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Economy
May 01, 2026
Analyzed by GPT OSS 120B

Iran War Threatens Fertiliser Supply, Raising Food Security Risks in Africa, Says Yara CEO

AI Summary
Yara International’s chief executive warned that the Iran war could trigger a global fertiliser auction, driving prices up 60‑70% and jeopardising food security for Africa’s most vulnerable. He urged world leaders to act before soaring costs translate into widespread shortages.

Executive Summary: Yara CEO Warns of Fertiliser‑Driven Food Crisis in Africa

Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of the world’s largest fertiliser producer, said the war in Iran could create a "global auction" for fertiliser that would make it unaffordable for the poorest African nations, risking sharp food‑price spikes and shortages.

War‑Induced Disruption of Global Fertiliser Supply Chains

The conflict has already choked supply lines for nitrogenous fertilisers, especially urea, which 35% of the world’s output originates from Gulf states. Production cuts in ammonia – a key feedstock – and outright shutdowns in Qatar have further strained inventories.

Financial Ripple: Fertiliser Prices Surge 60‑70% Since February

  • Urea price increase: up between 60% and 70% since the war began at the end of February.
  • Yara’s market share: controls roughly 35% of global urea supply.
  • Supply constraints: inventories are dwindling as plants run out of storage capacity.

Implications for African Food Security and Farm Economics

Africa, despite its potential as a major food producer, remains a net importer of fertiliser. Higher input costs will force farmers to under‑fertilise, lowering yields and driving up food prices for consumers. The EU has announced up to €50,000 subsidies for its farmers, a safety net that is absent across sub‑Saharan Africa.

Outlook: Potential Global Fertiliser Auction and Policy Responses

Holsether cautions that without coordinated international action, the market could devolve into a bidding war that marginalises the most vulnerable. He calls for pre‑emptive measures – such as strategic stockpiles, targeted subsidies, and diplomatic pressure to keep fertiliser flows open – to avert a looming crisis.