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Investors priced in the possibility of a cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, sending the world’s key oil benchmarks lower and sparking a broad rally across Asian stock markets.Oil Prices Slide as Peace Draft Sparks Market OptimismThe market reaction followed a draft peace agreement circulated by Donald Trump and reported by Axios, which suggested a 60‑day extension of the cease‑fire. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted “mounting optimism about an end to the conflict,” shifting sentiment away from stagflation concerns.Price Movements: Brent Down 1.3% and WTI Down 1.4%Brent crude futures fell 1.3% to $91.54 a barrel, on track for a 17% monthly decline since early May.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 1.4% to $87.64 a barrel, 7% below the week’s peak of $94.70.Regional Market Reactions: Asian Gains and European StabilityJapan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.5%.South Korea’s KOSPI climbed 3.6%.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.9%.China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.45%.UK’s FTSE 100 opened 0.1% higher; the broader Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.3%.U.S. S&P 500 had risen 0.6% the previous day, pushing the index to a new record high.U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields fell to 4.45%, supporting bond price gains.What the Next Weeks Could Hold for Energy MarketsIf the tentative cease‑fire holds, oil demand forecasts could be revised upward, limiting further price declines. However, lingering uncertainty over the strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear ambitions means volatility may persist. Traders will watch for official confirmations from the U.S. vice‑president JD Vance and any concrete steps to reopen the strait, which could stabilize supply and temper market swings.

Trump's Direct Intervention in Fuel CostsPresident Donald Trump has announced a direct intervention in the US energy market, pledging to suspend the 18-cent federal petrol tax to counteract record-high fuel prices exacerbated by the ongoing instability surrounding the Iran ceasefire.The 18-Cent Federal Tax Suspension ProposalTrump stated on Monday that the tax would be removed for a "period of time," with the intent to phase it back in once gas prices stabilize. He characterized the move as a necessary cushion for the American consumer amid the geopolitical fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran.The $2.5bn Infrastructure Gap and Oil Market VolatilityThe proposed suspension would temporarily halt the collection of approximately $2.5 billion in federal revenue, which is currently allocated for US roadway infrastructure. Concurrently, oil markets are reacting sharply; Brent crude futures surged 3.13% to $104.46 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $98.32. This volatility is reflected on Wall Street, with major oil and gas giants like Exxon (up 3.1%) and Chevron (up 1.7%) seeing significant gains in midday trading.Congressional Gridlock and Regional Price DisparitiesWhile the President claims the authority to waive the tax, legal experts and analysts point out that suspending a federal tax requires an act of Congress. This creates a legislative hurdle, though Republican Senator Josh Hawley has pledged to introduce legislation to facilitate the suspension. Analysts suggest the impact will vary by region, potentially reinforcing price differentiation between states that have already reduced their own petrol taxes.The Future of Airline Stability and Consumer ReliefThe move signals a potential long-term struggle for the airline industry, which has already faced pressure from jet fuel costs. With Spirit Airlines ceasing operations due to "massive and sustained increases in fuel prices" and United Airlines raising fares by 20%, the suspension of the petrol tax offers a temporary reprieve for consumers but does not address the structural fuel costs facing the aviation sector.

Iran says the United States is demanding “unreasonable” and “one‑sided” terms to end the war, a claim echoed by foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei. Donald Trump dismissed Tehran’s response as “totally unacceptable,” a stance that sent global oil prices sharply higher.The Standoff Over Iran’s Peace ProposalBaghaei told a Monday press conference that Iran’s offer to end the conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and release frozen Iranian assets was “legitimate and generous.” He emphasized that Iran made no concessions, only demanding an end to hostilities, the lifting of the U.S. blockade, and the unfreezing of assets held abroad. The United States, via a Truth Social post, rejected the Iranian counter‑proposal without detailing its contents, reiterating that the terms were “totally unacceptable.”Oil Market Reaction to the Diplomatic ImpasseFollowing Trump’s statement, benchmark Brent crude rose 4.65% to $99.95 a barrel in Asian trade, while the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed just over four percent to $105.5 a barrel. Traders cited fears of further disruptions to oil flow through the strait, where Iran has maintained a partial blockade since March.Regional Security and Economic StakesEuropean leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, are coordinating a coalition of more than 50 countries to safeguard maritime transit in the Gulf. Baghaei warned European navies against “succumbing to U.S. and Israeli hubris,” arguing that any intervention could exacerbate price spikes and deepen the economic fallout for Gulf populations.What the Next Moves Could Mean for the GulfAnalysts note that the impasse risks prolonging the war’s economic toll, with oil markets likely to remain volatile until a mutually acceptable framework emerges. Continued diplomatic rigidity from both sides could prompt further multinational naval deployments, while a breakthrough—such as the release of frozen assets or a verified Iranian guarantee on nuclear facilities—might stabilize prices and reopen the strait for safe passage.

The Surge in Oil Prices Oil prices soared more than 6 percent on worries about prolonged supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and fears of a lengthy US siege of Iranian ports, settling at their highest levels in weeks. Market Reaction and Price Increases US crude settled up 6.95 percent at $106.88 per barrel on Wednesday, and Brent crude, the international benchmark, was up 6.08 percent, or $6.77, at $118.03 after earlier touching its highest price since June 2022. Brent crude futures for June continued to rise on Thursday to $119.94 per barrel as of 00:57 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate futures were at $107.51. The Impact of the US-Iran Conflict Oil prices continue to surge with no resolution in sight to the two-month-long US-Israel war on Iran, and as supplies of fuel remain snarled in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces have imposed a blockade on the transit of vessels and the US is besieging Iranian ports and shipping. US Response and Potential Mitigation Measures A White House official said on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump had asked US oil companies about ways to mitigate the impact of a potentially months-long siege of Iranian ports. The president and the oil executives “discussed the steps President Trump has taken to ⁠alleviate global oil markets and steps we could take to continue the current blockade for months if needed and minimize impact on American consumers,” the White House official said. Regional Impact and Economic Concerns “Prospects for any near-term resolution to the Iran conflict or a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain dim,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note on the current situation. Al Jazeera’s Barnaby Lo, reporting from Seoul, South Korea, said almost the entire Asia Pacific region is dependent on oil imports and much of those supplies come from the Middle East. “So with the price of Brent crude touching $120 a barrel, there is no doubt that is going to have a huge impact on the region. The Asian Development Bank already cutting its growth forecast for the region from 5.1 percent to 4.7 percent this year,” Lo said. UAE's OPEC Exit and Market Implications President Trump on Wednesday also welcomed the announced withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), saying, “I think it’s great”. The UAE’s President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan was “very smart” and probably wanted to go his “own way”, Trump said. “I think ultimately it’s a good thing for getting the price of gas down, getting oil down, getting everything down,” Trump added.

On day 57 of the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war, senior U.S. envoys are slated to travel to Pakistan for back‑channel talks, coinciding with the arrival of Iran’s foreign minister in Islamabad. The diplomatic push occurs against a backdrop of frozen Iranian crypto assets, fresh sanctions, an expanded U.S. carrier presence in the Gulf, and tightening energy markets.US Envoys Set to Arrive in Pakistan Amid Stalled Iran NegotiationsSteve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will depart for Islamabad on Saturday to explore a possible return to the negotiating table.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has already landed in Islamabad, signaling Pakistan’s role as a regional mediator.The talks come as U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warned that Iran still has an “open window” to abandon its nuclear ambitions.Economic Leverage: $344 Million Crypto Freeze Targets IranThe Treasury, led by Scott Bessent, froze $344 million in cryptocurrency linked to Iranian entities to increase pressure amid energy‑supply disruptions.Washington also announced sanctions on a major China‑based refinery and roughly 40 shipping firms involved in moving Iranian oil.U.S. officials ruled out any extension of waivers for Russian or Iranian oil transits, tightening the financial squeeze.Regional Diplomatic Activity and Military PosturingEuropean Council President Antonio Costa called for the immediate, unrestricted reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Pakistan’s mediators expressed “cautious optimism,” noting signs of progress despite the lack of concrete talks in Islamabad.In the Gulf, two drones launched from Iraq struck northern Kuwaiti border posts, prompting an Iraqi investigation.The U.S. now has three aircraft carriers operating in the Middle East—the first such concentration since the 2003 Iraq invasion.Energy Markets React: Oil, Gas, and Market TightnessThe International Energy Agency warned that liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets will remain “tight” through 2026‑2027.Brent crude edged above $105 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.5% to $94.40.The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, hitting an all‑time high as investors priced in both risk and the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough.What Comes Next? Scenarios for De‑Escalation or Further ConflictOptimistic scenario: Successful Pakistan‑facilitated talks lead to a renewed nuclear‑non‑proliferation framework and a phased lifting of sanctions.Stalemate scenario: Negotiations stall, prompting the U.S. to increase economic pressure and maintain its carrier presence, risking further regional confrontations.Escalation scenario: Failure to reopen Hormuz or a misstep in the Gulf could trigger broader military engagement, driving oil prices higher and deepening market volatility.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecast downward to 3.1 percent this year, citing the impact of rising tensions between the United States and Iran on energy and food costs worldwide.The downgrade comes as Iran has retaliated against US and Israeli actions by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil and gas supplies, and attacking energy infrastructure in the region. This has driven up oil prices and squeezed oil and gas supplies, affecting countries reliant on these imports.The IMF's new forecast represents a slowdown from its earlier projection of 3.3 percent growth, made before the escalation of tensions. It also marks a decline from 3.4 percent growth in the previous year. The fund warns that some regions and countries will be hit harder than others.Iran's economic outlook saw one of the largest country-level revisions, with a forecast contraction of 6.1 percent in 2026, down from an initial small growth forecast. The IMF also cut GDP growth forecasts for Saudi Arabia from 4.5 percent to 3.1 percent.The IMF's Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that the current hostilities in the Middle East pose significant policy trade-offs, including fighting inflation and preserving growth. The fund anticipates higher global inflation at 4.4 percent, up 0.6 percentage points from its January forecast.Experts warn that continued strains in the Strait of Hormuz could worsen inflationary pressures. For instance, a sustained $60 increase in gas prices above the average price could put the US firmly in recession territory.Oil prices have dropped on hopes of resumed talks between Iran and the US, with Brent crude futures falling to $95.02 per barrel and West Texas intermediate crude dropping to $91.84. However, prices remain much higher than before the Iran war.

The collapse of talks between the US and Iran has sent shockwaves through global markets, fuelling fears of a prolonged energy crisis and rising inflation. The failure to reach a peace deal has left large numbers of oil tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf, with oil prices fluctuating wildly in response to the uncertainty.US Vice-President JD Vance has blamed the collapse of the talks on Tehran's refusal to abandon its nuclear weapons programme, while Iranian sources have hit back at what they describe as 'excessive' demands from Washington. The stalemate has raised concerns about the long-term impact on the global economy, with governments and central banks warning of higher inflation and interest rates.Mohamed El-Erian, an adviser to Allianz, has cautioned that uncertainty will continue to dominate assessments of the financial impact from the conflict. 'Absent a swift resumption of negotiations, the immediate reaction of financial markets when they open for the trading week will be to push oil prices higher and borrowing costs higher,' he said.The International Monetary Fund and World Bank's spring meetings in Washington will focus on the war's impact on the global economy, with the IMF's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, indicating that the fund will present three scenarios predicting lower economic growth and higher inflation. The IMF is also expected to highlight the impact on vulnerable economies.In the short term, oil prices have ended the week lower, with Brent crude at $94.26 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude at $95.63 a barrel. However, global stock markets have rebounded after a temporary ceasefire was announced, with the S&P; 500 close to its level before the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began.

President Donald Trump issued a stark warning on Sunday, giving Tehran until Tuesday night to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges. The message, posted on his Truth Social platform, was laced with profanity and a deadline of 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad‑Bagher Ghalibaf, responded on social media, accusing the United States of “reckless moves” that would set the entire region ablaze and turn it into “living hell.” The latest escalation follows the rescue of a second U.S. crew member from a downed F‑15E fighter that crashed in southwestern Iran, an operation that saw American special forces and Iranian troops racing against each other in mountainous terrain. Trump has repeatedly shifted the deadline for Iran, extending it at least twice. In his expletive‑laden post he warned, “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH!” Financial markets reacted instantly: the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose 1.86 % to over $112 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed above $110. The surge underscores how geopolitical flashpoints can quickly translate into higher energy costs for consumers worldwide. Trump also hinted at a possible diplomatic breakthrough, telling Fox News there was a “good chance” of an agreement on Monday. Yet he added, “If they don’t make a deal and fast, I’m considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil.” Legal scholars warned that targeting civilian infrastructure would breach the Geneva Conventions. Yale professor of international law Oona A. Hathaway noted that the president offered no justification to reclassify power plants, bridges, or steel factories as legitimate military targets, and that any such attacks would likely constitute war crimes. Iranian authorities estimate that the ongoing U.S.–Israeli campaign has damaged roughly 81,000 civilian sites, including 61,000 homes, 19,000 commercial facilities, 275 medical centres, and nearly 500 schools. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that the coalition has destroyed about 70 % of Iran’s steel production capacity, citing its alleged use in missile manufacturing. In retaliation, Iran has intensified attacks on Gulf shipping and infrastructure. Over the weekend Iranian drones struck a petrochemical complex in Bahrain, igniting thick black smoke, and hit multiple Kuwait Petroleum facilities, causing fires and “significant material losses” at power and desalination plants. The most dramatic recent strike was the demolition of Iran’s unfinished 136‑metre B1 suspension bridge, a $400 million project meant to link Tehran and Karaj. The attack killed 13 people and injured 95, prompting the bridge’s engineer to lament the loss of a symbol of national pride. Trump posted a video of the bridge’s destruction, framing it as a response to Iran’s alleged unwillingness to negotiate. He later told Axios that the U.S. had been “close to an agreement” but that Iran’s demand to meet “in five days” was a pretext for the attack. Domestic criticism was swift. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer denounced the president’s rhetoric as “unhinged” and warned that such threats could alienate allies and amount to war crimes. International law experts reiterated that civilian objects—such as power plants, bridges, and hospitals—are protected under the Geneva Conventions. Any deliberate targeting of these assets for bargaining leverage would violate the conventions and could trigger legal accountability for the United States and any cooperating parties.

Oil prices experienced a significant surge, rising more than $5, after President Donald Trump stated that the United States would continue its military operations against Iran. This development has heightened investor concerns about potential sustained disruptions to global oil supplies.Brent crude futures saw a notable increase, rising $6.33, or 6.3%, to $107.49 per barrel early on Thursday. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $5.28, or 5.3%, to $105.40 per barrel. These gains followed an earlier decline of more than $1 in both benchmarks prior to Trump's televised address to the nation.The recent escalation in tensions between the US and Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, in retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks. This strategic move has disrupted approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, precipitating the world's most significant energy crisis in decades.Trump emphasized that the US military is nearing its objectives in the conflict, which he expects to conclude within two to three weeks. His remarks have contributed to increased uncertainty in financial markets.Asian stocks were severely impacted following Trump's speech. Most Southeast Asian countries, which heavily rely on oil imports, are particularly vulnerable to the sharp rise in oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict. The MSCI gauge of EM Asia equities experienced a 2.3% decline, while regional currencies weakened by 0.2%.Notably, South Korea's main stock market, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), plummeted by 4.2% after initially gaining nearly 2%. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung urged parliament to promptly pass a 26.2 trillion won ($17.3bn) supplementary budget to bolster the economy during what he described as the worst energy security threat caused by the Middle East crisis.Other Asian markets also saw significant declines, with Singapore's main stock market, the Singapore Exchange (SGX), slipping 0.8%, and Malaysia's benchmark index falling 1%. Markets in Indonesia and Taiwan declined by about 1% and 1.4%, respectively. Stocks in China and Hong Kong also fell, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite index dropping 0.53% and China's blue-chip CSI300 Index losing 0.74%.