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Politics
Jun 18, 2026
Analyzed by GPT OSS 120B

VAT on Private School Fees Doesn’t Trigger Mass Exodus, Says Education Secretary

AI Summary
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson says the 20% VAT introduced on private school fees has not caused the feared flood of pupils into state schools. Admissions data for England shows a decline in applications and high offer rates, while the policy is on track to raise £1.8bn annually by 2029‑30.

VAT Introduction to Private School Fees Fails to Spark Mass Exodus

From the start of 2025 the Labour government applied a 20% VAT to private school fees, ending a long‑standing exemption. Despite predictions of a large shift to the state sector, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson reports that the expected exodus simply hasn’t materialised.

Admissions Data Shows No Surge in State School Applications

  • 94% of secondary applicants and 98% of primary applicants in London received an offer from one of their six preferred schools.
  • Overall applications for both primary and secondary places fell year‑on‑year.
  • 85% of families secured their first‑choice secondary place – higher than in 2025 and 2024.
  • Former chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned up to 90,000 children could move to state schools; the data instead shows a decline.
  • Independent school enrolments dropped 3.8% (‑22,000 pupils) in 2026, while the Independent Schools Council claims a loss of 30,000 pupils (including schools outside England).

Policy Implications for Labour’s Funding Plans and the School Market

The Department for Education (DfE) now expects the VAT levy to generate £1.8 bn a year by 2029‑30, earmarked for hiring an additional 6,500 teachers. However, the National Audit Office has questioned the DfE’s capacity to meet this recruitment pledge, especially for secondary, special‑needs and further‑education staff.

Future Outlook: How VAT May Shape the Independent School Sector

While the immediate impact on state school demand is muted, demographic trends – a falling birthrate and post‑Brexit population shifts – could mask longer‑term effects. Continued revenue from the VAT may pressure independent schools to adapt pricing or consolidate, and the DfE’s ongoing monitoring will determine whether the policy meets its broader equity goals.