Mean for 2026 Elections and Global TradeExperts, including Wei Liang of the Middlebury Institute, warn that the United States enters the November 2026 midterms with low public support (34 % approval). A tangible agreement—whether on rare‑earth supplies, agricultural purchases, or security cooperation—could provide Trump a narrative boost.Conversely, China faces little domestic pressure and may leverage its stronger position to extract long‑term concessions, potentially reshaping the U.S.–China trade architecture for years to come.

The Earliest Known Dental TreatmentNeanderthals used stone drills to treat cavities almost 60,000 years ago in what is the earliest known evidence of dental treatment. This groundbreaking discovery challenges previous assumptions about Neanderthal capabilities and reveals their sophisticated approach to medical care.The Discovery in SiberiaThe single molar, unearthed in a cave in southern Siberia's Chagyrskaya site, features a deep hole that appears to have been created using a sharp, thin stone tool during the lifetime of the tooth's owner. The tooth, dated to be 59,000 years old, was found alongside the remains of Neanderthals and thousands of stone tools that have been excavated at the site.Scientific Evidence of Ancient DentistryThe lower molar features a deep hole in the centre of the tooth extending into the pulp cavity. Microscopic X-ray imaging revealed changes in mineralization that indicated severe tooth decay. Researchers conducted experiments on three modern human teeth to demonstrate that a hole of the same shape and patterns of microscopic grooves could be created by manually rotating a narrow, elongated tool made from local jasper between two fingers. Penetrating the dentin using this approach took between 35 and 50 minutes of continuous work.Expert Analysis of the ProcedureDr. Kseniya Kolobova, an archaeologist at the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that this discovery "powerfully reinforces the now well-supported view that Neanderthals were not the brutish, inferior cousins of outdated stereotypes but a sophisticated human population with complex cognitive and cultural capacities."A dental professor who reviewed images of the tooth rated the Neanderthal's work as "a decent job." Justin Durham, a professor of orofacial pain at Newcastle University and the British Dental Association's chief scientific adviser, stated: "If I was marking this for a dental student, I wouldn't give it an A, but given the circumstances it's pretty impressive."Implications for Understanding Neanderthal CapabilitiesThis discovery represents the first time dental drilling has been demonstrated outside of Homo sapiens, and it is the oldest example of such behavior by more than 40,000 years. The smoothed edges of the drilled cavity and wear patterns inside it suggest the individual survived and continued to chew with the tooth for some time after the procedure.Dr. Lydia Zotkina, an archaeologist at the Russian Academy of Sciences and co-author, emphasized the remarkable strength of will required: "What struck me, and continues to strike me, is what an incredibly strong-willed person this Neanderthal must have been. They must have surely understood that although the pain of the procedure was greater than the pain of the inflammation, it was only temporary and had to be endured."This finding adds to previous evidence of Neanderthals caring for the sick and vulnerable group members, including an adult man with a withered arm and deformities in both legs, and a child with Down's syndrome who survived until at least the age of six. The latest discovery reveals not only compassion, but an impressive level of self-control by the patient and advanced technical skills by the practitioner.

The Lead: Russia's New Nuclear PowerhouseRussia has successfully test-launched the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, a weapon that President Vladimir Putin proudly declares as 'the most powerful missile in the world.' This development comes just days after Putin suggested the fighting in Ukraine is nearing its end, marking a significant moment in Russia's nuclear arsenal modernization efforts. The Sarmat, designed to replace the aging Soviet-built Voyevoda missiles, represents a substantial leap in Russia's strategic capabilities and is scheduled to enter combat service by the end of 2026.The Technical Breakthrough: Understanding the Sarmat MissileThe RS-28 Sarmat, codenamed 'Satan II' in Western intelligence circles, is an intercontinental ballistic missile with a minimum range of 5,500km (about 3,400 miles). According to Putin, the missile has a maximum range exceeding 35,000km (21,750 miles) – a claim disputed by Western analysts who estimate the actual range to be approximately 18,000km (11,000 miles). Despite this discrepancy, both figures would theoretically allow the missile to reach virtually any target on Earth from Russian territory.Development of the Sarmat began in 2011, and it will eventually replace about 40 Soviet-built Voyevoda missiles. Notably, one test in September 2024 reportedly ended in a catastrophic failure, highlighting the challenges in developing such complex weaponry. The Sarmat reaches 35.3 meters (116ft) in length, 3 meters (9.8ft) in diameter, and weighs 208.1 tonnes, with a maximum payload capacity of 10 tonnes.The Specifications: Capabilities and Design FeaturesThe Sarmat represents a significant advancement over its predecessors in several key areas. Putin claims that while maintaining the power of the Voyevoda, the new missile offers higher precision. Its maximum payload of 10 tonnes allows it to carry multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), with Putin stating that the combined power of these warheads exceeds four times that of any Western counterpart.One of the Sarmat's most notable features is its ability to reach high speeds quickly and stop burning its engines sooner than traditional intercontinental ballistic missiles. According to Putin, this characteristic gives missile defense systems less time and fewer opportunities to detect, track, and intercept the incoming missile. Additionally, the Sarmat is capable of suborbital flight, meaning it can reach outer space but cannot maintain orbit or complete a full revolution around Earth.The Geopolitical Impact: Russia's Arms Race StrategyThe unveiling of the Sarmat is part of a broader Russian strategy to counter what Moscow perceives as an expanding US missile defense system. Putin has explicitly linked these new weapons to the US withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2001, which Russia viewed as destabilizing the strategic balance.Russian military planners fear that a robust US missile shield could tempt Washington to launch a first strike, targeting most of Moscow's nuclear arsenal with the expectation that only a few retaliatory missiles might penetrate the defenses. In response, Russia has developed not just the Sarmat but also the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle (capable of flying 27 times the speed of sound), the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, and is developing the Poseidon underwater drone and Burevestnik cruise missile.The timing of these announcements is particularly significant, coming as Russia claims progress in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The display of nuclear capabilities may serve as both a deterrent to Western intervention and a demonstration of Russia's continued military prowess despite the ongoing conflict.The Future Outlook: Implications for Global SecurityThe deployment of the Sarmat missile is likely to intensify the nuclear arms race between Russia and the United States. While Putin claims the missile can 'penetrate all existing and future antimissile defense systems,' the US is simultaneously developing its own 'Golden Dome' missile defense system, estimated to cost $1.2 trillion over the next 20 years.The Sarmat's entry into service by the end of 2026 will mark a significant shift in the global strategic balance. Its capabilities, particularly if they approach Putin's claims rather than Western estimates, could render current missile defense systems obsolete and force a complete reassessment of nuclear deterrence strategies.As Russia continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal while simultaneously engaging in what it claims are peace negotiations over Ukraine, the international community faces the challenge of preventing a new era of heightened nuclear tensions. The Sarmat missile represents not just a technological achievement for Russia but a clear signal of its determination to maintain its status as a nuclear superpower in an increasingly multipolar world.

The Recent Tremors A series of nine small earthquakes struck the Pardis area east of Tehran overnight, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported on Wednesday, renewing fears among experts and residents that the Iranian capital could face a major seismic disaster. Concerns Over Accumulated Tectonic Pressure The repeated activity has revived concerns that accumulated tectonic pressure beneath and around the capital, which lies close to several active fault lines, could at some point in the future trigger a much larger earthquake. The Mosha Fault: A Major Seismic Zone The tremors, recorded over a single night in eastern Tehran province, were felt in an area close to the Mosha fault, one of Iran’s most active seismic zones. The fault, about 150km (93 miles) in length, is one of the major active faults of the country, located approximately 40km (25 miles) from the capital. No Casualties or Damage Reported State media reported that the magnitude of one of the earthquakes was 4.6, but the mild seismic activity did not cause casualties or material damage. Warnings of Future Risk Semi-official Mehr news agency quoted seismologist Mehdi Zare as saying it was not clear whether the tremors represented a release of built-up seismic energy that would reduce future risk or instead were warning signs of stronger future activity along the fault system near Tehran. Zare warned that Tehran’s vulnerability is amplified not only by active fault lines but also by dense urban development, population concentration and limited preparedness. He said even relatively small earthquakes can cause disruption in the capital due to fragile infrastructure and congestion, complicating emergency response. Tehran's Vulnerability Tehran, a metropolitan area of more than 14 million people, lies near major active faults, including the North Tehran, Mosha and Rey. Iranian experts have repeatedly warned that a major earthquake near Tehran could have catastrophic consequences. Iran is among the world’s most quake-prone countries, and memories remain vivid of the 2003 Bam earthquake, which killed more than 30,000 people.

The Lead: A High-Stakes Diplomatic Encounter Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to seek concessions on Taiwan and US tariffs when he meets United States President Donald Trump for a critical summit taking place in the shadow of the war on Iran. Trump's arrival in China marks the first trip by a US leader to the country since 2017, setting the stage for what could be a pivotal moment in US-China relations. The Taiwan Confrontation: Core Interest and Red Lines Unlike Trump's mercurial policymaking approach, Xi is widely seen as predictable in his goals for the summit, particularly concerning Beijing's "core interests" related to national security and territorial integrity. At the top of that list is Taiwan, which Beijing views as an inalienable part of its territory despite Taiwan's self-governing status. China has named Taiwan as the first of "four red lines" that "must not be challenged." In a call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi described Taiwan as "the biggest risk in the China-US relationship." While analysts say it's unlikely the US will change its position on Taiwan due to Chinese pressure, Trump has indicated the summit will include discussions about the $14bn arms package approved by Congress for Taiwan. The Trade War Dynamics: Economic Uncertainty and Strategic Maneuvering Xi is also eager to smooth over US-China relations after a tumultuous 18 months that saw Trump launch a second trade war with the world's second-largest economy. The standoff saw both countries implement escalating tariffs and punitive measures, including export controls, before hitting pause in May. During their last meeting in South Korea in October, Xi and Trump agreed to a one-year reprieve in their trade war, though some trade measures remain in place. China is likely to agree to increase purchases of US agricultural exports and Boeing planes during the summit, but is unlikely to make concessions on rare earths—a sector it dominates—without major political trade-offs from the US. The Geopolitical Chessboard: Iran Conflict and Global Implications The US-Israel war on Iran will loom large over the summit. Although not a direct participant, China has been significantly impacted by the economic fallout of the conflict and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies typically pass. Beijing has consistently called for negotiations and a comprehensive ceasefire since the conflict began, a message Xi is likely to reiterate. Despite Trump stating he doesn't need China's "help" resolving the war, the White House has pressured Beijing to influence Iran to reopen the strait. China has maintained a "comprehensive strategic partnership" with Iran since 2016 and purchases more than 80% of its oil, though Xi is expected to limit China's role to mediation, consistent with its non-intervention foreign policy principle. The Future of US-China Relations: Strategic Adjustments and Long-term Planning For Beijing, the stakes are particularly high as its view of Trump has shifted from a "predictable transactional counterpart" to a "more action-oriented and harder-to-restrain opponent." Rather than securing immediate concessions, China's priority is "trying to adjust the current strategic position and negotiating pace that are unfavorable to it, and bring US-China interactions back into a framework that it can better control." Xi may also support Trump's plan to create a "Board of Trade" and "Board of Investment" to oversee US-China economic ties, as Beijing seeks predictability and certainty for the remainder of Trump's term through January 2029. This stability would allow China to plan its own economic policies with greater confidence, particularly regarding tariff levels and trade relationships.