Millions of Homes in London, Essex, and Kent at Risk of Sinking Due to Climate Crisis

AI Summary

Millions of homes in London, Essex, and Kent are at risk of sinking due to climate-related subsidence, according to an analysis by the British Geological Survey. The areas are susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence as hotter, drier summers become more frequent.

The Growing Threat of Climate-Related Subsidence

Millions of homes are at risk from climate-related subsidence, according to an analysis by the British Geological Survey (BGS). As hotter, drier summers driven by global heating become more frequent, the ground under houses can shrink and drag down a property’s foundations.

Most Vulnerable Areas

The most vulnerable areas include London, Essex, Kent and a tranche of land from Oxford up to the Wash on England’s east coast, according to scientists, who say mitigation measures will be needed.

The Data Analysis

By 2070, about 500,000 properties could be affected under a low emissions scenario aligned to the Paris climate agreement. This rises to more than 1.8m properties under a medium scenario, closest to current global emissions trajectories.

The Impact Analysis

Subsidence can substantially reduce a property’s value and lenders will often refuse to offer mortgages until it has been resolved. Signs include diagonal cracks around window and door frames, as well as sloping floors. It can require engineering work to stabilise land or underpin a property.

The Prediction

Highly populated parts of London including Camden, Islington and Barnet are most susceptible, as well as Kent in the south-east of England. Under the medium emissions scenario, the number of properties likely to be affected in the capital will exceed 26% by 2070.