Trump's Potential Call with Taiwan's Leader: A Diplomatic Shift

The Diplomatic Implication

President Donald Trump has twice suggested, since his summit with China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week, that he may speak with Taiwan’s President William Lai Ching-te. That would mark the first direct contact between leaders of the governments since the US switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. It remains committed, however, under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to supporting the defence of the self-governing democracy.

Taiwan's Response

In a foreign affairs ministry statement on Wednesday, Taiwan’s President responded to Trump’s comments, saying he would be “happy” to talk to him. Taiwan was committed to maintaining a stable status quo in the Taiwan Strait, he added, but “China is the disruptor of peace and stability”. Beijing regards Taiwan as part of Chinese territory.

The Data Analysis

The statement comes as the White House considers a $14bn arms deal with Taiwan. China’s foreign ministry responded saying it “firmly opposes official exchanges” between the US and Taiwan, as well as US arms sales to the island.

The Impact Analysis

Trump’s comments suggest he may be willing to break with decades of diplomatic protocol, which will likely jar with Beijing, say analysts. Based on past events, Beijing will not be happy if Trump does meet with or talk to Taiwan’s president. When the former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022, her two-day visit sparked heightened tensions between the two countries.

The Prediction

Analysts say that included in its response is an awareness in Beijing that Trump is unreliable and unpredictable. If Trump calls Lai and announces that the US will “continue to support Taiwan and provide a large arms package; all hell will break loose”. However, he said, the very fact that Trump even entertained the idea of speaking with Xi about whether the United States would sell weapons to certain countries was a win for Beijing.