UK Export Certificates to the Middle East Plunge 20% Amid Iran War

AI Summary

UK export documentation shows a 20% year‑on‑year fall in certificates of origin for the Middle East as the Iran‑Israel conflict disrupts trade routes. The British Chambers of Commerce warns longer shipping times, higher costs and a bleak outlook for SMEs.

UK exports to the Middle East have fallen sharply as the Iran‑Israel conflict entered its eighth week, with export documentation showing a 20% year‑on‑year decline in March 2026.

The Sharp 20% Drop in UK Export Certificates to the Middle East

The British Chambers of Commerce reported that certificates of origin for goods shipped to Arab League nations fell from 15,437 in March 2025 to 12,360 in March 2026.

Certificate of Origin Numbers Reveal a Year‑on‑Year Decline

March 2025: 15,437 certificates
March 2026: 12,360 certificates
Decrease: 20% YoY

Geopolitical Shockwaves: How the Iran Conflict Is Disrupting Trade Routes

Steven Lynch, director of international trade at the British Chambers of Commerce, warned that firms face longer routes, higher insurance premiums and stretched lead times, especially for SMEs.

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and a potential U.S. blockade of Iranian ports are compounding the slowdown.

Outlook: SMEs Face Cash‑Flow Strain and Firms Anticipate Further Slow‑down

According to the CBI’s Growth Indicator, business activity is expected to fall over the next three months, with services and manufacturing volumes projected to contract.

Continued uncertainty may pressure pricing and erode confidence in UK export markets.