The AI Boom: Understanding the Billions Spent and Hypothetical Returns
The AI Market Surge
The race is very much on. Elon Musk's SpaceX, which makes AI models as well as space rockets, announced last week it is seeking a $1.77tn (£1.31tn) valuation on the US stock market while Anthropic, the startup behind the Claude chatbot, said it had filed for an initial public offering. OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, is expected to follow.
AI Has Sent Stocks Soaring
The S&P 500, which tracks the 500 biggest US companies, has been on a tear over the past five years – rising by nearly 80%. That jump has been driven by big tech stocks with a stake in the AI boom, the “magnificent seven” of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.
Expenditure Is Growing at a Staggering Rate
Spending on AI – from datacentres to chips – is racing ahead, from $765bn this year to $1.6tn in 2031, according to Goldman Sachs. The investment bank acknowledges there could be problems with this scale of commitment. What if the datacentres are delayed?
Firms and Consumers Are Adopting AI at Pace
Despite mixed reports on the benefits, the vast majority of companies are starting to use AI – up from 33% in 2023 to nearly 80% now, according to the consultancy group McKinsey. Usage among the general public is also high, with OpenAI's ChatGPT now reaching 1bn monthly active users, according to data from Sensor Tower – a record for any app.
Claude Is Snapping at ChatGPT's Heels
Anthropic began to gain ground on OpenAI late last year, when its Claude Code tool went viral among mostly San Francisco-area software developers, before spreading more widely. Claude Code represented a shift in how large language models – the core technology behind chatbots – are used, ushering in a transition towards autonomous AI agents that carry out tasks without human intervention, enabling even the non-tech-savvy to create software and do a wide range of tasks.
AI Is Getting More Expensive to Use
Every time an AI chatbot or agent issues a response, it is measured in “tokens” – building blocks of language that can be words, punctuation marks or syllables. The costs of these vary per model; OpenAI prices it at $5 a million input tokens for GPT-5.5, and $30 a million output tokens (ie the response given to your prompt).
Datacentre Building Might Not Keep Pace with Demand
Datacentre construction represents the central nervous system of AI products so growing development and use of AI tools must be matched by more capacity – otherwise there will be a compute crunch, which means rising costs for AI companies and users.