10 Devastating Impacts of a 'Super' El Niño on Global Systems

The Coming Climate Crisis: A Super El Niño Event

A powerful, or 'super' El Niño – marked by 2°C (3.6°F) or greater increase in sea surface temperatures – is now highly probable for this year, lasting into 2027. Weakened trade winds allow warm surface waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific, disrupting ocean circulation and altering weather patterns worldwide. El Niño is intensifying an already unequal global economy, with food insecurity rooted in dependency and global market integration, while climate shocks expose how supply chains push risk onto the world's poorest populations.

Ten Potential Worst-Case Scenarios of a Super El Niño

1. Drought

   Drought hits rain-fed agricultural regions particularly hard. In parts of sub-Saharan Africa grain yields often fall during and following El Niño's, increasing import dependence and raising food prices. This time around, El Niño will occur during an already-existing fertilizer crisis caused by the closure of the strait of Hormuz, leading to warnings about extreme hunger and famine.

2. Shock to Global Food Supply Chains

   Globally, there is a heightened risk of a shock to global food supply chains. Four crops – wheat, rice, maize and soybeans – provide more than 60% of the world's calorie intake. Maize and rice are especially sensitive to El Niño, with drought and disrupted monsoons reducing yields in major producers such as South Africa, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil. Wheat is affected by heat and drought in key exporters like Australia, Canada and China, while soybean production has fallen in countries such as Brazil and Argentina.

3. Wildfire Risk

   El Niño can heighten wildfire risk in some regions. In South America, it often reduces wet-season rainfall, leaving vegetation drier and more fire-prone; severe fires in Brazil in 2016 and 2024 burned millions of hectares. These fires release vast carbon stocks and take decades to recover.

4. Excess Rainfall

   Parts of the southern United States and South America, the Horn of Africa and central Asia often experience excess rainfall during El Niño, leading to flooding. While heavier rainfall can replenish groundwater, increasingly concentrated storms can also reduce absorption and accelerate soil drying. This is because intense bursts of rainfall exceed infiltration capacity, causing runoff rather than absorption, while longer dry intervals between storms accelerate soil moisture loss.

5. Increased Coal Consumption

   Greater heat can increase already high levels of coal consumption in parts of the world. El Niño brings above-average temperatures and intensifies prolonged heatwaves in South Asia by weakening monsoon rains, which increases demand for air conditioning. Coal-based power systems in Asia supply about 70% of electricity in India and approximately 55% in China.

6. Grid Failure Risk

   Drought also impacts hydropower generation, increasing risk of grid failures. Colombia, for example, relies upon hydropower for about 65% of its energy generation. During the 2015-16 El Niño, reduced rainfall cut hydropower generation, pushing up electricity prices and increasing risk of blackouts. In the 1992 El Niño, the Colombian government introduced power rationing.

7. Declining Fish Stocks

   El Niño stops cool water upwelling in parts of the Pacific, limiting nutrient availability for phytoplankton and leaving small fish such as anchovies and sardines without enough food. Larger predatory fish are then negatively affected and often migrate further than usual. Fisheries from California and Mexico, to Peru and Ecuador, and from Papua New Guinea to Micronesia can be affected. Declining catch volumes result as upwelling-dependent fisheries face reduced biomass, leading to lower seasonal harvests and income.

8. Heightened Geopolitical Tensions over Critical Agricultural Inputs

   More extreme weather could exacerbate geopolitical tensions. Rising temperatures reduce crop fertility and farmers often respond by applying more fertilizers. In the context of the global fertilizer crisis, China, some of the gulf states and Algeria have deployed protectionist measures to limit fertilizer exports. Russia has halted export licenses for ammonium nitrate – a crucial fertilizer ingredient. The United States is attempting to increase domestic fertilizer production as part of its broader America First industrial policy. From a simple agricultural input fertilizer production, trade and use could become another fracture in global politics.

9. Higher Rates of Heat Illness

   All these dynamics impact societies unequally. Workers exposed to heat stress face heightened health risks, particularly in physically demanding jobs such as agriculture and construction, including heat-related illnesses and long-term health damage. During the heat season in India's capital Delhi, temperatures often exceed 40°C, putting an increasing number of its workers' health and lives at risk.

10. Civil Conflict

    Reduced crop yields and weakened economies often intensify social tensions. The likelihood of civil conflict in affected tropical countries can double during El Niño years. According to one study, about 21% of conflicts since 1950 are linked to such climate patterns. In Sudan, including Darfur, drought and harvest failures tied to climate variability including El Niño conditions, exacerbated resource scarcity and already-existing social inequalities, contributing to conflict dynamics.

Global System Vulnerability and Unequal Impacts

Taken together, these impacts reveal not just a climate event, but a global system in which environmental shocks are transmitted through supply chains, unequal trade and energy provision and consumption, disproportionately burdening the poor in the global south. The technology and know-how exist to transition away from fossil fuels to renewables, but without transforming the global systems that organize supply chains, energy and trade, these solutions will remain uneven in their reach and impact.

Pathways to Resilience and Systemic Change

There is extensive knowledge on building resilient agricultural systems that can generate food security whilst contributing to ecosystem restoration. However, breaking out of an export-oriented, chemically intensive agricultural system will take large-scale political transformations. The coming super El Niño represents both a crisis and an opportunity to rethink our global systems and create more equitable, sustainable approaches to climate resilience.