Israel's Delicate Balance: Navigating US-Iran Relations and Lebanon Conflict

The Lead

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has restrained himself from openly displaying his opposition to the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States. But looking to the positions of Israelis from across the political spectrum, and the military’s actions in Lebanon, the picture is clear: Israel is angry, and Israel is worried.

Netanyahu's Constrained Response

Netanyahu has always been careful with US President Donald Trump, knowing that his occasional criticisms of Israeli policy have been coupled with allowing Israel to pursue many of its military and political goals, even as the rest of the world isolates the country. The war with Iran was a case in point – after years of US refusal, Netanyahu had finally convinced a US president to jointly attack Iran.

The Data Analysis

Under the terms of the US-Iran agreement, as well as creating a $300bn reconstruction plan for Iran, the US commits that it and “its allies” will undertake the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon”.

The Impact Analysis

Israel immediately responded to that agreement by pounding Lebanon, killing at least 47 people on Friday, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. Four Israeli soldiers were also killed overnight by the armed Lebanese group, Hezbollah, prompting Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to say that “all of Lebanon must burn”.

The Prediction

How far Netanyahu can go in his defiance of the US, whose diplomatic and financial support are critical to Israel, and how far he can go in appeasing an Israeli public and political establishment widely understood to reject the deal, is unclear. According to a television poll published on Thursday, only a small minority of Israelis believe their country has won the war against Iran – an opponent that, for generations, they had been told was bent on their destruction.