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Jun 24, 2026
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A Decade After Brexit: Europe Moves Forward as Britain Struggles with Identity

AI Summary
Ten years after the Brexit vote, the European Union has largely moved on and even strengthened its integration, while the UK continues to face political instability and growing calls for rejoining the bloc. Younger British voters and some European leaders express support for a potential 'Breturn,' though significant obstacles remain.

The Brexit Anniversary: Two Paths Diverge

The morning of June 24, 2016, dawned grey and overcast in Brussels after the UK voted to leave the European Union. In the decade since, the EU has transformed itself while Britain remains in a state of political flux, with seven prime ministers in ten years and an ongoing debate about its relationship with Europe.

The Immediate Aftermath: Shock and Uncertainty

In the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, EU officials broke down in tears while anti-EU populists celebrated. European leaders feared a domino effect of withdrawals from the bloc. The then-president of the European parliament, Martin Schulz, revealed that EU lawyers were studying whether it was possible to speed up the triggering of Article 50, the EU's exit clause. European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker declared he would like to get Brexit negotiations started 'immediately'.

After the initial shock, the EU rallied. Meeting without the UK for the first time on June 29, 2016, the 27 member states set out their red lines: no negotiations without notification of Article 50, no cherry-picking, and no splitting the four freedoms: free movement of goods, services, capital, and people.

The EU's Resilience: Integration Without Britain

The dominos never fell. Despite fundamental challenges including a global pandemic, the invasion of Ukraine, energy price shocks, and economic competition from China, the EU has carried on and even deepened integration. Since the Brexit vote, the EU has embarked on common borrowing and joint purchases of weapons, gas, and vaccines – decisions that would have been more difficult with a British prime minister at the table.

Jonathan Faull, the former head of the European Commission's UK taskforce, noted that the EU has gotten used to Brexit. 'The final deal that was done is very much to the EU's advantage. I think Frost and co negotiated badly,' he said, referring to Lord Frost, the UK's erstwhile chief negotiator. 'The trade and cooperation agreement leaves the EU pretty satisfied in economic terms. The status quo suits them. On the continent, there's no great desire to reset relations with the UK. They seem to be broadly OK.'

The UK's Political Turmoil: Instability and Division

A decade later, Britain is heading for its seventh prime minister in 10 years, while its relationship with the EU remains contested. The UK has faced three prime ministers, two elections, and a long-running parliamentary crisis since the Brexit vote. Political instability has become the norm, with frequent leadership changes and shifting positions on Europe.

For the EU, Brexit is viewed with detachment as a historical episode, while in the UK, the debate continues to divide the country. The initial optimism about Brexit's potential benefits has given way to growing recognition of economic challenges and diminished international influence.

The Growing Rejoin Movement: From Breturn to Reality

In the UK, a significant shift is occurring, particularly among younger voters. A poll published recently found that 60% of those aged 18-28 would support rejoining the EU. Britain's most-likely next prime minister, Andy Burnham, has acknowledged a 'long-term case' for rejoining, though he wouldn't advocate for it immediately.

European leaders have expressed mixed but generally positive reactions to the possibility of UK's return. Poland's prime minister, Donald Tusk, has said he dreams of 'Breturn,' while Spain's leader Pedro Sánchez stated 'we miss the UK within the EU.' Two-thirds of EU citizens would support Britain rejoining the bloc, according to a poll for the European Council on Foreign Relations.

The Path Forward: Obstacles and Opportunities

In reality, rejoining is not on the immediate table. Georg Riekeles, who worked for the EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, believes rejoining is a long-term prospect that ultimately depends on a British consensus. 'The strategic, economic and geopolitical logic all point in one direction but rejoining is not a mood, it is a national choice requiring realism, discipline and trust,' he said.

Riekeles noted that the UK's political instability raises questions about its readiness for such a major decision. 'What the EU will be looking for is a UK that has a stable and durable national consensus. Nobody wants to be on a rollercoaster ride.' As the Brexit anniversary passes, the divergent paths of Europe and Britain continue to shape their respective futures.