Ultra-Orthodox Protests Escalate as Israel Faces Military Conscription Crisis

The Escalating Conscription Crisis

Thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jewish men brought city centres across central Israel to a halt on Thursday night as they protested against the arrest of their fellow adherents for refusing conscription into the army. Their refusal to serve is not based on moral objections to Israel's wars, but rather because they view military service as diluting their faith and distracting from Torah study, which they consider a form of national service providing "spiritual protection" for the Jewish people.

Protests by angry young ultra-Orthodox men have become regular occurrences across Israel, with violence now routine. Dozens of police officers and protesters have been injured, and scores more arrested for their involvement in the unrest. The blockage of streets and closure of parts of city centers have become common as tensions continue to mount.

Religious Freedom vs. National Duty

The fundamental issue at stake is the exemption of ultra-Orthodox men from military service, a practice that Israel's Supreme Court has repeatedly struck down since the 2010s, ruling that blanket exemptions violate equality before the law. In June 2024, the court went further, declaring the system unlawful and ordering the conscription of eligible ultra-Orthodox men, which has intensified political conflict and triggered increased violence.

Ultra-Orthodox leaders frame state restrictions as "shemad," a form of religious persecution directed against Jewish observance and identity. Within this understanding, even normally forbidden acts may be permitted, including at times Sabbath violations or force used in self-defense. While protests are generally framed as non-violent, clashes with police are interpreted as defensive responses within this legal-religious framework.

Political Fallout and Coalition Instability

The threat of losing parliamentary support from the two main ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), has pushed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition to bring forward a bill to dissolve parliament. The government has also aligned itself with a bill that would enshrine the exemption of ultra-Orthodox religious students from the draft, despite public opposition.

Parliamentarians from UTJ have described the bill as "a declaration of holy war against those who blaspheme God, persecute the Torah and oppose those who study it," while referring to opponents as "anti-Semites" and "enemies of the Torah and its students." Both parties claim they were compelled to bring forward the bill due to the "systematic persecution of Torah scholars" by "dictatorial jurists," referring to members of Israel's Supreme Court, whose homes have been targeted for violence by protesters.

The Growing Ultra-Orthodox Population

The ultra-Orthodox community currently constitutes about 12% of Israel's Jewish population, but their birthrate is exceptionally high, with families typically having eight to ten children. This demographic trend means their percentage will increase considerably within 10 to 20 years. The numbers of ultra-Orthodox students granted exemption from military service has grown dramatically, from 400 in 1948 to more than 54,000 students eligible for recruitment today.

Professor Daniel Bar-Tal of Tel Aviv University notes that of these ultra-Orthodox individuals, only about half would likely take part in the military service or work in the jobs that power the economy. "It is very unfair," he states, adding that "the present government, which depends very much on their support, buys them with money." This growing demographic shift raises profound questions about Israel's future social structure and economic sustainability.

Election Implications and Future Outlook

Polls show that about four-fifths of Israelis support conscripting ultra-Orthodox men or sanctioning draft refusal, with a survey by the Israel Democracy Institute finding 85% back sanctions on ultra-Orthodox men who refuse to serve, including ending state benefits for students whose families rely on them. This widespread public support has made the issue increasingly important politically.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has warned that the failure to confront the exemption represents a "slow-motion path to suicide." However, analysts suggest that despite public sentiment, political realities may prevent meaningful change. "Everything is moving faster and more dramatically towards the election," says analyst Ori Goldberg. "As we get closer, the opposition is falling over itself to be seen as not bending the knee to the ultra-Orthodox while, at the same time, secretly preparing to bend the knee."

Netanyahu, who has relied on ultra-Orthodox parties for political support while stopping short of giving them the military exemption they demand, remains well-positioned to navigate this complex issue. "He's been running it for 20 years," Goldberg notes. "The ultra-Orthodox are a known quantity. He knows what he needs to do and, if it comes to who to form a coalition with, it'll be Netanyahu they go to." For the Israeli public, however, the issue represents a shifting focus from the Gaza conflict to domestic divisions, with potentially significant implications for the upcoming elections.