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Ethiopians started voting on 1 June 2026 in parliamentary and regional elections, and analysts expect Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party to dominate the results despite significant security challenges across the country.Voting Begins Amid Exclusion of Tigray and Regional ConflictMore than 50 million citizens are registered to vote, but the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) has suspended polling in the northern Tigray region, citing “unfavourable conditions” after the 2020‑2022 civil war. In Oromia, clashes with the Oromo Liberation Army have caused hundreds of deaths, while in Amhara the Fano armed group has disrupted voting in at least eight of the region’s 138 constituencies.Numbers Shaping the Election: Voter Registration, Seats, and Projected Growth50 million registered voters on election day.Prosperity Party previously won 410 of 484 parliamentary seats in the 2021 election.Ethiopia’s population stands at roughly 135 million, with nearly half under the age of 18.Official forecasts project national economic growth to exceed 10 percent in 2026, one of the fastest rates on the continent.Implications for Ethiopia’s Political Stability and Regional RelationsThe opposition alleges systematic suppression, including arrests of party leaders and legal obstacles to campaigning, claims the government denies. Human‑rights groups warn that recent crackdowns on journalists and civil‑society actors could reverse reforms introduced after 2018. Meanwhile, renewed rhetoric about Ethiopia’s right to sea access has strained ties with Eritrea, reviving old animosities.What the June 11 Results Could Mean for Ethiopia’s FutureIf the Prosperity Party secures a landslide, it will consolidate Abiy Ahmed’s grip on power and enable continuation of his economic agenda. However, persistent regional insurgencies and a fragmented opposition could limit the government’s ability to deliver on promised growth and could reignite internal conflicts, influencing both domestic stability and Ethiopia’s role in the Horn of Africa.

The Lead-Up to Ethiopia's Elections Ethiopia will head to the polls on June 1 for its first nationwide elections since the formal end of the Tigray war, a devastating two-year conflict from 2020 to 2022 that concluded with a peace agreement between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Ethiopia at a Glance Ethiopia is a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa, covering an area of 1,104,300sq km (426,400sq miles) and bordered by Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti. The country has sustained notable economic growth over the past two decades, with the IMF projecting a 9.2 percent expansion in 2026, the highest on the continent. Yet persistent challenges remain, including high inflation (11.7 percent as of April 2026), foreign exchange shortages, and the costly burden of post-war reconstruction. Ethiopia's Ethnic Groups The East African country is one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the world, with more than 80 distinct groups. The Oromo are the largest, making up about 35 percent of the population, concentrated largely in the south and central regions. The Amhara are the second-largest, about 24 percent, and have historically been the politically dominant group. Other significant groups include the Somali (7 percent), in the east; the Tigrayan (6 percent), concentrated in the northern Tigray region; and the Sidama (4 percent), in the southern highlands. Armed Violence Across the Country Ethiopia has been in near-continuous conflict since 2020, across several fronts: Tigray (2020-22): Ethiopian forces (ENDF) and their allies, including Eritrean forces, fought the Tigray defence forces (TDF). Oromia (2019-present): Conflict between Oromia regional forces, the ENDF, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has killed thousands of civilians. Amhara (2023-present): Amhara militias fought alongside federal troops in the Tigray war, but that alliance collapsed when the federal government reached a peace deal with the TPLF. According to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), an independent conflict monitor, between January 1, 2022 and May 15, 2026, more than 7,400 attacks have been recorded across the country.

Ethiopia's Contested Election LandscapeAddis Ababa, Ethiopia – Ethiopia will hold general elections on June 1, 2026, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's governing Prosperity Party (PP) widely expected to secure a decisive victory. A fragmented opposition and violence in parts of the country could keep millions from voting, raising questions about the legitimacy of the electoral process.In the capital, Addis Ababa, the ruling party has closed major roads, including Meskel Square in the city centre, to stage large rallies for supporters, while opposition parties say they have been barred from holding comparable gatherings.Election Dynamics and Government Campaign StrategyThe electoral board claims more than 50 million people have registered to vote out of a population of at least 130 million, though critics dispute these figures, pointing to large parts of the country affected by conflicts in regions including Amhara and Oromia, as well as lingering instability following the Tigray conflict.Several of the country's most populous regions, including Amhara, Oromia, Gambella and Tigray, remain unstable after a civil war that ended in 2022, killing an estimated 600,000 people and displacing millions.Regional Conflicts and Electoral Legitimacy"The polls are primarily a symbolic exercise intended to confer legitimacy on the incumbent," Kjetil Tronvoll, professor at Oslo New University College and an expert on Ethiopia, told Al Jazeera. "Multiparty elections in Ethiopia have never been a genuine contest with the real possibility of changing government, neither under the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) nor under the PP.""With the exclusion of Tigray, the challenge is far bigger than it appears on the surface," Tronvoll said, adding that it reflects Ethiopia's political and territorial crisis. "It is a consequence of the federal government's lack of territorial control and the erosion of federal authority over political institutions in the region."Suppression of Opposition and Media ControlMany opposition voices have been pushed out of formal political space, with armed movements active across Amhara, Oromia and other regions. Tigray has been excluded entirely from the election, as the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a banned but influential political actor in the region, consolidates its authority.Opposition leader Mistresilasie Tamerat, 23, who heads the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party (EPRP), says she has been repeatedly denied permits and venues to organize rallies, an issue also highlighted by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC), a government-established human rights body.Press Freedom Under SiegeMuch of Ethiopia's media and journalists have been warned against critical coverage of the upcoming election, while the media regulatory authority has come under scrutiny for its actions against the press, including the reported deportation of journalists and restrictions affecting outlets such as The Economist and The Africa Report.Ethiopia now ranks 145th out of 180 countries in Reporters Without Borders' 2025 Press Freedom Index, alongside Eritrea, North Korea and Iran near the bottom of the ranking. Addis Standard, a leading critical online publication, has had its licence withdrawn, while The Reporter newspaper, the country's largest-circulation paper, has been warned to align its reporting with government narratives.Diminished Public Engagement and Future OutlookDays before the vote, the mood in Addis Ababa is subdued. There are few campaign signs beyond those of the governing party and little visible political activity, reflecting a mood shaped by double-digit inflation and an influx of displaced people fleeing insecurity elsewhere in the country.Even music perceived as critical of the government, including songs by popular artist Teddy Afro, is increasingly absent from public spaces and radio broadcasts, residents say. For many Ethiopians, the election represents a continuation of the status quo rather than a genuine opportunity for political change, with the government's control over institutions and public space ensuring its anticipated victory.