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Executive Summary: Trump’s "Anything I Want" Claim Over CubaIn the shadow of his Beijing trip, Donald Trump declared that he can do “anything I want” to Cuba, signaling an escalation of the U.S. oil blockade that has already triggered nationwide blackouts, rare protests and a steep drop in tourism.US Oil Blockade Deepens Humanitarian Crisis on the IslandThe administration’s restriction on fuel imports has left hospitals scrambling, schools closed and the power grid faltering. UN experts warned the blockade may constitute unlawful collective punishment.Fuel oil supplies ran out in early May 2026.Hospitals report shortages of generators and essential medicines.Surveillance flights have intensified over Havana.Economic Fallout: Tourism, Mining and Medical ExportsKey revenue streams are collapsing:Tourism: Visitor arrivals fell by over 70% since the blockade began.Mining: Canadian firm Sherritt withdrew from a joint venture, halting planned copper‑nickel projects.Medical diplomacy: Several countries terminated contracts for Cuban doctors, cutting a vital foreign‑exchange source.Geopolitical Ripple Effects Across the AmericasThe CIA director John Ratcliffe visited Havana demanding economic reforms, the closure of Chinese and Russian intelligence posts, and the removal of President Miguel Díaz‑Canel. The move aligns with longtime hard‑liners such as Marco Rubio and seeks to curb Cuban migration, a growing concern for the Trump base.What Comes Next: Scenarios for Cuba’s FutureAnalysts outline three likely paths:Negotiated economic opening: Limited U.S. investment in “key sectors” if Havana loosens state control.Continued pressure: Further sanctions and possible indictment of former president Raúl Castro, deepening the humanitarian crisis.Military escalation: Though unlikely, a direct assault would have catastrophic regional consequences.Regardless of the route, Cuba’s fate will hinge on whether Washington’s coercive strategy can force reforms without triggering a broader conflict.

The Caribbean and Latin America are facing a critical moment in their relationship with Cuba, as they succumb to US pressure to expel Cuban doctors. These medical professionals have been a lifeline for many in the region, providing essential healthcare services, particularly in rural and underserved areas. Cuban doctors have been a cornerstone of healthcare in the Caribbean and Latin America, with programs dating back 50 years. However, under pressure from the US, countries such as Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda, Guyana, and St Vincent and the Grenadines have terminated these agreements. Only St Kitts and Nevis and Trinidad and Tobago have yet to follow. The US has branded these programs "forced labor" and "human trafficking" because the Cuban state retains a share of salaries. However, this ignores the fact that Cuban doctors are trained free of charge by the Cuban government, unlike their counterparts in countries like the UK, who often graduate with significant student debt. The consequences of expelling Cuban doctors are severe. Millions could lose basic healthcare, with Indigenous communities particularly exposed. The region's healthcare systems, already fragile, are being strained, and the poorest will pay the price in untreated illnesses, unattended births, and undiagnosed cancers. Cuba has built a global medical network of more than 50,000 professionals working across dozens of countries, generating billions in foreign revenue and sustaining its economy under embargo. However, US pressure is disrupting this model, and Cuban medical personnel are being withdrawn, cutting off one of the island's few reliable sources of income. The Caribbean and Latin America are complicit in this economic warfare against Cuba. Sanctions restrict trade, finance, fuel, and medicine, shrinking economies, deepening poverty, and punishing citizens rather than governments. In Cuba, the effects are stark: blackouts, shortages, and collapsing productivity. A notable exception is Barbados, whose Prime Minister Mia Mottley has defended Cuba's medical missions and rejected the insinuation of "trafficking." She has made it clear that Barbados will stand by what is right, even at the cost of US punishments, highlighting that sovereignty is not merely constitutional but also moral.