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The Oil Price Spike Fuels a Global Biofuel Push After the US‑Israeli attacks on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices jumped to nearly $100 a barrel. In response, the US, Indonesia, Brazil, Thailand and other nations are accelerating policies to blend more biofuels with fossil fuels, aiming to cushion transport sectors from volatile oil markets. Projected Biofuel Demand Growth and Fertiliser Use Demand for biofuels is expected to rise by ~30% in 2026, with a potential 70% increase by 2030 if oil supplies stay constrained. Current biofuels supply about 4% of global transport energy demand; plans could lift this to 6%. Globally, 1 in 20 tonnes of fertiliser is used for fuel crops; in the US this share is a tenth, and in Indonesia a fifth. Reaching a 20% biofuel share would require land the size of South Africa. The US forecasts food price inflation of 2.2%–4.7% this year, partly linked to the oil‑driven biofuel surge. Implications for Food Prices, Land Use and Emissions Biofuel production competes directly with food crops for arable land and fertiliser, intensifying pressure on staple‑food markets. Historical analysis of the 2007‑08 food crises attributes 40%–70% of maize and soybean price spikes to biofuel demand. Moreover, biofuels emit roughly 16% more CO₂ than the fossil fuels they replace due to deforestation and land‑use change. Kädi Ristkok, energy and climate director at Transport & Environment (T&E), warned that “governments are playing a dangerous game by promoting food for fuel.” The organization stresses that electrification and renewable electricity would deliver the same energy with far lower land and carbon footprints. What Lies Ahead for Energy Policy and Food Security Analysts such as Simon Suzan at T&E suggest that without decisive shifts toward electric vehicles and solar power, biofuel expansion could exacerbate food inflation and environmental degradation. A modest solar deployment covering just 3% of current biofuel‑producing land could power a third of the global car fleet, offering a more sustainable alternative. The trajectory of biofuel policy will hinge on how quickly governments can balance short‑term energy security with long‑term food stability and climate goals.

The latest Profundo analysis, commissioned by Rainforest Foundation Norway, reveals that accelerating extraction of critical minerals, biofuels and pulp is compounding traditional threats like cattle ranching and logging, driving the world’s largest rainforests toward a breaking point.Report Highlights Escalating Resource Extraction Threats to RainforestsThe study tracks commodity pressures across the Amazon, Congo Basin and Southeast Asia, showing how mining, oil‑gas expansion, and biofuel agriculture together create a “compounding assault” on forest ecosystems.Mining footprints are larger than previously estimated due to water pollution and infrastructure sprawl.Between 10% and one‑third of global forests are already affected, with the share set to rise.Key interviewees include Ingrid Turgen and Barbara Kuepper of Rainforest Foundation Norway.Quantified Deforestation Projections and Commodity PressuresSpecific forecasts illustrate the scale of upcoming loss:57,000 sq km of Amazon forest could disappear by 2034 if Brazil’s 10.2% beef‑production increase proceeds.Open‑pit gold mines already cover 1.9 m ha in the Amazon; projected demand could add 375 sq km of deforestation by 2028.Electric‑vehicle battery minerals may trigger 1,500‑4,700 sq km of forest loss by 2050.Biofuel demand could require an extra 52 m ha of cropland, clearing up to 35,000 sq km of Amazon vegetation by 2035.Broader Ecological and Climate ImplicationsThe combined pressures erode the forests’ ability to regulate temperature, store carbon, recycle water and sustain biodiversity. Secondary effects extend up to 50 km from mines, disproportionately affecting Indigenous territories and critical carbon sinks such as the Cuvette Centrale peatlands.Future Outlook and Policy RecommendationsAuthors stress that recycling alone cannot offset the scale of demand. They propose:Greater transparency and traceability in global supply chains.Stronger enforcement of environmental regulations in extraction zones.Demand‑reduction strategies in consumer markets, especially for fast‑fashion viscose, paper‑based packaging, and biofuel feedstocks.Without decisive action, the report warns that the Amazon, Congo and Southeast Asian rainforests could face “a pretty bleak scenario” within the next decade.

Ember reports that low‑emissions energy sources satisfied all newly created electricity demand in 2025, leaving no room for fossil fuels to grow. Renewables Fully Satisfy 2025’s New Electricity Demand Solar power led the charge, delivering roughly three‑quarters of the 849 TWh of additional demand, while wind covered almost the remainder. Together with biofuels, hydro‑electricity and nuclear, low‑emissions sources accounted for a record 42.6% of the 31,779 TWh total electricity consumed worldwide in 2025. Numbers That Reveal the Scale of the Shift Solar contribution: ~637 TWh (≈75% of new demand) Wind contribution: ~212 TWh (≈25% of new demand) Demand growth 2025: 2.8%, matching the decade average Emissions per kWh: fell to 458 g CO₂e in 2025, down from 543 g CO₂e a decade earlier Global CO₂ emissions 2025: 38.4 bn tonnes; without solar and wind the total would have been 4 bn tonnes higher Europe’s clean‑energy share: 71% of electricity generated Why the Energy Landscape Is Transforming Several forces converged to produce the 2025 tipping point. The Russian invasion of Ukraine accelerated renewable roll‑outs in Europe, while China and India collectively reduced fossil‑generated electricity for the first time this century. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also noted a slowdown in oil and gas demand, reflecting broader market pressures. Analysts caution that the achievement reflects average‑year conditions. Rahmat Poudineh of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies warned that extreme weather could still expose gaps in system flexibility, while Yannis Bassias of Amphore Energy emphasized the continuing need for gas and storage to ensure grid stability. What the Next Decade May Hold for Fossil Power Nicolas Fulghum, Ember’s senior energy and climate data analyst, projects that by 2035 fossil fuels could lose 10‑20% of their share in the electricity market, ceding dominance to clean sources. The IEA, however, argues that a 25% reduction in fossil electricity by 2030 is required to stay within the 1.5°C Paris target, a more aggressive timeline than Ember’s current outlook. Uncertainties remain. Geopolitical shocks—such as the ongoing Gulf crisis—could further depress fossil demand, yet structural reliance on gas for baseload power in Europe, Japan and Korea may persist. The balance between rapid renewable growth and the need for flexible, low‑carbon backup will shape policy and investment decisions through the 2030s.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced a temporary waiver allowing the sale of a higher-ethanol fuel blend, known as E15, in an effort to alleviate soaring gas prices that have been exacerbated by the ongoing Iran war.E15, which contains a higher percentage of ethanol than standard gasoline, has been prohibited during warm weather months due to concerns over its potential to worsen smog. However, the EPA's decision, supported by the US agriculture secretary, Brooke Rollins, aims to provide relief to consumers at the pump.“President Trump is unleashing American Energy Dominance, and today’s action will directly lower prices at the pump and gives a clear demand signal to our domestic biofuels producers,” Rollins stated.The summer waiver for E15 has become a recurring measure in recent years, with both Republicans and Democrats advocating for its permanent implementation to reduce fuel costs. Currently, E15 is already permitted in several states, including Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri, Wisconsin, and most of South Dakota.However, not all experts are convinced that the move will significantly lower gas prices. Kenneth Gillingham, a professor at the Yale School of the Environment, pointed out that E15 is not widely available in all states, and some areas lack the necessary infrastructure or sufficient ethanol supply to support increased use.Gillingham also highlighted potential risks associated with E15, particularly for older vehicles, boats, and all-terrain vehicles, due to its higher corrosive ethanol content. Additionally, increased corn usage for ethanol production could lead to higher costs for animal feed and, subsequently, grocery prices.“I think it’s difficult to see when the ledger’s settled how this is a benefit for US consumers,” said Jason Hill, a professor at the University of Minnesota.The decision has also drawn criticism over its potential environmental impacts, with concerns about increased ozone issues, respiratory problems, and even premature deaths.While the oil industry has generally opposed the expansion of E15, citing costly biofuel blending and potential price increases, the American Petroleum Institute has expressed support for the temporary waiver, emphasizing its role in ensuring affordable and reliable energy for American consumers.