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The Arrest That Sparked International ConcernThe operation began at 9am Moscow time, but took place across all of Russia's 11 time zones. Almost simultaneously, agents of the federal security service (FSB) raided the homes and workplaces of 17 Indigenous rights activists. Officers carried out searches, confiscated laptops and phones, and arrested and interrogated activists about participation in international forums. Most were let go; many have since left the country. Others remain in Russia, but will no longer speak up.Six months later, one remains in jail. Daria Egereva, one of Russia's foremost Indigenous rights activists, is accused of membership of a terror group. No trial date has been set. Her supporters say the charges are fabricated and she has been targeted for speaking out.Egereva was not just any activist. A member of the Selkup indigenous group, from western Siberia, she was a "bright star" of Russia's indigenous rights movement. As a member of the UN's Indigenous Peoples' Coordinating Body, she had international status. Weeks before her arrest, she had played a key role at Cop30 in Brazil as co-chair of the Indigenous People's Forum on Climate Change.Her jailing has shone a spotlight on the plight of Russia's Indigenous people, threatened by authoritarianism, extractivism and climate breakdown.The Climate Crisis in Russia's Arctic"They are really seeing the worst effects of climate change," said Alicia Moncada, director of global advocacy at Cultural Survival, which campaigns for Indigenous rights. "They are on the frontline of the frontline – that's why [Egereva's] advocacy was super important."The polar north is heating faster than any other part of the planet. In recent decades, temperatures in Arctic regions have risen three to four times faster than the global average. Communities based on permafrost are seeing their world collapse around them."The elders are saying that nature has stopped trusting us," said one exiled Indigenous leader, who requested that his name be withheld. "The traditional ways of predicting nature are not working any more."Many settlements sit next to the banks of rivers and lakes. Due to the melting permafrost, those banks are beginning to crumble. "There is a real threat of destruction for a lot of those villages," said the leader, who spoke through an interpreter. And the melting ice has brought a new source of tension: newly accessible critical mineral resources.Resource Extraction and Indigenous Displacement"All these resources of the Russian Federation, a majority of them are located under the lands of Indigenous people: gold, diamonds, oil, gas, coal," the leader said. "For some people it is a treasure, but for us it is a curse."Because the companies are coming to our land for those resources and they are pushing us out. Even if they don't push us out, the environmental situation in those places will become so bad that we are unable to hunt or fish."One of the elders said that we can adapt to anything, but we will not be able to survive without our land."The Government Crackdown on Indigenous ActivismAlthough Indigenous groups maintained their identities, by the end of the Soviet era they lacked independent organisation and relied on the state. Egereva had been part of a new generation of leaders who had encouraged community self-empowerment.But this assertiveness brought them into conflict with the authorities. Even before the war in Ukraine, the Russian state claimed that its enemies were exploiting environmental and indigenous issues. Now, with the war a pretext for a crackdown on civil society, Indigenous people are among those at the sharp end.To date, 830 organisations and 20,813 individuals have been put on the "list of terrorists and extremists", according to the UN. Among them was Aborigen Forum, a network of Indigenous defenders designated an "extremist organisation" in July 2024.Russian authorities have based their charges against Egereva and her co-defendant, Natalia Leongardt, a civil rights activist, on their involvement with Aborigen. Authorities claim it is part of an anti-state "post-Russia free nations forum".International Response and Russian DefenseIn a bail hearing on 29 April, Egereva and Leongardt denied being part of any anti-state conspiracy. "I am not familiar with and do not know this organisation," Egereva told the court. "What we are being accused of is completely untrue ... I ask to be allowed to return home and embrace my children."The court refused to grant them bail, remanding them in custody until at least mid-June. The following day, Russia celebrated a new federal holiday: the "Day of Indigenous Small-Numbered Peoples".The Russian embassy told the Guardian: "The investigation concerning Daria Egereva is an internal Russian legal matter, conducted in full accordance with Russian law. As proceedings are ongoing, we are not in a position to comment on the specifics of the case."Russia firmly rejects any allegations of violations of Indigenous people's rights. Unlike a number of western states – including Britain in its former colonies – Russia has no history of forced assimilation of Indigenous communities. Russian law affords Indigenous peoples special legal protections, guaranteeing their collective and individual rights, cultural identity, and linguistic heritage under the constitution and in line with international norms."Russia is actively engaged in the international climate agenda, taking account of both the challenges and the economic opportunities emerging in its northern regions – including expanded access to the northern sea route and mineral resources in permafrost zones. All such projects are carried out with the aim of supporting regional development, creating jobs and attracting investment, including for the benefit of Indigenous communities in these areas."

Executive Overview: A New Scientific Engine for DecarbonisationOn the opening day of the inaugural Transition Away Conference in Santa Marta, Colombia, a high‑profile panel of climate, economics and technology experts was announced to supply governments with science‑based roadmaps for exiting the fossil‑fuel era.Panel Structure and LeadershipThe panel will be chaired by Vera Songwe, Ottmar Edenhofer and Gilberto M Jannuzzi, and was convened by Johan Rockström and Carlos Nobre. Its remit mirrors the UK Climate Change Committee, setting national and sector‑level milestones aligned with a 1.5 °C pathway.Chairpersons: Vera Songwe (Cameroon), Ottmar Edenhofer (Germany), Gilberto M Jannuzzi (Brazil)Co‑organisers: Johan Rockström, Carlos NobreParticipating nations at launch: >50, including Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil, AngolaEconomic Calculus of Colombia’s Draft RoadmapThe Colombian draft, co‑authored by the panel, projects a 90 % reduction in fossil‑fuel use by 2050. Modelling suggests a cumulative economic benefit of $280 bn over the next 24 years, with net savings materialising in the early 2040s.Target: 90 % cut in fossil‑fuel consumption by 2050Projected net benefit: $280 bn (24 years)Break‑even: early 2040sStrategic Implications for Global Energy PolicyBy aggregating scientific insight with policy briefs, the panel aims to strengthen nationally determined contributions, inform sectoral strategies and accelerate just transitions, especially for major oil‑exporting economies that face revenue challenges.Supports COP30 call for roadmapsProvides year‑by‑year updates for governmentsTargets both emission reductions and energy securityFuture Trajectory: From Panel to Global Standard?Analysts expect the panel’s outputs to become a reference for future national climate councils. If replicated, the model could institutionalise science‑driven decarbonisation pathways worldwide, nudging even reluctant fossil‑fuel producers toward cleaner economies.

First Global ‘Transition Away from Fossil Fuels’ Conference Kicks Off in Santa MartaThe world’s inaugural conference dedicated to phasing out fossil fuels opens in Santa Marta, Colombia on 24 April, running through 29 April. Co‑hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands, the event gathers a “coalition of the willing” to chart a pragmatic roadmap for low‑carbon energy after years of stalemate at UN COP meetings.Conference Structure and Participating NationsFifty‑four governments have registered, sending ministers or senior officials. Together they represent roughly one‑fifth of global fossil‑fuel production and one‑third of global demand. Key participants include:EU member states and the UKCo‑hosts of COP31: Turkey and AustraliaMajor producers: Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, Angola, CanadaAbsent are the world’s largest emitters: China, India, the United States, Russia, Iran and Japan. Colombian Environment Minister Irene Vélez Torres emphasized that non‑participants are “not a problem” for a gathering of willing nations.Numbers Highlighting the Scale of the Coalition54 governments registeredRepresenting ~20% of global fossil‑fuel productionRepresenting ~33% of global fossil‑fuel demandOil price surge linked to war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for ~20% of world oil and LNGThe oil price spike is driving higher costs for energy, food, fertiliser and industrial goods, intensifying pressure on vulnerable populations and boosting the economic case for renewable alternatives.Why the Breakaway Conference Could Shift Climate NegotiationsUnlike the UN COP process, which requires consensus and has been repeatedly blocked by petrostates, this summit focuses on actionable items: financing mechanisms for developing nations, debt‑relief packages, and concrete demand‑reduction strategies. A panel of leading scientists—dubbed “rock‑star academics” by Vélez—will draft a technical report to guide national roadmaps.The conference also aims to harmonise overlapping global initiatives, ensuring that parallel efforts (such as the roadmap promised at COP30) do not work at cross‑purposes.What the Next Steps May Look Like for Global Fossil‑Fuel Phase‑outWhile no binding treaty is expected, the summit will produce a set of policy recommendations and a draft framework for national transition plans. These outputs are intended to feed into the forthcoming UN‑led process and to give finance ministries concrete levers for supporting clean‑energy investments.If the “coalition of the willing” can demonstrate tangible financing pathways and credible demand‑reduction targets, it could pressure reluctant major emitters to re‑engage, potentially reshaping the trajectory of global climate governance.

Opening new oil and gas fields in the North Sea would send a shock wave around the world, senior climate diplomats warned, saying the move would imperil international climate targets, erode the United Kingdom’s reputation as a climate leader and embolden developing countries to exploit their own fossil‑fuel reserves.The UK government faces intense lobbying from the oil industry, Conservative MPs, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, certain trade unions and factions within the Treasury. Yet research shows that new drilling would do little to lower energy prices and would have almost no impact on gas imports.Two of the remaining large North Sea prospects – the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields – sit in a basin that is over 90% depleted and increasingly costly to develop. Even if fully exploited, they would displace only about 1% and 2% of the UK’s gas imports respectively, according to recent analysis.Senior figures in international climate diplomacy described the prospect of new drilling as dangerous for global emissions‑reduction efforts and a step back from the phase‑out of fossil fuels.Lord Nicolas Stern, professor at the London School of Economics, warned that “new drilling and a slowdown in climate action would be bad for growth and for energy security in the UK, and a damaging signal for the world.” He added that the UK’s pioneering climate legislation and its role as the first G7 nation to commit to net‑zero by 2050 give its actions “extra weight” on the global stage.An anonymous senior African negotiator reacted angrily to the proposal, stating that Africa would “reject any proposal for the UK to expand oil drilling” because it is “fundamentally inconsistent with both the letter and spirit of the Paris Agreement” and would “weaken trust with climate‑vulnerable nations”.Christiana Figueres, former UN climate chief and co‑founder of the Global Optimism think‑tank, argued that true energy independence lies in “scaling clean, domestic energy, not in extending the life of declining industries”. She cautioned that reverting to old‑fashioned oil expansion would lock in infrastructure at odds with the direction of the global energy system.The UK has been a vocal supporter of an upcoming conference in Colombia on the “transition away from fossil fuels”, a pledge made three years ago at COP28 that remains largely unfulfilled. However, the Guardian learned that Ed Miliband, the UK secretary of state for energy security and net‑zero, will not attend; the government’s climate envoy, Rachel Kyte, will travel in his place.Campaigners had urged Miliband’s presence, citing his pivotal role in securing a last‑minute deal at COP30 in Brazil last November.Experts caution that licensing new fields before the Colombian summit could undermine progress in persuading developing nations to forgo fossil‑fuel‑based economies and adopt cleaner energy pathways.Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa think‑tank, warned that a UK approval would “send a shock wave around the world that short‑term interests are being prioritised over long‑term responsibility”. He stressed that many African countries are being asked to leapfrog to clean energy with limited financial support, and that wealthy nations continuing to invest in fossil fuels “undermine this message and diminish their credibility”.Several developing‑country officials echoed this concern, asking, “Why shouldn’t we tap into our own fossil‑fuel resources if the UK is doing so?” They argued that leadership on climate must be consistent with actions.An ally of Miliband praised the UK’s stance, calling “no new exploration licences” a “landmark global leadership position” that shows a major oil‑producing country can align policy with climate science to avoid a 3‑4°C warming scenario.A government spokesperson reaffirmed the administration’s commitment, stating that the UK has placed “clean energy and climate at the heart of its agenda”, and that it will continue to “stop issuing licences to explore new fields, in line with the science and in securing a just transition in the North Sea”.

The conflict in Iran has underscored how fragile a world built on fossil fuels truly is, with disruptions to oil, gas and fertilizer shipments adding millions of tonnes of greenhouse‑gas emissions to an already critical climate system.While Saudi Arabia and other petrostates blocked any mention of a fossil‑fuel phase‑out at the UN COP30 summit last November, a new diplomatic effort is gathering momentum outside the UN framework.On 28‑29 April, Colombia will host the First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels. Unlike UN negotiations, the summit will be decided by majority vote, preventing a handful of countries from derailing progress.The event is co‑sponsored by Colombia – the world’s fifth‑largest coal exporter – and the Netherlands, home to Royal Dutch Shell. Organisers have invited nations that supported the COP30 roadmap, as well as sub‑national leaders such as California Governor Gavin Newsom, a potential 2028 U.S. presidential contender.Delegates, described as a “coalition of the willing”, will share concrete plans to shift their economies away from fossil fuels while safeguarding workers and communities. Climate activists, Indigenous representatives and trade‑union leaders will also contribute ideas for turning the abstract goal of decarbonisation into actionable policy.One focal point will be the reduction of the $7 trillion per year in global fossil‑fuel subsidies, a figure that the International Energy Agency warns could be trimmed without harming the livelihoods that depend on these funds. UN Secretary‑General António Guterres has urged the International Energy Agency to create a platform that aligns the decline of fossil‑fuel investment with rapid clean‑energy expansion.The real leverage of this coalition lies in its economic weight. The 85 countries that backed the COP30 roadmap together account for a gross national product of $33.3 trillion—surpassing the United States’ $30.6 trillion and far exceeding China’s $19.4 trillion.If the Just Transition conference produces a credible, market‑oriented plan, it could send a clear signal to investors and policymakers that the era of oil, gas and coal is ending, prompting a reallocation of capital away from stranded‑asset risks.Adding California’s $4.1 trillion GDP to the coalition’s total would create an economic bloc of roughly $37.4 trillion, approaching the combined $50 trillion output of the United States and China.Newsom has repeatedly positioned California as a climate leader, noting that two‑thirds of the state’s electricity now comes from non‑carbon sources and that its economy has risen from the world’s sixth to fourth largest. He pledged that California will fill the void left by the United States’ retreat from the Paris Agreement by competing in global green‑technology markets.Public opinion supports such a shift: between 80 % and 89 % of the world’s population wants stronger climate action. The upcoming conference therefore represents a pivotal chance to translate widespread demand into a coordinated, economically powerful push for a fossil‑fuel‑free future.