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The Presidential Pitch United States President Donald Trump has sought to reassure farmers hard-hit by tariffs and the economic fallout of the US-Israeli war with Iran during a visit to Wisconsin. Farmers Hit by Tariffs and High Prices The stop in Chippewa Falls on Friday for a farming roundtable comes months before the midterm elections in November. Trump was seeking to bolster support for Republican US Representative Derrick Van Orden, who has been targeted by Democrats hoping to take control of the chamber. Farmers have been particularly hard-hit by Trump's aggressive tariff policies, with many countries limiting imports of US products, notably soybeans, in response. The tariffs have also made importing items needed for daily operations more expensive. Economic Challenges Facing Farmers The administration has sought to offset the fallout with temporary aid packages for farmers. An April survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation found that 70 percent of farmers in the US reported they cannot afford all of their fertiliser needs. The average gas price of $4.04 per gallon of petrol this week was also $1.08 higher than a year ago, according to the American Automobile Association. The Impact on Midterm Elections Democrats are considered favourites to take control of the US House of Representatives, currently controlled by Republicans, in the midterms. Success for Democrats would allow the party to seriously restrict Trump's agenda in the final two years of his term. The Future Outlook Trump assured those gathered that the administration had 'largely finished' the war 'one way or the other'. He vowed fertiliser and gas prices would come 'way down'.

The Lead Tehran, Iran – In the popular Bastan market in the west of the Iranian capital, where the inviting smell of fresh bread and fruit mingle with the sight of colourful fabrics and clothing, the scene no longer holds its usual joy. Passersby wander among the vendors' stalls, carefully turning goods over only to return them to their places. Everyday Survival in a Hyperinflation Economy "Daily shopping trips have turned into something resembling a reconnaissance mission to find out the new prices," says Mashhadi Firouz, a 63-year-old retiree. "A year ago, a kilo of rice was about 1.8 million rials ($1.31), but today it has crossed the 5-million-rial ($3.63) threshold." Similarly, a bottle of cooking oil has increased from 700,000 rials ($0.51) to more than 3 million rials ($2.18). Fatima, 46, a housewife and mother of three, explains: "I now go to the market three times a week instead of once, not because I need anything, but to see if there is a seller who has goods at a lower price." She adds, "Red meat has become a dream, chicken has become a mere guest on our table, and I have even started counting eggs one by one." The Economic Statistics Behind the Crisis A new report by the Central Bank of Iran revealed a historic jump in the annual inflation rate, reaching 77.2 percent year-on-year in the period between April 21 and May 20, with a monthly increase of 8.5 percent. Furthermore, point-to-point inflation for goods reached 113 percent. This is Iran's highest inflation rate since 1942, during World War II. The Perfect Economic Storm Arman Khaleghi, head of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Mines, points to what he describes as a "perfect economic storm" of five factors that have all poured down simultaneously on the Iranian economy. These include: the elimination of the preferential currency, protests at the beginning of the year, the [US-Israeli] "Ramadan War," annual increases in wages and energy prices, and finally the naval blockade that hindered import and export chains. War's Impact on Consumer Behavior "With the outbreak of the war, people rushed to hoard basic goods, such as food and detergents," explains Khaleghi. "Demand jumped despite there being no real shortage in the markets, and this feverish rush alone is enough to drive up prices." The damage inflicted on primary industries, led by petrochemicals, has driven up packaging costs for the food, pharmaceutical and detergent industries, transmitting the contagion of inflation from the factory to the store shelf. The Maritime Blockade's Effect The maritime blockade has made travelling to Iran a perilous mission for cargo ships. "Even the mere news of a ship being targeted immediately raises prices, let alone the existence of actual difficulties and palpable shortages that have forced the search for more expensive alternative land routes," states Khaleghi. The Wage Paradox "The decision to raise wages and salaries was intended to compensate for the effects of the removal of the preferential currency rate and to preserve the purchasing power of the working class," explains Khaleghi. "However, the increase, which seemed substantial on paper, proved entirely insufficient in reality. The result is a sharp decline in real purchasing power, which begins by devouring household savings, then preys on health, medical, and education budgets, until it ultimately impacts daily sustenance." The Vicious Cycle of Economic Decline Khaleghi warns of a vicious cycle closing in on the economy: "We are in a situation where the state itself is bearing the brunt of the economic slowdown. Tax revenues, which were supposed to offset part of the cost of the preferential currency reforms, are also shrinking. Thus, we are faced with an impossible equation: the citizen's income is melting away, the state's income is eroding, and prices continue to soar to heights unseen in decades." Standing on the Edge of an Economic Iceberg "You would think the market is alive, but it is clinically dead," says Reza, 47, a shop owner. "People come here because the market is the last free place for entertainment. They wander aimlessly, remembering the days when they used to enter shopping malls and leave with bags that filled their car trunks." Mahmoud, 37, a lecturer at a private university, offers a historical perspective: "The country used to cover its wounds with petrodollars, and now that the effect of the anaesthetic has worn off, all the ailments have surfaced at once." He adds, "What worries me is not just the price hikes, but the experts' estimates of the consequences of flawed economic policies that have not yet emerged, because they have effectively hidden behind the noise of the war. This means we are standing on the edge of an iceberg; what we see now is only the tip."

The Escalating Humanitarian Crisis in Lebanon The United Nations has doubled its call for aid to Lebanon as it bids to stem a “severe and deteriorating” humanitarian crisis brought on by four months of war with Israel. The UN's Revised Aid Appeal The UN’s humanitarian agency OCHA said on Friday that it needs nearly $640m over the next six months. In March, as the hostilities broke out in response to the United States and Israeli attacks on Iran, the UN had said $308m would be needed. Original appeal: $308m Revised appeal: $640m Amount received so far: $185m The Impact of the Conflict Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health reports that the death toll from Israeli attacks has risen to 3,526 people, with a further 10,733 wounded since March 2. More than one million people have been forced to flee their homes and remain displaced. The Strain on Essential Services “Repeated displacements, insufficient shelter capacity and limited prospects for safe return are deepening vulnerability,” OCHA said in a statement. “Affected people are rapidly exhausting their coping capacities, and essential services are under increasing strain”. The Economic and Health Consequences The UN said the economy was worsening the situation in Lebanon, as fuel and electricity prices have risen due to the effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran on global energy supplies. The strain on the healthcare economy has forced the closure of 62 hospitals that have been damaged or closed, according to OCHA. Lebanese health authorities also reported that more than 100 paramedics have been killed in the conflict. The Future Outlook Hezbollah has rejected the conditional ceasefire agreed by Lebanese and Israeli representatives in Washington on Thursday, instead demanding a full ceasefire and the full withdrawal of the Israeli army from the country.

The Climate Policy Reversal in Blue States Democratic-led states are eroding their climate policies, as red states are scaling up their clean energy deployment. California on Friday scaled back its cap-and-invest program, offering more than $3bn in free pollution allowances to polluting companies. Earlier the same week, New York weakened its groundbreaking climate law, delaying a plan to regulate carbon from 2024 until 2028 and reducing emissions-slashing targets. Rhode Island's governor, meanwhile, is attempting to roll back aggressive clean-energy programs. The Economic Justification vs. Climate Imperative The moves come as Donald Trump's administration withdraws clean energy incentives and energy savings programs, and as energy prices spike across the country amid trade disruptions stemming from the US-Israeli war on Iran. Proponents have said the changes are necessary to suppress electricity costs, but climate advocates say that view is short-sighted and misguided. "Using affordability as a cudgel to weaken climate policy is a major error that will not solve either crisis, ultimately amplifying both," said Johanna Bozuwa, executive director of the Climate and Community Institute, a left-leaning thinktank. "Extreme weather and fossil-fuel dependency directly inflate costs – for food, energy, transportation, housing, and health – across the economy for working people." American Public Opinion on Climate Change Polls show most Americans are concerned about the climate crisis. An annual poll from Gallup, published in April, shows that 44% of American adults say they worry "a great deal" about global warming – one of the highest levels of concern since 1989, when the poll was first conducted, behind only 2020 and 2017. About 65% of registered voters in the US also think global heating is driving up the cost of living, according to a report published in December by Yale University and George Mason University. Red States Lead Clean Energy Buildout In contrast to many Democratic-led jurisdictions, red states have tended to dominate renewable energy deployment in recent years. In terms of growth of utility-scale renewables, states that voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election made up eight of the top 10 in the year to March, according to Energy Information Administration data. Indiana tops the list of states with the most clean energy capacity growth in that timeframe, followed by Kentucky and Utah. More broadly, though, it is Texas that has emerged as the country's leading clean energy superpower, despite its strong ties to the oil and gas industry and unsuccessful attempts within the Republican-led legislature to curb the growth of wind and solar. Texas leads the country in wind energy production, followed by fellow red states Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas, and in March overtook California in utility-scale solar, too. The Paradox of Climate Leadership Meanwhile, the states scaling back their emissions-cutting policies have long called themselves climate leaders. When Governor Gavin Newsom of California extended his state's cap-and-invest program last year, he said: "We're doubling down on our best tool to combat Trump's assaults on clean air … by making polluters pay for projects that support our most impacted communities." The changes could end up giving more money to the fossil fuel producers and distributors who have been increasing consumers' energy prices amid the Iran war, said Bahram Fazeli, Policy Director with Communities for a Better Environment, a grassroots organization in California. "There's no reason to think that giving them more free allowances will actually help motivate them to lower gas prices more," he said. Long-Term Economic Implications New York advocates are also skeptical about whether the weakening of the 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act – which the state touted as among the strongest climate laws the country – will deliver long-term benefits. The state legislature last week reached a deal with Governor Kathy Hochul to remove a 2030 mandate to cut planet-warming pollution by 40% from 1990 levels, instead including language to aim for a 60% by 2040 if it is "feasible and cost effective" to do so. "Even though you might see bill savings initially, that's going to come at the cost of locked-in, higher energy costs in the future, as the grid has to procure more energy that would otherwise have been saved," Anna Johnson, a senior policy manager State at American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, told Baltimore's NPR affiliate WYPR; she estimates that the moves could ultimately increase households' electricity costs by $592m. The True Cost of Inaction The climate crisis itself also costs for working people, said Mar Zepeda Salazar, legislative director of the national environmental justice coalition Climate Justice Alliance. "You can lower costs on paper by weakening protections, but the bill still comes due," she said. "It just shows up in emergency rooms, insurance premiums, utility bills, lost wages, and disaster recovery – that families pay, not industry."

The Biofuel Demand SurgeDemand for biofuels is likely to leap by nearly a third this year as countries seek alternatives to expensive oil. The US, Indonesia, Brazil, Thailand and others have opted to increase biofuel use as the price of oil has jumped to nearly $100 a barrel after the US-Israeli attacks on Iran and the closure of the strait of Hormuz.Projected Growth and Environmental ConcernsIf oil supplies remain constrained, demand for biofuels could increase by 70% by 2030, according to estimates from the Transport & Environment (T&E;) thinktank. Biofuels, from oil-bearing crops and grains, currently supply about 4% of the world's transport energy demand. Expanding biofuel production without competing with food crops for land and fertiliser would be difficult to achieve, and reaching 20% of global road fuel from biofuels would require an area the size of South Africa.The Food Security ImpactThe expansion of biofuels comes at a time when fertilizer supply has been constrained by the war and prices have soared, leading to rises in the price of staple foods for some of the poorest people in many parts of the world. Biofuels compete with food crops for land, while globally about one in every 20 tonnes of fertiliser is used to produce crops for fuel. In some countries it is a lot more: a tenth of fertiliser use in the US is for biofuels, and a fifth in Indonesia.Historical Precedents and Future ProjectionsThough it is not possible to say exactly how far the expansion of biofuels could lift food prices, experts suggest it could be significant. In the food crises of 2007-08, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization estimated that biofuel use contributed between 40% and 70% of the increase in maize and soya bean prices. The US is already forecasting that food prices will rise this year by between 2.2% and 4.7%, largely owing to the impacts of the war in Iran.Sustainable AlternativesEncouraging the switch to electric vehicles could reduce demand for biofuels, as generating renewable energy is a far more efficient use of land than growing crops for fuel. Solar panels covering just 3% of the land currently used for biofuel production would generate the same amount of energy, and because of the higher efficiency of electric vehicles, that would be enough to power a third of the global car fleet.

The LeadAs the US-Israel war on Iran entered its 96th day, the conflict widened across the Gulf region, with both sides reporting new military actions. The United States military said it carried out "self-defence" strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, while Iranian media reported explosions in the area.Gulf Region Becomes New BattlegroundThe escalation spilled into neighbouring countries, with Kuwait saying its air defence systems had intercepted incoming drones and missiles, and Bahrain activating warning sirens. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) also said it had intercepted multiple Iranian missiles and drones, while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it had targeted US military assets in the region in response to US strikes.Iran's Military ResponseCiting the IRGC, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported the latest exchange began when US forces struck an Iranian oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, damaging its engine room. The IRGC said it responded by targeting a US-Israeli vessel with naval missiles before US forces struck an IRGC communications tower south of Qeshm Island.Iran's leadership has not ruled out a deal with the US, but deep mistrust and hardened positions from both sides continue to complicate negotiations. While military, religious and political leaders insist there will be no "surrender" to Washington, subtle differences remain in how key figures view a potential agreement.Diplomatic Efforts Amidst MistrustSecretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress that Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is alive and becoming "increasingly engaged" in negotiations with Washington. Khamenei has not appeared publicly since reportedly being wounded in US-Israeli strikes that killed his predecessor and father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Rubio said Washington has not offered sanctions relief in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz. The US will provide sanctions relief to Iran only in exchange for nuclear concessions, he said during a Senate hearing.US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran have been continuing, but cautioned that their outcome remains unclear. "One never knows" where the talks may lead, he said, reiterating his call for Tehran to reach a deal.Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Tehran could abandon negotiations with the US and move towards confrontation if Israeli attacks on Lebanon continue. The warning came during a conversation with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.Economic and Strategic ImplicationsAnalyst Alan Eyre said any agreement will likely need to deliver tangible benefits for both Washington and Tehran. Trump faces pressure to secure meaningful nuclear concessions to counter criticism that a deal would merely restore the status quo before the war, while Iran needs economic relief through measures such as access to frozen assets or new revenue mechanisms. Eyre noted that although the US blockade is damaging Iran's economy over time, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is creating more immediate and urgent pressure on global markets.US Military Operations in the GulfCENTCOM said an "additional wave of Iranian drones" attempted to target US forces in Kuwait, but the attack was unsuccessful. It said US air defences intercepted multiple drones and that no Americans or assets were harmed. CENTCOM said earlier on Wednesday that it had struck an Iranian ground control station on Qeshm Island in what it described as a "self-defence" operation.CENTCOM dismissed IRGC claims that Iranian missiles and drones had struck the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and a regional US airbase, saying the attacks failed to reach their targets. In a statement on X, it called the claims false and said all Iranian attacks against US forces had been unsuccessful. "US forces remain vigilant and ready to defend against unwarranted Iranian aggression," it added.Criticism of Trump's Iran PolicyDemocratic senators sharply criticised the Trump administration's handling of the war. Senator Chris Van Hollen called its foreign policy a "dumpster fire" and described the conflict as "stupid and reckless". Senator Cory Booker argued that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had handed Tehran new leverage, saying the war had caused widespread economic disruption and "never should have happened".Israel's Northern Border StrategyPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his government is pursuing "massive plans" to strengthen northern Israel and address what he called the "drone problem" along the border with Lebanon. Speaking at a government meeting, he said fortification measures extending up to 7km (4.3 miles) from the border would support Israel's campaign against Hezbollah. Netanyahu added that the government is investing $20bn to improve security and economic development in the region.Reporting from Nablus, Al Jazeera's Nida Ibrahim said criticism of Netanyahu is mounting across Israel's political spectrum, with opponents and some coalition allies accusing him of putting his political survival before broader strategic goals against Hezbollah. Ibrahim said many analysts believe Netanyahu sought to expand military operations in Beirut partly to derail US-Iran talks and that pressure from Washington may have forced him to step back, fuelling further frustration among his critics.Escalation in Lebanon and GazaAt least five people, including a child, were killed and 45 others wounded in Israeli attacks on the southern Lebanese towns of Burj Shemali, Ebba and Tibnin, according to Lebanon's Ministry of Public Health.

A Critical Juncture in US-Mediated DiplomacyRepresentatives from Lebanon and Israel convened at the US Department of State in Washington, DC, initiating a crucial two-day negotiation aimed at halting an escalating Israeli invasion. The talks represent the most significant diplomatic effort to date to resolve a conflict that has pushed Israeli forces deeper into Lebanese territory than at any point since 2000.The Strategic Divide at the Negotiation TableThe fundamental objectives of the warring parties remain sharply divergent. Lebanon is advocating for a comprehensive ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the south. This withdrawal is deemed essential to allow the return of 1.2 million displaced citizens and to give the Lebanese state the breathing room to rebuild and address the disarmament of Hezbollah.Conversely, Israel is demanding concrete guarantees regarding the disarmament of the Iranian-backed group. However, analysts note that Israel's ongoing military operations and occupation of southern Lebanon complicate this prospect, with some suggesting the strategy aims to sow internal sectarian divisions within Lebanon.The Human Cost and Territorial ShiftsThe backdrop to these negotiations is a landscape of severe devastation and shifting territorial control. The stakes are quantified by staggering human and geographic metrics:3,468 people killed in Lebanon by Israeli attacks since March 2, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health.Over 1.2 million people displaced within Lebanon due to the ongoing conflict.Israeli forces have crossed the Litani River and advanced towards the Zahrani River, breaching established buffer zones.Geopolitical Maneuvering and Internal Lebanese FracturesThe diplomatic landscape is heavily influenced by external powers and internal political divides. US President Donald Trump has intervened multiple times to announce ceasefires, recently stating on Truth Social that troops would be turned back. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued to order strikes, including on Beirut’s southern suburbs.Regionally, Iran—whose leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint US-Israeli attack in February—is attempting to fold the Lebanese theater into a broader ceasefire. Meanwhile, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar are working behind the scenes to unify Lebanon's leadership. Domestically, Lebanon is split: President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam support direct talks as the only option, while Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Hezbollah insist on indirect negotiations and demand an end to attacks first.The Fragile Future of the Southern BorderDespite the ongoing diplomatic engagements in Washington, a lasting ceasefire remains elusive. The exclusion of Hezbollah from direct talks, coupled with Israel's stated intent to continue military operations, suggests that these negotiations may yield temporary de-escalations rather than a permanent resolution. The coming weeks will test whether US and Gulf-led diplomatic pressure can overcome the deep-seated security dilemmas driving the conflict on the ground.

The Ceasefire Announcement US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to halt attacks following indirect talks through intermediaries. Trump claimed he had spoken with both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and, through 'highly placed representatives', Hezbollah. The Proposed Ceasefire Terms According to statements from Lebanon's embassy in Washington, the proposal would see Hezbollah stop attacks on Israel in exchange for Israel halting strikes on Beirut and its southern suburbs. Trump also said Netanyahu had agreed to pull back any Israeli troops preparing to attack the Lebanese capital, Beirut. The Impact on the War on Iran The announcement is significant because Iran has stated that one of its conditions for any agreement on ending the war with the US is that Israel withdraw from Lebanon. Hezbollah, an Iran-backed armed group based in Lebanon, began firing on northern Israel after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran at the end of February. The Response from Hezbollah and Israel Hezbollah's chief Naim Qassem previously dismissed direct, US-mediated talks with Israel, calling them 'futile'. However, Lebanon's embassy in Washington released a detailed statement saying Hezbollah had accepted a US proposal for a 'mutual cessation of attacks'. The Significance of Trump's Communications with Hezbollah This is unprecedented, as no US president has ever spoken with Hezbollah, either directly or via intermediaries. Trump's communication with Hezbollah could be a breakthrough in Hezbollah-US relations since the 1980s.

The Lead US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has been discussing key foreign policy issues for Washington at a defence summit in Singapore. Hegseth's Comments on China On Saturday at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Hegseth commented on America’s main rival, China, as well as Iran, NATO and Taiwan — a major point of contention between Washington and Beijing. “There is rightful alarm regarding China’s historic military buildup and the expansion of its military activities in the region and beyond,” Hegseth said. The Data Analysis The US and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, rattling global markets, triggering an energy crisis and causing shortages of critical US munitions, including Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, which cost about $12m each. In a report published on Wednesday, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said it would take two years — and in some cases more than three — to replenish four critical munitions used heavily during the war. The Impact Analysis Hegseth used his speech to call on US allies in the region to increase defence spending in an attempt to offset China’s growing power. “A Pacific dominated by any hegemon would unravel the regional balance of power,” Hegseth said. “No state, including China, can impose its hegemony and hold the security or prosperity of our nation and our allies in question.” The Prediction Hegseth also discussed Iran — a key issue for much of the world as well as the US. Tehran and Washington are believed to be close to signing a memorandum of understanding to bring the war to a permanent end. Hegseth, who has played a key role in the US-Israeli war on Iran as defence secretary, warned that the US would resume attacks on Iran if a satisfactory deal isn’t reached.