Experts Warn Congo Ebola Outbreak Could Be 'Worst Ever' in History

The Global Health Alarm on Congo's Ebola Crisis

The deadly Ebola virus outbreak in eastern Africa could be the "worst ever" in history, the director-general of Africa's Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Jean Kaseya, has warned. Kaseya sounded the alarm during a virtual meeting of African heads of state and international donors in Burundi, highlighting the unprecedented challenges facing health workers in containing this particular strain of the virus.

The Bundibugyo Strain: A New Challenge Without Solutions

Although the Bundibugyo virus has appeared before – in 2007 and 2012 in eastern DRC – it is rarer than other forms of Ebola, and there are currently no approved vaccines or treatments for it. Vaccines developed to combat the Zaire form cannot simply be used to prevent Bundibugyo without World Health Organization testing and approval. Analysts say this strain has so far been ignored because of its rarity, with pharmaceutical companies not seeing it as a priority for research and development.

Alarming Numbers: The Scale of the Current Outbreak

At least 837 people have been infected in the epicentre of the outbreak, the Democratic Republic of Congo, while 196 people have died, authorities say. In neighbouring Uganda, 19 cases and two deaths have been reported. "If we don't stop the outbreak very soon, it will be worse than what we had in West Africa and eastern DRC," Kaseya said, referring to previous outbreaks in West Africa in 2014, which resulted in the deaths of more than 11,000 people, and a later one in the DRC in 2018 that led to the deaths of more than 2,000.

Perfect Storm: Conflict and Community Resistance

This outbreak is taking place against the backdrop of an ongoing conflict in eastern DRC, where armed groups are battling government forces. This makes it much harder for health workers to travel in the region to trace the disease's spread effectively or provide care to infected people who might be in rebel-held territory or crowded refugee camps. Added to this is the stigma and disinformation circulating about Ebola in communities, with many believing the disease is a ruse for the government to siphon funds and refusing to report symptoms or comply with burial restrictions.

International Response: Funding Shortfalls and Geopolitical Challenges

International intervention is more limited this time compared with the earlier West Africa outbreak. In 2014, international donors responded with between $5.9bn and $8.9bn of funding and personnel help. This time around, only one-fifth of the $518m needed to respond to the outbreak has so far been raised. The latest outbreak is occurring at a time when international cooperation on health and aid is shaky, largely due to the US's slashing of foreign aid and the closure of USAID, which had supported many health programmes overseas.

The Road Ahead: Containment Challenges and Future Projections

Authorities fear there are numerous undetected cases, with Keseya reporting that tens of thousands could be infected but have not been traced at all. "The contact tracing is a major indicator and a major issue," he said. "We are missing more than 26,000 people, and we don't know where they are, and we don't know if they are contaminating other people." Cases are being detected in new areas within the affected DRC provinces on a "near-daily" basis, reflecting the scale of local community spread. Without immediate and substantial international intervention, health officials predict this outbreak could continue for at least a year and potentially surpass previous records in both infection rates and fatalities.