US Secret Mission to Bypass Iran's Hormuz Blockade

The US Claim

Donald Trump has claimed that the US has been conducting a 'secret mission' in the Strait of Hormuz to help Gulf petrostates bypass Iran's chokehold on oil flows.

The Event Details

According to Trump, dozens of tankers have been escorted out of the blockaded channel at night with their transmitters off. He later wrote that 200 vessels had gotten out this way, transporting more than 100m barrels of oil to global buyers.

The Data Analysis

Lloyd's List reports that the US has been helping some 'shadow transits' by running 'overwatch operations', using autonomous vehicles, aircraft, and drones to escort tankers through the southern part of the strait.

• About 25% of the tankers present in the Gulf at the start of the crisis have managed to leave the region since the conflict began.
• Satellite images show 'dark tankers' loading at Gulf ports before undertaking shadow transits and ship-to-ship transfers.

The Impact Analysis

The clandestine flows via dark transits and shuttle tankers may have picked up in recent weeks, with market observers believing much more oil could be leaving the Gulf than previously thought.

• Ship-to-ship transfers may have helped an average of about 1.9m barrels of oil a day to move through the strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman since the start of April.
• The figure may have reached highs of 2.1m barrels a day in late May.

The Prediction

Despite the increase in oil flows, rising prices are expected to return without a return to normal oil flows. The price of Brent crude is expected to average $130 a barrel in July and August as global oil inventories continue to sink and demand for fuels during the summer driving season rises.