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The Rise of Mega-Donors in UK Politics Keir Starmer may be relaxed about allowing millions from cryptocurrency billionaires to flow into Reform UK's coffers, but Labour MPs are tearing their hair out every time the quarterly data on electoral finance drops. The Scale of Donations The latest figures show a further £7m went to Reform UK from just two men, Christopher Harborne and Ben Delo. To put that in context, Labour managed to raise £6m from all private donors in the first quarter of 2024 – just before the last election, when the party's fundraising power was at its peak. The Data Analysis Harborne, a crypto and aviation fuel investor based in Thailand, has given £15m to Reform and £5m to Farage personally. Delo, who co-founded the BitMEX trading platform, is the UK's youngest self-made billionaire and has given significant donations to Reform UK. The Impact Analysis The mood among many backbenchers about Reform's riches is panicked. 'It is unsustainable,' says another Labour MP, who would back any amendment to the government's new electoral finance bill to broaden the cap on overseas donors to all donors regardless of location. The Prediction Despite the opportunity of the new electoral finance bill, there is very little optimism among campaigners that the government will change its mind about a cap, or even an annual spending limit. However, some believe Andy Burnham, who backs electoral reform and a more consensual politics, may be more sympathetic to the idea of getting big money out of Westminster once and for all.

The Misguided Pursuit of Stability The article questions whether politics should always be dominated by economics, particularly in a capitalist democracy like Britain. It challenges the assumption that governments and voters must prioritize market forces and fiscal responsibility above all else. The Event Details: A History of Austerity and Its Consequences The article provides a historical context for the UK's economic challenges, citing examples of Labour governments being forced to implement spending cuts to appease bond markets and international institutions. It argues that this approach has led to instability and that the concept of "stability" is often defined narrowly by financial markets, neglecting social, climate, and democratic stability. The Data Analysis: The Impact of Austerity Policies The article highlights the negative consequences of austerity policies implemented since 2010, including social instability, climate instability, and declining public services. It cites examples of business interests benefiting from instability and government bailouts. The Impact Analysis: The Need for a New Approach The article argues that Labour's approach to governing needs to change to address the country's economic and social challenges. It suggests that a more proactive and investment-focused approach could lead to better economic outcomes and increased stability. The Prediction: A Potential Shift in UK Politics The article concludes that there are signs of a potential shift in UK politics, with Labour leaders like Andy Burnham and Rachel Reeves advocating for a more bold and investment-focused approach. It suggests that this could lead to a more equitable economy and increased stability, but notes that convincing skeptical business interests and markets will be a significant challenge.

The LeadIn a significant intervention in UK politics, former Prime Minister Tony Blair has warned the Labour party against removing Keir Starmer as leader without having a proper policy agenda to replace him. The intervention comes as Blair launches criticism of the Conservative government's time in office, highlighting the ongoing ideological battle within Labour as it seeks to define its identity in opposition.Blair's Warning to Labour LeadershipSpeaking at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change's Future of Britain Conference, the former Labour leader emphasized the dangers of removing a sitting party leader without a clear alternative direction. This represents a notable moment of political intervention from Blair, who has maintained a complex relationship with the party since leaving office in 2007.The photograph capturing Blair and Starmer in conversation underscores the personal and political connection between the two Labour figures, despite their different approaches to party leadership and policy direction.The Ideological CrossroadsThis intervention places Blair at the center of the ongoing debate about Labour's identity and direction. The party appears to be at a crossroads, with traditional Labour supporters potentially seeking a more leftward direction, while others advocate for a more centrist approach similar to that pursued during Blair's tenure.Blair's comments suggest he believes Starmer represents a viable path for Labour to return to government, though the party's internal divisions continue to pose challenges to its electoral prospects.Political Implications for StarmerFor Starmer, Blair's public backing represents both an opportunity and a potential liability. While it may lend credibility to his leadership approach among moderate voters, it could alienate those Labour members who have distanced themselves from Blair's New Labour legacy.The timing of Blair's intervention is significant, coming as the Conservative government faces increasing pressure and scrutiny, potentially creating an opening for Labour to make electoral gains.Future of Labour's Political StrategyLooking ahead, Labour faces critical decisions about its policy platform and political strategy. Blair's warning suggests that any leadership change should be accompanied by substantive policy development rather than merely personnel changes.The party will need to balance its traditional principles with the evolving political landscape, potentially drawing on elements of Blair's centrist approach while addressing contemporary challenges that were not prominent during his time in office.

The Lead: Streeting’s Tobacco Analogy Sparks a New Debate on Youth Online SafetyLabour front‑bencher Wes Streeting has called for social‑media platforms to be regulated like the tobacco industry, arguing that a ban for users under 16 is essential to protect children’s health. The government is set to close its 12‑week consultation on age limits within days, putting the issue at the forefront of UK politics.The Call to Treat Social Media Like TobaccoSpeaking publicly for the first time since leaving the cabinet, Streeting said: “Social media should be treated like tobacco – it’s extremely addictive, bad for our health, and big tech is borrowing the big tobacco playbook to avoid regulation.” He framed the proposal as “the start, not the end” of a broader effort to reclaim control from tech giants.Numbers Behind the Health Concerns454 doctors surveyed by the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges; half reported treating a child at least weekly whose distress was linked to online content.A separate survey of 60 paediatricians found:49% flagged self‑harm and suicidal tendencies as the top worry.45% highlighted bullying and peer conflict.39% cited anxiety, depression and other mental‑health issues.Doctors described a “wave of radicalised children” and incidents of suicide pacts and pet killings after exposure to harmful content.Political Stakes of a Youth Social Media BanThe proposal arrives as Streeting is seen as a potential successor to Prime Minister Keir Starmer in any future Labour leadership contest. His stance is drawing both support and resistance within the party, with some colleagues warning that a ban could push children toward the dark web or leave them ill‑prepared for digital life at 16.What a Partial Ban Could Mean for the UKAge‑based restrictions on high‑risk features such as livestreaming, location sharing and infinite scrolling.Limits on personalised algorithmic feeds for under‑16s.Potential curfews on screen time and mandatory time‑limit tools.Extended regulations to cover AI chatbots and certain gaming services for users under 13.Calls from groups like the NSPCC, Girlguiding and the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health for broader bans on advertising, profiling and manipulative design.Forecasting the Next Steps in Digital RegulationThe consultation closes on Tuesday, with ministers promising a response this summer. If a ban is adopted, the UK could become the first major Western nation to enforce a hard age limit, prompting other governments to revisit Australia’s model. Industry players are likely to lobby for lighter measures, while child‑welfare organisations will push for stricter controls, setting the stage for a prolonged policy battle over the digital age of consent.

The Crisis Facing Keir Starmer's Leadership Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing the biggest crisis of his leadership after Labour's bruising council election losses caused panic inside the party. As Nigel Farage and Reform UK gain ground, we examine why Starmer's authority appears to be slipping before any formal challenge has even begun and whether Britain is entering another period of political instability. The Impact of Council Election Losses The losses have raised concerns about Starmer's ability to lead the party and maintain stability in British politics. With Reform UK gaining momentum, the situation is becoming increasingly challenging for Starmer. The Future of Labour and UK Politics As the situation continues to unfold, it remains to be seen how Starmer will address the challenges facing his leadership and whether Labour can recover from these losses. One thing is certain, however: the outcome will have significant implications for the future of UK politics. Credits and Connections Kieren Andrieu (@kieran_andrieu), Political Economist Episode credits: This episode was produced by Noor Wazwaz and Sari el-Khalili, with Spencer Cline, Tuleen Barakat, Catherine Nouhan and our host, Malika Bilal. It was edited by Tamara Khandakar. Our sound designer is Alex Roldan. Our video editors are Hisham Abu Salah and Mohannad al-Melhem. Alexandra Locke is The Take's executive producer. Connect with us: @AJEPodcasts on X, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube

The Rise of AI-Generated Hate OperationsScroll through any Facebook feed in Britain and, between the baby announcements and petty neighbourhood beefs, you're likely to come across an account with a union jack profile picture and a vague, generic name like Britain Today. These accounts – and there are hundreds, possibly thousands of them – present themselves as the work of British patriots. In one typical, AI-generated video, a middle-aged man claims his local cafe "has stopped serving pork, bacon and sausages just to avoid offending people". Another post from the same account includes a sepia-tinted set of images of Victorian London, mourning a time when the city "was English, first-world and beautiful". Alongside this type of reactionary nostalgia, it's not unusual to see memes that call Islam a "cancer", decry Muslims praying in public as an "invasion of the west" or promote the "great replacement theory".The Financial Incentives Behind AI Hate ContentFor the past seven months, I have been investigating who is really behind pages like these. The answer, it turns out, is often young, entrepreneurial men from south Asia. They tend to have zero interest in UK politics, but the content they create often boosts far-right talking points in Britain and contributes to the increasingly hostile atmosphere for immigrants and British Muslims. They're part of a booming cottage industry producing commercial AI slop.The financial incentives for creating this kind of content are huge, particularly for creators in the global south. At the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, we looked in detail at two very successful "sloperations" targeting British audiences from Pakistan and Sri Lanka. They make money from the online ads that Meta places next to high-performing content. Meta shares a proportion of the ad revenue with the creators and also makes direct payments to creators to reward posts that receive a lot of engagement.Once you hone your algorithmic rage bait, there's very good money to be made from slop. The Pakistani creator, a devout Muslim who we are not naming for his own safety, told us he makes $1,500 (£1,119) a month from one of his pages alone; Geeth Sooriyapura, the Sri Lankan creator, claimed to have made $300,000 over the course of his Facebook career. We weren't able to verify these figures, but both men were certainly making many times the average income in their countries.The Economic Impact of AI-Generated PropagandaTheir success represents the seductive promise of "passive income" culture, a pervasive modern gospel that says you should quit your job and make easy money online. The proponents of this philosophy also often sell courses as an additional revenue stream: Sooriyapura claimed that 2,500 people, mainly other Sri Lankans, have graduated from his content academy.Rightwing propaganda and Islamophobia are, of course, not new. But two key structural factors have made it particularly pervasive on social media.The Technological and Policy EnablersFirst, the wide availability of generative AI tools. These are used at every stage of the content creation process: to brainstorm ideas, to write captions and, most importantly, to create compelling images and videos. This is particularly helpful if, like the Pakistani creator, you do not speak English well. In one video we reviewed from Sooriyapura's Facebook course, he told his students that AI-generated videos can help political content go viral up to 10 times faster.Second is Meta's retreat from content moderation. Over the past couple of years, the major social platforms have made mass redundancies on the trust and safety teams that monitored and took down harmful content. This was partly motivated by pressure from the Trump administration, which believed that platforms had engaged in heavy-handed censorship of content during the Biden presidency.Social media companies justify the moderation job cuts by pointing to their use of AI to find harmful content more efficiently. But our reporting shows there is masses of deeply offensive content on there which anyone could find in a few minutes, if they bothered to look.The Future of Online Hate Speech and Platform AccountabilityAfter we spoke to the Pakistani creator, he said it was a "good thing" we had informed him about the nature of his posts and he deleted many of them. Sooriyapura told us that he did not encourage his students to "spread violence" and that he just educates "people on Facebook monetisation and audience-targeting".The Pakistani creator didn't cover his tracks particularly well. It took me a couple of hours and a little help from Osint Industries, a platform that collates information on social media accounts, to definitively confirm that the person who ran the Islamophobic slop account also had personal accounts in his own name sharing verses from the Qur'an. These are actions that Meta easily could have taken itself. But why would it spend good money implementing its own policies when there is so little political or regulatory pressure to do so?When we contacted Meta in both these cases, it took down many of their pages and sent a one-line statement: "We have clear community standards that prohibit hate speech, harassment, harmful misinformation and inauthentic behaviour and we have removed these accounts for violating our policies." I've been a tech journalist long enough to have been through this process with Meta and other social platforms many times before. The Sri Lanka network is, depressingly, back up and running, having faced minimal consequences after a bit of downtime.Meta can, and should, be doing more to take these kinds of accounts down. But as long as its core product is an algorithmic feed that financially rewards content that provokes extreme emotions, others will always appear in its place.

The Rise of Andy Burnham in UK PoliticsWith UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer under pressure from within his own party to announce his resignation, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has announced an ambitious plan of his own – to win a parliamentary seat in the northern English town Ashton-in-Makerfield. According to his supporters, he is the best candidate to replace Starmer by the time of the Labour Party's next annual conference in September.Many in the party are hungry for a change following a series of missteps, culminating in a disastrous showing in local elections in early May. Despite winning an overwhelming majority in the 2024 general election, Labour languishes in the polls, often coming second to the right-wing Reform party. According to Ipsos, Starmer is the most unpopular prime minister since polling began in the late 1970s.Burnham's Political Journey: From Insider to OutsiderAnalysts say Burnham has appeal because of his apparent distance from the "Westminster bubble." That perception was consolidated in February when, in a move seen by many as protecting a vulnerable Starmer, Labour's ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) prevented Burnham from standing in the Manchester Gorton and Denton by-election, which was eventually won by the Green Party.Burnham, whose speech is peppered with northern colloquialisms, leans into his outsider status. But he has also served as a prominent member of Labour's front bench, both in power and opposition. Before winning the Manchester mayoralty in 2017, he served as Chief Secretary to the Treasury and later Secretary of State for Health under Gordon Brown, giving him a front-line role in managing the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and NHS reform debates during a period of tightening public spending.He also twice challenged for the party's leadership. Firstly, in 2010, after Gordon Brown resigned following Labour's general election defeat, he entered the contest only to finish fourth behind winner Ed Miliband. In 2015, after Ed Miliband stepped down, he was a distant second to Jeremy Corbyn.The "King of the North" and His Political ImpactHis disillusionment with mainstream politics began in 2009, when he was culture secretary. At an event marking the anniversary of the Hillsborough Disaster, in which 97 Liverpool fans were crushed to death 20 years earlier, he was heckled, prompting a campaign for an inquiry."I realised was that the entire British state had been ignoring an English city crying out for justice for 20 years. It wasn't just by accident. It was deliberate," he said in January. "I was thrown into crisis by that invitation because I was in a government that hadn't done anything for the Liverpool supporters and the city of Liverpool."From his victory in 2017 to his re-elections in 2021 and 2024, Burnham has focused on expanding devolved powers for the city region, including greater control over transport, housing and skills funding. His tenure has also been marked by the introduction of bus franchising reforms, the so-called Bee Network, designed to bring services back under public control, alongside initiatives addressing homelessness and rough sleeping.His high-profile clashes with Westminster during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly over funding for local restrictions in Greater Manchester, led sections of the press to dub him the "King of the North," a moniker that first emerged humorously in 2020 but has come to be viewed more seriously as his national profile has grown.Burnham's Stances on Key Global IssuesBurnham's conflicts with Labour are not confined to national issues. In late October 2023, while much of the Labour Party was offering Israel support, Burnham joined with London Mayor Sadiq Khan and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar in calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.Burnham has criticised Israel's illegal settlements and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He visited the occupied West Bank with Labour Friends of Palestine in 2012 and told the Palestine Solidarity campaign in July that year that statehood was "not a gift to be given but a right to be recognised".However, he also supports Israel. A member of Labour Friends of Israel since 2015, Burnham said during his leadership campaign then that if successful, his first state visit would be to Israel. He also dismissed the campaign to boycott Israel "spiteful".While a strident critic of the so-called War on Terror, he nevertheless voted in favour of the Iraq war, and twice against an inquiry. In 2023, he conceded that while there was a case for removing Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, "I can't justify the rage, the rhetoric, the haste with which it was done, nor the lack of a plan for the aftermath."Burnham also backs the UK's traditional network of alliances. He has criticised the UK's exit from the bloc, using an appearance at last year's conference to lambast his own party for its failure to "call out" the economic damage Brexit had done. He told a fringe event that he hoped in his lifetime to see the UK rejoin the EU. He has shown firm support to Nato, threatening to quit Jeremy Corbyn's cabinet if it decided to leave the alliance if elected.The Path to Downing Street: Challenges and OpportunitiesStanding between Burnham and 10 Downing Street is an as yet unscheduled by election and the insurgent right wing Reform Party. Leader Nigel Farage has told reporters the party will "throw absolutely everything" at the Ashton in Makerfield by-election.So, while Burnham may enjoy the title of King of the North. His coronation remains uncertain. The coming months will be critical as Burnham seeks to establish his credentials as a potential national leader while navigating the complex landscape of UK politics, both within his own party and in the wider political arena.

The upcoming Makerfield by‑election has become a stage for resurrected Brexit arguments, turning the contest into a three‑way test for Labour’s popularity, the looming leadership challenge, and the party’s strategy against the Reform Party.Makerfield By‑Election: A Triple Test for LabourThe seat is being framed as a straight popularity contest for Andy Burnham, a limber‑up round for the next Labour leadership battle, and the most important indicator of how the party might confront Reform when it matters. Keir Starmer used the pre‑by‑election moment to reiterate that Brexit has made Britain poorer, driven up migration and reduced security, while also promising a “re‑building of our relationship with Europe.” Wes Streeting labelled Brexit a “catastrophic mistake” and called for re‑joining the EU, echoing the sentiment of a majority of the public and a large share of Labour voters. Backbenchers such as Jonathan Hinder and David Lammy warned that re‑hashing the debate could alienate working‑class voters who are weary of the topic.Polling and Opinion Numbers Driving the Brexit NarrativeMore than 50% of the British public now support re‑joining the EU, according to recent polls.About 80% of Labour voters are described as “remain‑leaning,” according to the Guardian’s analysis.Labour’s recent nationalisation pledge for steel has not shifted the Brexit debate, but it has amplified scrutiny of the party’s economic credibility.Why the Brexit Re‑run Matters for UK PoliticsThe resurgence of Brexit rhetoric highlights a deeper split within Labour between traditional Eurosceptic voters and a growing pro‑EU base. If the party leans too heavily on nostalgia for pre‑Brexit arguments, it risks alienating the “remain‑adjacent” electorate that now forms a decisive bloc. Conversely, embracing a pro‑EU stance could reshape Labour’s identity and force the Reform Party to reposition itself on the sovereignty axis.What the Next General Election Could Look LikeShould Labour adopt a clear pro‑EU platform, the party may consolidate the “remain‑leaning” half of the electorate, potentially narrowing the gap with the Conservatives in marginal seats. However, a continued focus on Brexit as a political weapon could entrench voter fatigue and drive swing voters toward Reform or the Conservatives. The Makerfield result will therefore be watched as an early indicator of which strategic path Labour is likely to pursue in the run‑up to the next general election.

The Lead: Middle East Conflict Fuels Global Market TurmoilOil prices rose and global bonds wobbled on Monday, as fresh tensions in the Middle East fed inflation fears and bets that central banks will have to increase interest rates. The market volatility comes as peace talks between the US and Iran stalled in the sixth week of ceasefire, with former President Donald Trump issuing stern warnings to Tehran.The Event Details: Escalating Middle East TensionsThe market turmoil was triggered by an attack on a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates, which was blamed on Iran or its proxies. This incident occurred as peace negotiations between the US and Iran reached a critical juncture. Former President Trump took to social media to express his strong stance, writing: "For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!"In response, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei indicated that diplomatic channels remained open, stating that exchanges were "continuing through the Pakistani mediator" without providing specific details.The Data Analysis: Market Reactions and Financial ImpactThe immediate market response was significant:Brent crude rose by as much as 1.77% to $111.16 a barrel, its highest level in nearly two weeks, before easing back to $110 a barrelThe benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.631%, its highest level since February 2025, before paring back to 4.599%In the UK, the 10-year gilt yield hit as high as 5.19%, surpassing the 18-year high it reached on Friday, before falling back to 5.15%In Japan, the 10-year yield hit an almost 30-year high to 2.8%Stock markets also reacted negatively, with the Stoxx Europe 600 dropping by 0.7%, Japan's Nikkei falling about 1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declining 1%.The Impact Analysis: Global Economic ImplicationsThe volatility in global bond markets reflects growing concerns about inflationary pressures stemming from higher oil prices. The UK's bond market turbulence is being exacerbated by political instability, as traders anticipate a potential leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer from Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham later this year.Chief economist at Jefferies, Mohit Kumar, highlighted investor worries about a "shift to the left" in UK politics, noting that "UK fiscal picture has already been in a poor shape as the government was unable to deliver on spending cuts." This political uncertainty is occurring while UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and other G7 finance ministers gather in Paris to discuss the economic impact of the Middle East conflict.The Prediction: Market Outlook and Future DevelopmentsMarket analysts suggest that UK bond yields could potentially stage a recovery if investors believe political leaders will maintain fiscal discipline. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, noted that "if bond markets think they have tamed Burnham from his high-spending ways, then we could see UK yields attempt a retreat."The key test for UK markets will be whether the 10-year yield can fall below the 5% level, and if the 30-year yield backs away from 1998-level highs. Meanwhile, the situation in Japan remains precarious as the government prepares to issue fresh debt to cushion the economic impact of the Middle East conflict.