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The Lead: Pakistan's Diplomatic Push in Iran CrisisPakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is in Iran as part of ongoing mediation efforts to end the Israel and United States's war that began on February 28. This high-level diplomatic visit comes as the US reports slight progress in negotiations while tensions remain high in the region.The Event Details: Pakistan's Second Mediation MissionMunir arrived in Tehran on Friday, Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported, citing the Pakistan Army. "On arrival, he was received and warmly welcomed by Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni," IRNA said, adding that "Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi was also present at the reception."It is the second such trip to Tehran by Munir amid Pakistani mediation efforts to end the war. Islamabad helped secure a temporary ceasefire between the warring sides on April 8, and later hosted the highest-level talks between the US and Iran since 1979 on April 11-12.During this visit to Iran, unnamed Pakistani sources told the Anadolu news agency that Munir will discuss Iran-US talks, regional peace and stability, and other "important issues".The Data Analysis: Shifting Positions in Negotiations"The current process and the presence of senior Pakistani officials in Tehran means that we have reached a turning point or a decisive situation," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil ⁠Baghaei said on Friday.Iranian state media quoted Baghaei as saying the gaps between Tehran and Washington are "deep and significant". "We cannot necessarily say that we have reached a point where an agreement is close," he said. "The focus of the negotiations is on ending the war. Details related to the nuclear issue are not being discussed at this stage."Speaking at the White House on Friday, US President Donald Trump said, "Iran is dying to make a deal". "We'll see what happens. But we hit them hard, and we had no choice because Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. They cannot have it," Trump added.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that "slight progress" was made during talks with Iran. "I don't want to exaggerate the progress in talks, saying there had been 'a little bit of movement, and that's good'. He said the conversations were ongoing.The Impact Analysis: Regional and Global RamificationsThe Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries a fifth of global oil production, have sent ripples through the global economy, driving energy prices soaring.As diplomatic efforts continue, European Union nations moved towards imposing sanctions on Iranian officials and others responsible for blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the EU said on Friday. Tehran effectively closed the key shipping lane for global oil and gas supplies in retaliation for the US-Israeli war."The EU will now be able to introduce further restrictive measures in response to Iran's actions undermining the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz," the European Council representing EU nations said.Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Tehran and then backed off. But he's also previously indicated he would hold off on military action to allow talks to continue, only to turn around and launch strikes. The US president said he called off attacks on Iran this week at the request of allies in the Middle East, including the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.The Prediction: Path Forward for Diplomatic SolutionsIran's ⁠Baghaei said ⁠on Friday that a Qatari delegation ‌was currently holding talks with Iran's foreign minister, ⁠but added that ⁠Pakistan remained the main ⁠mediator in ⁠the ⁠negotiations.With Pakistan intensifying its mediation process to secure a second round of direct talks between the US and Iran, the region remains on edge. While both sides report some progress, the deep gaps between Tehran and Washington suggest that a comprehensive resolution to the conflict remains elusive, with potential for both diplomatic breakthroughs and military escalation still on the table.

The UK's Energy Crisis: Superficial Measures vs. Fundamental Resilience Rachel Reeves's announcement of a series of cost of living measures this week shows a government trying to prove it still has agency and relevance. The VAT cuts on summer attractions such as theme parks and soft-play centres, free bus rides for the under-16s in England and reduced import tariffs on food are politically useful, but they do not fundamentally alter the UK's exposure to imported energy shocks. This is a mini-budget, with the emphasis on the mini. The inflationary impact of the Iran crisis, however, will be substantial. That is why the chancellor is moving into crisis-management mode with industrial resilience funds and thinly veiled threats to tax profiteers. But it is unlikely to be enough. The Energy Bill Surge: A Direct Hit to Households The repercussions from the closure of the strait of Hormuz are reviving the need for more radical state fiscal intervention. Ms Reeves moved pre-emptively because the energy regulator is next week expected to announce that energy bills are likely to rise by £209 to £1,850 a year for a typical dual-fuel household from July. That is an increase of 13% on the current £1,641 annual bill. It will be a direct hit to household disposable incomes – and Labour's central political claim that the cost of living crisis is easing on its watch. Worse may still be to come. If households absorb a summer rise in bills and then face costs rising again before winter, the government risks a return to the levels of financial anxiety felt after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Britain's Energy Vulnerability: Decades of Policy Missteps Britain's inflation vulnerability is because the country is dependent on energy from abroad. This is a result of the country prioritising for decades short-term profits from finance over building homegrown resilience. Labour ministers waived some Russian oil sanctions this week, allowing imports of diesel and jet fuel refined from Russian crude in third countries. The decision reflects Britain's shrinking refining capacity: the UK can now process only half as much petroleum as it could two decades ago. Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, is right that the safest long-term buffer is reducing fossil-fuel exposure itself rather than deepening gas dependence through new storage systems. But electrification takes years; Britain's energy system still faces winter usage spikes; and even in a green power future the UK would still have to import some materials and technology. The Political Economy of Energy Security Britain does not risk a pummelling from the markets because it may veer from the Treasury view. Britain's financialised economy operates through expectations and institutional structures far more than through simple trade arithmetic alone. Britain is not a developing nation dependent on scarce dollar reserves accumulated through exports. What markets punish most severely is political incoherence and weakness. The former prime minister Liz Truss guaranteed inflationary instability without a productive strategy – and paid for her mistakes. Britain has far more room for state-led transformation than the economic orthodoxy admits. It could simultaneously insulate households from energy costs and build a green power base. But transitions must be politically and institutionally coherent enough to sustain confidence while restructuring occurs. The Path Forward: Balancing Transition and Resilience Can Britain move away fast enough from carbon sources before the next series of external shocks – including that caused by the war in Iran – in the coming months? The jury remains out on that question. The country clearly must radically accelerate the transition to clean power. But it also needs a form of buffering and resilience during the transition itself. The government's current approach of mini-measures may provide temporary relief, but without a comprehensive strategy to address the fundamental vulnerabilities in Britain's energy system, households and businesses will remain exposed to the volatility of global energy markets. The challenge for the government is to balance immediate relief with the long-term structural changes needed to build genuine energy resilience.

The LeadRachel Reeves is preparing to announce a planning shake-up that would fast-track clean energy and infrastructure projects by curbing judicial reviews, the Treasury said.The Planning Reform DetailsThe chancellor will propose that parliament should be able to designate and approve the most important clean energy projects as of "critical national importance", as part of a wider package seeking to blunt the impact of the Iran crisis."That would reduce the exposure from judicial review on all but human rights grounds," the Treasury said.It comes as pressure grows on the government to accelerate its energy infrastructure development to meet its goal to build a virtually zero-carbon power system by 2030.The Renewable Energy LandscapeRenewable energy developers have long bemoaned the difficulty in gaining planning permission for projects, from offshore windfarms to onshore solar and battery storage developments, and waiting times to connect to Great Britain's electricity grid.A spokesperson for the Treasury said that vital infrastructure delivery had been "delayed by judicial reviews of projects the country needs."They added: "The chancellor won't stand for it any longer and is bringing forward bold changes to support delivery. She is clear that parliament must take back control – to get Britain building the power plants, windfarms and grid connections that will bring bills down, strengthen our energy security, and deliver growth in every part of our country."The Current State of Renewable Energy ApprovalsLast year a record number of renewable energy projects were given the go-ahead in Great Britain, according to analysis by the consultancy Cornwall Insight. It found that the energy capacity of new battery, wind, and solar projects that received approval climbed to 45GW, 96% higher than in 2024.However, it also found the pace of projects starting up lagged behind, largely as a result of long construction timelines and grid connection delays.The Broader Infrastructure ApproachFor other infrastructure, such as transport and water projects, the government will introduce a fixed legal challenge window. When this ends, planning consent could be updated to address "any legitimate issues", the Treasury said.The Political ContextThe proposal comes amid a series of policy moves by Reeves despite uncertainty around the future of Keir Starmer as prime minister.On Tuesday it emerged that the government asked UK supermarkets to consider freezing the prices of some essential foodstuffs to protect the public from inflation fuelled by the Middle East conflict.Reeves is expected to announce measures to help households with the cost of living on Thursday, on which she is also planning to cancel a planned rise in fuel duty.

The Lead India has raised fuel prices by about 3 percent as the energy crisis driven by the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz starts to bite on the economy. Fuel Price Hike The government in New Delhi announced the 3 rupees ($0.03) per litre price hike on Friday, as it moved to offset losses triggered by the shortage of supply. Gasoline prices rose to 97.77 rupees ($1.02) a litre, while diesel climbed to 90.67 rupees ($0.94). Economic Impact India is the world’s third-largest oil importer, with 90 percent of the oil it consumes coming from overseas, and about half of its usual crude supplies transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This has seen the country heavily impacted by rising energy prices and supply disruptions from the US-Israel war on Iran. Government Measures Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to adopt voluntary austerity measures, calling on them to work from home whenever possible, limit travelling abroad, and reduce purchases of gold. Modi described saving fuel as an act of “patriotism” and encouraged greater use of public transport, carpooling, and lower fertiliser consumption. Future Outlook India has also accelerated blending ethanol into gasoline as part of its push to cut crude oil imports. The country has signed pacts with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on oil and gas, as well as strategic defence ‌cooperation, to strengthen its energy security.

The Lead: Summit Concludes Without Iran Breakthrough Donald Trump has claimed that the US and China "feel very similar" about ending the war in Iran but offered no details about a possible breakthrough during the final day of his summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing. The Diplomatic Stance: Shared Goals but No Clear Path "We did discuss Iran," Trump said. "We feel very similar about [how] we want it to end. We don't want them to have a nuclear weapon. We want the straits open." He added: "We want them [Iran] to get it ended because it's a crazy thing there, a little bit crazy. And it's no good, it can't happen." The Strategic Pressure: China's Role in Iran Crisis There is much speculation about how much pressure the US is putting on China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, to use its leverage with Iran to encourage the country to reopen the strait of Hormuz. US trade representative Jamieson Greer said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Friday that the Chinese "don't want to be on the wrong side" on the Iran issue. "It's really important for China to have the strait of Hormuz open," Greer said. The Economic Calculus: China's Energy Security Concerns About half of China's crude oil passes through the waterway, but the bigger threat for the Chinese economy is if the conflict in the Middle East causes a global recession that dents demand for its exports. However, many in Beijing feel that the crisis in Iran is not China's responsibility. The Public Statements: Contradictory Messages US Secretary of State Marco Rubio initially said the US hoped "to convince [China] to play a more active role in getting Iran to walk away from what they're doing now and trying to do now in the Persian Gulf." But later he downplayed the idea that the US was seeking support from Beijing. "We're not asking for China's help. We don't need their help," Rubio said. The Chinese Response: Cautious Diplomacy China's foreign ministry on Friday again called for a ceasefire in Iran and said the strait of Hormuz should be opened "as soon as possible." Zhou Bo, a retired senior army colonel and a senior fellow in the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said: "On Iran, China definitely wants to help but I read what Rubio said: he actually seems to shift the burden to the Chinese side. In China, we have a saying: it is like, 'Why should I clean your shit?'" The Official Readouts: Diplomatic Language The White House readout of the more than two hours of talks between Trump and Xi on Thursday said the leaders "agreed that the strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy" and that "President Xi also made clear China's opposition to the militarisation of the strait." The Chinese readout of the meeting just made a brief reference to the "situation in the Middle East." The Controversial Remark: Trump's PR Comment Trump raised eyebrows during a TV interview when he suggested that finding Iran's enriched uranium was primarily for show after Israel demanded it as a goal. "I just feel better if I got it, actually, but it's – I think, it's more for public relations than it is for anything else," the US president told Fox News host Sean Hannity. The Trade Deals: Symbolic Gestures Trump told Fox News that China agreed to buy US oil, soybeans and 200 Boeing planes. But on key issues including Taiwan, there seems to have been little by way of concrete agreement. Trump was heard saying on his way into the tea room at the Zhongnanhai garden that Xi was giving him roses for the Rose Garden, according to a White House pool report. The Strategic Balance: Shifting Power Dynamics Julian Gewirtz, a former director for China on the national security council during the Biden administration, said the new Chinese formulation about US-China relations was about "locking in this current phase of strategic stalemate for the remainder of Trump's term and ideally beyond." Wu Xinbo, a professor of international studies at Fudan University and a Chinese government adviser, said the balance of power between the US and China was "shifting towards greater parity." "In the past, it always seemed as though the United States held the upper hand, constantly exerting pressure on China and taking the offensive. Now, however, it's fair to say that the two countries have reached a new point of equilibrium," Wu said.

The Fragile Ceasefire at Risk Islamabad has rejected allegations that it sheltered Iranian military aircraft from potential US strikes as the fragile ceasefire it helped broker between Washington and Tehran appears increasingly at risk. The diplomatic tensions come as US President Donald Trump dismissed Iran's latest peace proposal as "a piece of garbage" that he had not even finished reading, describing the month-old truce as being "on massive life support." Pakistan's Diplomatic Dilemma The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Pakistan called the CBS News report about Iranian aircraft being moved to Pakistan Air Force Base Nur Khan "misleading and sensationalised," stating the aircraft had arrived as part of diplomatic logistics for talks in Islamabad between US and Iranian officials on April 11. Pakistan emphasized that both Iranian and US aircraft used the base during the ceasefire period, and any significant foreign military presence at the base would be impossible to hide. "The Iranian aircraft currently parked in Pakistan arrived during the ceasefire period and bear no linkage whatsoever to any military contingency or preservation arrangement," the ministry said, adding that Pakistan had "consistently acted as an impartial, constructive and responsible facilitator" throughout the process. Washington's Growing Skepticism Despite Pakistan's denials, concerns in Washington have grown. A CNN report suggested some Trump administration officials believe Pakistan has been sharing "a more positive version of the Iranian position with the US than what reflects reality" while questioning whether Islamabad was "aggressively conveying Trump's displeasure." US Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, called for "a complete reevaluation" of Pakistan's mediator role. However, analysts suggest the controversy is unlikely to significantly damage Islamabad's position. "Pakistan has done more than many had expected. Delivering a ceasefire in an environment marred by sheer distrust was no mean feat," said Syed Ali Zia Jaffery, deputy director at the Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research at the University of Lahore. Deadlock in Peace Negotiations The immediate trigger for the latest tensions was Washington's rejection of an Iranian peace proposal delivered through Pakistan on Sunday. Iranian state media said Tehran's terms included US war reparations, full Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to sanctions, and the release of frozen assets, while insisting nuclear negotiations be deferred. "I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support," Trump said in the Oval Office, describing the situation as one "where the doctor walks in and says, 'Sir, your loved one has approximately a 1 percent chance of living.'" Iranian officials rejected this characterization, calling their proposal "reasonable and generous" and insisting they had demanded "only Iran's legitimate rights." Regional and International Ramifications The core disagreements between Washington and Tehran remain unchanged. The US wants Iran to explicitly abandon its nuclear program and surrender its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent, while Tehran insists nuclear negotiations can only follow the lifting of sanctions and the end of the US naval blockade imposed on its ports. Since the Islamabad talks ended without an agreement on April 12, Pakistan has continued to act as an intermediary, carrying proposals between the two sides. Qatar has also backed the mediation effort, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meeting Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani in Miami, Florida. Path Forward Amid Uncertainty Trump is expected to discuss the Iran crisis with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a visit to Beijing this week, as Washington hopes Beijing could use its influence with Tehran. China is Iran's biggest economic and strategic partner, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing last week. The Iranian foreign minister is also expected to attend a meeting of BRICS foreign ministers in India, alongside top diplomats from Saudi Arabia and Egypt. "For the ceasefire, this is actually stabilising. More parties with skin in the game raise the cost of collapse for everyone," said analyst Mohanad Seloom. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that if Iran's nuclear material could not be removed through negotiations, Israel and the US agreed "we can re-engage them militarily." Former Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani warned that the weaponisation of the Strait of Hormuz was "the most dangerous outcome" of the conflict, suggesting the crisis would outlast any ceasefire.

The United States‑Israel war on Iran is triggering a cascade of economic and political challenges in the United Kingdom, from plummeting consumer confidence to rising energy costs and heightened public anxiety.Escalating Tensions: How the Iran Conflict Is Reverberating Across the UKBritish headlines this week illustrate the breadth of the shock:Financial Times: “Consumer confidence slumps to two‑year low.”The Guardian: “UK braces for price rises driven by Iran war as economic confidence plummets.”The Times: “Economic fallout from the Iran war will last at least eight months.”The Independent: Prime Minister Keir Starmer refuses U.S. use of UK bases for strikes on Iranian infrastructure, risking tension with President Donald Trump.The government has formed an Iran crisis committee, and the RAF has readied Typhoon jets to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.Economic Numbers: Inflation, Mortgage Rates, and Oil Price SurgesConsumer confidence fell to its lowest level in two years.Oil prices spiked after the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, marking the largest supply disruption in modern history, according to the International Energy Agency.Mortgage rates are expected to stay flat or rise, erasing hopes for cuts at the Bank of England’s April meeting.Deputy chief economist Luke Bartholomew (Aberdeen) warns the UK is “particularly badly exposed” as a major energy importer with weak inflation expectations.Survey by IPSOS (December) shows 74% of Britons anticipate large‑scale public unrest in 2026.Broader Consequences: Political Strain and Public Unrest in BritainPrime Minister Starmer pledged to “stand by working people” while urging households to brace for altered holiday plans and tighter grocery budgets.Critics argue the government’s strained finances limit its ability to subsidise energy or tap untapped North Sea oil reserves.Housing market pressure: house prices have dipped as sellers grow nervous and buyers hesitate.Fuel queues and sporadic panic‑buying echo early‑COVID‑19 patterns.Economist Thomas Pugh (RSM UK) warns of “demand destruction” across sectors—from cars to restaurants—if high prices persist.Looking Ahead: Potential Scenarios for the UK Amid a Prolonged Iran WarAnalysts outline three plausible paths:Short‑term escalation: Continued oil price volatility pushes the Bank of England to raise rates, squeezing household budgets and deepening the cost‑of‑living crisis.Mid‑term diplomatic resolution: A ceasefire could stabilize energy markets, allowing inflation to ease and giving the government space to consider targeted fiscal relief.Prolonged conflict: Persistent disruption of the Strait of Hormuz may trigger a recession, higher unemployment, and amplified public protests, forcing a reassessment of the UK’s defence posture and energy strategy.Policymakers, businesses, and citizens alike will be watching the evolving situation closely, as the war’s ripple effects continue to reshape Britain’s economic landscape.

The Global Energy RealignmentIn the open seas, an armada of empty tankers has quietly turned west. A record number of super-sized vessels are now heading to the US, where oil drillers and refineries are preparing to profit from Donald Trump's war in the Middle East. Almost 30 of these vessels, each able to hold 2m barrels of oil, are contracted to load US crude, destined for a global market facing the biggest supply crisis in history.It is just over five years since the shale revolution made the US a net energy exporter and the world's biggest producer of oil and gas. Now the White House is poised to strengthen its claim to an even greater share of the global oil market as the Middle East's decades-long dominance is dismantled by war.US Oil Experiences Unprecedented GrowthThe carriers preparing to amass in US waters are almost six times the monthly number that typically loaded US crude before the war throttled flows of Middle East fossil fuels to the market. Supplies of US crude leaving the country's export terminals have climbed by a third to a record 5.2m barrels a day after Iran retaliated against US-Israeli attacks by blocking daily flows of 10m barrels of Gulf oil exports via the strait of Hormuz.US weekly exports of jet fuel have doubled to an all time high as Europe scrambles to secure supplies and airlines begin to cut flights. The war threatens to reshape the global energy order, exposing the world's reliance on Middle East supplies and accelerating a move towards greener energy, giving rise to new energy superpowers.Latin America Emerges as New Energy PowerhouseThe world's turn to the west marks a potential reordering of global energy supplies, and the greatest threat to the future energy dominance of the Middle East. For decades, Saudi Arabia's vast oil reserves made the kingdom the world's biggest crude supplier and the de facto leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) cartel and its allies. In a matter of weeks, the Iran war has erased a third of Saudi crude production.Restarting the region's shuttered oil and gas fields and drone-damaged infrastructure is expected to cost between $34bn (£25bn) to $58bn, according to analysts at the consultancy Rystad Energy. The process of restoring production to its previous levels could take years, if it is achieved at all.As doubts over the future market dominance of the Gulf's petrostates deepen, the surge in market prices has begun fuelling the rise of the Americas. The growth in US and Canadian crude production – which has accelerated in recent years – is expected to continue through the 2020s. However, almost half of the world's oil supply growth over the rest of the decade is expected to come from Latin America's oil boom.The Rise of Chinese Solar DominanceThe focus on rerouting fossil fuel flows overlooks another key reordering of the global energy system: the rise of the electrostate. Wood Mackenzie believes the 'out-and-out winner' of the Iran crisis looks likely to be China. While the Middle East conflict has done more than spike oil prices, it has also accelerated global interest in alternative energy sources.China's strategic position in solar energy technology and manufacturing positions it to capitalize on the growing demand for renewable energy alternatives. As traditional oil markets face uncertainty, Chinese solar companies are poised to benefit from the global energy transition.Market Implications and Future OutlookThe rise of the Americas could still be scuppered by a sooner-than-expected reopening of the strait of Hormuz. A full recovery of Gulf oil production could return within a year if the conflict is resolved in the coming months, according to Dylan White, a director at the oil consultancy Wood Mackenzie.Any short-lived increase in oil production from the Americas paled 'in comparison to the volume losses caused by shuttered strait of Hormuz transit,' he added. Yet there is no guarantee that Middle East producers will return to a market and find the same levels of demand.The Iran conflict has fundamentally altered global energy dynamics, creating both immediate winners and long-term structural changes. The US oil industry benefits from short-term market disruptions, while China's solar sector gains from accelerated renewable energy adoption. Meanwhile, Latin American oil producers, particularly Venezuela, stand to gain significant market share as global energy sources diversify away from traditional Middle Eastern dominance.

The nearly two-month-long Iran conflict has sent shockwaves through global markets, driving up the cost of fuel and fertiliser. However, the true impact on food prices is a delayed reaction, creating a precarious situation where the immediate threat is a potential global food catastrophe, yet the current reality is a mixed signal of stability and rising costs. Key Developments Strait of Hormuz Disruption: The closure of this vital waterway, which carries one-third of global seaborne fertiliser and one-quarter of seaborne oil, is the primary driver of current market anxiety. FAO Warning: The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a stark warning that a prolonged closure could trigger a global food "catastrophe." Vulnerable Regions: Nations in the Global South, including India, Bangladesh, Egypt, Somalia, and Sudan, are identified as being at the highest risk of acute food shortages. US-Iran Ceasefire: With a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran expiring, the political landscape remains volatile, with President Trump indicating a reluctance to extend the truce. Data & Market Impact While the headlines suggest chaos, the data presents a nuanced picture. Global food prices rose by 2.4% last month, with cereal prices edging up by 1.5%. However, this is still 11% below the average prices seen in 2022 during the Ukraine crisis. Record Stocks: Despite the war, global cereal stocks are at an all-time high of 951.5 million tonnes, up 9% from the previous year. Fertilizer Price Projection: The FAO estimates that fertiliser prices could be 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis is not resolved. Humanitarian Impact: The World Food Programme warns that nearly 45 million more people could face acute food shortages if the conflict continues into mid-year with oil prices above $100 a barrel. Why This Matters The significance of this crisis lies not just in current price indices, but in the structural vulnerability of the Global South. Unlike high-income nations where food is a small portion of household expenditure, in many low-income countries, fuel prices feed directly into retail food prices because transport expenditure makes up a far larger share of total household budgets. This means that even before a potential harvest shock occurs, rising energy costs are already straining food budgets in major cities like Dhaka, Cairo, and Lagos. As prices rise, households are forced to shift away from nutritious fruits and proteins toward "cheaper, calorie-dense staples," leading to lasting consequences for child nutrition and long-term health. Expert Insight Analysts emphasize that the current calm in food markets is deceptive. Sandro Steinbach of North Dakota State University explains that agriculture operates on biological timelines, while fertilizer and shipping markets can reprice in days. This creates a lag where inventories and pre-purchased inputs temporarily mute the effect, but the biological reality of farming—where reduced input use leads to lower yields—cannot be ignored. Conversely, Elizabeth Robinson of the London School of Economics argues that the situation differs from the 2007-08 crisis because grain markets are not currently disrupted and there are no export bans. However, Kathy Baylis warns that the April numbers will likely be worse and that the critical factor to watch is the planted area for major crops this spring, which could signal a farmer response to increased input costs. What Happens Next The coming weeks will be critical in determining the trajectory of global food security. The immediate focus must be on the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire and whether diplomatic resolution can reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait remains closed, we can expect a sharp increase in fertilizer costs, which will likely force farmers to reduce input usage, potentially leading to a drop in yields later this year. Furthermore, policymakers must monitor for export restrictions, as the absence of such bans in 2026 is a key factor preventing an immediate price explosion, but their introduction could rapidly change the market dynamic.