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The onset of the Iran war in February 2026 has derailed expectations of a 2026 UK interest‑rate cut, pushing mortgage rates higher and leaving many prospective home‑buyers scrambling.Iran War Triggers Higher UK Mortgage RatesBank of England analysts now anticipate at least one rate rise this year, reversing earlier forecasts of cuts in 2026. The conflict has reignited inflation concerns, keeping mortgage costs elevated for longer.Rising Rates Push Monthly Payments Up 20%Panos (36, executive sous‑chef) saw his five‑year fixed rate climb from 4.18% to 5.22%, lifting his monthly payment from £2,600 to £3,100 – a 20% increase.Jonathan (49, academic) had a rate of 3.6% withdrawn and secured a new 5.2% fixed deal, adding roughly £150 per month and extending his repayment horizon to 2049 (age 72).Average mortgage‑rate expectations for first‑time buyers have risen by over 1 percentage point since February, according to the Guardian survey.First‑Time Buyers Forced into Renting and Delayed HomeownershipPersonal testimonies illustrate the broader trend:Edward (47, Staffordshire) sold his home, only to face a Section 21 eviction and a drying rental market, while mortgage‑rate spikes made his target purchase unaffordable.Grace (27, NHS employee) saw her approved loan cut from £188,000 to £134,000, then to a reduced offer of £170,000 at 5.2%, forcing her to postpone buying.Across the sample, borrowers report a shift from buying to extended renting, with many extending tenancy periods beyond original plans.Outlook: Prolonged Rate Environment and Policy UncertaintyAnalysts expect the Bank of England to maintain a tighter monetary stance for the remainder of 2026, given persistent inflationary pressure linked to global conflict. Without a clear resolution to the Iran war, mortgage rates are likely to stay above pre‑war levels, keeping first‑time buyers on the sidelines and pressuring the UK housing market to adapt to a higher‑cost financing regime.

The Impact of MFS Collapse on Barclays Barclays is pulling back from lending to risky borrowers, as its chief executive warned of increasing numbers of fraud cases and the bank took a £228m hit from the failure of a mortgage lender. The mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions (MFS) collapsed in February amid allegations of fraud and the UK’s financial regulator has since launched an investigation into the scandal. Barclays provided banking services to MFS and said the £228m hit had pushed total credit impairment charges to £823m in the first three months of 2026, up from £643m a year earlier. The Data Analysis £228m: The hit taken by Barclays from the collapse of MFS £823m: Total credit impairment charges for Barclays in Q1 2026 £643m: Total credit impairment charges for Barclays in Q1 2025 3%: Increase in Barclays' pre-tax profit in Q1 2026 6%: Increase in Barclays' revenues in Q1 2026 The Impact Analysis The collapse of MFS, Tricolor, and First Brands have raised fears over lending standards in the $2tn private credit industry, which has come under greater scrutiny from regulators. There are concerns that the fallout could destabilise traditional banks that issue loans to the shadow banking sector. Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England and chair of the Financial Stability Board, has described the private credit industry as a “relatively opaque world” and stressed the need for transparency and solid stress testing. The Prediction Barclays' CEO, CS Venkatakrishnan, warned that fraud cases will only continue to increase in frequency, and it is essential to have strong defences. The bank's CFO, Anna Cross, stated that businesses were in “good shape” and there had been no credit deterioration in companies or consumers. The bank's quarterly income from investment banking topped £4bn for the first time, driven by 16% growth in equities income after trading volatility since the start of the Iran war on 28 February.

Background and TriggerUS and Israeli strikes on Iran have escalated into a regional conflict, prompting Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz and attack neighbouring oil producers.Resulting spikes in energy prices have fueled inflation concerns and heightened mortgage‑cost pressures in the UK.Emergency Summit DetailsThe meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, will bring together the chief executives of HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds, NatWest and Santander with Chancellor Rachel Reeves. The agenda centres on:Immediate steps to shield the most vulnerable borrowers.Early insight into consumer behaviour as the crisis unfolds.Long‑term regulatory considerations ahead of Reeves’s Mansion House speech.Economic Impact on HouseholdsThe Bank of England warns that more than 1 million UK households could see their loan‑service costs rise sharply. In parallel, the government’s mortgage charter obliges banks to support 1.6 million customers whose fixed‑rate deals expire before year‑end. Assuming an average mortgage balance of £200,000, this represents roughly £320 billion of exposure that could be destabilised without coordinated forbearance.Mortgage Market ResponseSince the conflict began, banks have withdrawn about 1,500 mortgage products and raised rates on the remaining 7,000 offerings. The rate hikes, dubbed “Trumpflation”, have pushed the Bank of England’s forecast that 5.2 million borrowers – about 58 % of all UK mortgage holders – may face higher payments by the end of 2028. This potential shock underscores the urgency of the summit’s forbearance discussion.Regulatory and Financial OutlookBank CEOs are finalising year‑end results, likely to incorporate revised UK‑growth outlooks reflecting the war‑induced volatility. Longer‑term regulatory reforms, a theme of Reeves’s previous “boot on the neck” speech, will also be on the table, aiming to balance financial stability with the Labour Party’s pro‑growth agenda.

The conflict in the Middle East is having far-reaching effects beyond the region, impacting UK mortgage rates and consumer confidence. In response to surging oil prices and inflation fears, lenders have pulled hundreds of mortgage products, replacing them with more expensive deals.According to Halifax, average UK house prices fell by 0.5% in March, with demand affected by higher mortgage rates. The Guardian wants to hear from individuals who have lost mortgage deals or been affected by rising interest rates.Share your experience by completing a short form or messaging the Guardian on WhatsApp at +447766780300. Responses can be anonymous, and submissions will be kept secure.The Guardian is seeking stories from people who have:Lost recent mortgage dealsBeen affected by rising interest ratesChanged housing plans due to the current economic climateAll submissions will be reviewed and potentially published, with the option to remain anonymous.