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A Historic State Visit and the Red Sea GatewayIsrael rolled out a lavish state welcome for Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, known as Cirro, in Jerusalem. This visit marks the first state visit by a Somaliland leader and serves as a formal consolidation of Israel’s decision six months ago to become the first country to recognise the breakaway region’s independence from Somalia.The ceremony was steeped in symbolism, with Abdullahi laying a wreath at the grave of Theodor Herzl and receiving the Friends of Zion Award. During a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Abdullahi emphasized the historic nature of the visit, stating, “For 35 years we have been asking the world to see us. And Israel and you yourself were the first to see us and recognise us.”The visit culminated in the formal opening of Somaliland’s embassy in West Jerusalem, a move that drew immediate condemnation from Palestine, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and the Arab League.The Strategic Value of the Red Sea CorridorThe core driver of this deepening relationship is geography. Somaliland controls a long stretch of coastline overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the narrow gateway linking the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and a critical artery for global trade.Maritime Security: For Israel, which has faced repeated disruptions to Red Sea shipping due to attacks by Yemen’s Houthis, Somaliland offers a strategic counterweight.Operational Reach: Analysts point to the militarisation of Berbera, Somaliland’s largest coastal city, where a Soviet-era airport has been repurposed. The International Institute for Strategic Studies suggests this could serve as a potential operational base for Israeli forces.Diplomatic Isolation: Yossi Mekelberg of Chatham House noted that Israel is increasingly isolated regionally and views Somaliland as a rare strategic opening.Isolation and Diplomatic CalculusThis alliance addresses the core security and diplomatic needs of both parties. For Netanyahu, engaging with Somaliland offers a way to bypass the Palestinian issue and forge new alliances. For Somaliland, it is a bid for international legitimacy and security guarantees.However, the partnership is fraught with risks. Somalia’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs expressed concern that Somaliland would be drawn into Israel’s regional conflicts, calling the interference “a very, very big problem.” Furthermore, the Houthis have warned that any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be a “military target.”Domestically, there is dissent within Somaliland. Former President Muse Bihi Abdi and some religious scholars have criticized the government for potentially violating the constitution by allowing military cooperation that could harm Muslims or go against their religion.The Future of the Somaliland-Israel AllianceWhile Somaliland officials have denied plans for a military base, they have not ruled out the possibility. The relationship is moving from the “recognition phase” to a “consolidation phase,” with both sides signing a Strategic Cooperation Declaration.Looking ahead, the success of this alliance depends on whether Israel can provide tangible security benefits without provoking a wider regional war. For Somaliland, the gamble is that the strategic value of the Red Sea will outweigh the diplomatic and religious costs of aligning with Israel.

The Houthis, a Shia sect backed by Iran, have entered the conflict with missile attacks on Israeli military sites. The true significance of their involvement depends on whether they intend to launch sporadic attacks or effectively close off the Red Sea to shipping. Disruption of the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Strait of Hormuz could have a devastating impact on global trade and economy. The Houthis' ability to interdict ships poses a significant threat, and their actions could drive up shipping costs and oil prices. The Houthis have a complex relationship with Iran, receiving arms from Tehran but not directly fighting on its behalf. A ceasefire with the US, mediated by Oman, has been in place since May 2025, but it does not apply to Israel. Saudi Arabia's role in Yemen's future is crucial, as it seeks to reach deals with the Houthis and former Southern Transitional Council (STC) supporters. The Houthis may act cautiously, seeking financial rewards from Saudi Arabia. The conflict could drag Yemen further into regional war, making peace more difficult and prolonging civilian suffering. The UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, has warned of the escalation's risks, stating it will deepen economic repercussions and prolong the suffering of civilians.

The conflict in the Middle East has taken a dramatic turn as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched a second wave of attacks on Israel since joining the conflict on Saturday. The Houthis have vowed to continue their military operations in the coming days until Israel "ceases its attacks and aggression".In a significant escalation, two powerful explosions shook northern Tehran early on Sunday, with air defenses operating in the Iranian capital. The blasts occurred around 7:20 am, but it was not immediately clear what was targeted.Meanwhile, the US is reportedly preparing plans for ground operations in Iran, with the Trump administration having already deployed US Marines to the Middle East. The Pentagon is considering weeks of ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz.The entry of the Houthis into the conflict poses a direct threat to the Bab al-Mandab strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, a critical choke point in the supply chain of energy supplies and other trade in and out of the Middle East. A shutdown of the Bab al-Mandab, located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, would amplify the already grave impact of the war on the global economy and could also reignite a Saudi-Yemen conflict.Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has told one of the US's biggest annual gatherings of conservatives that he is ready to lead a new Iranian government and would call on the country's citizens to rise up when the "right moment arrives".Iran's Revolutionary Guard has threatened to target US universities in the Middle East after saying US-Israeli strikes had deliberately targeted two Iranian universities.

Yemen's Houthi rebels have launched a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel, marking their first such attack since the US-Israel war on Iran began. The assault was announced by Brigadier-General Yahya Saree, a military spokesman for the Houthis, on their Al-Masirah satellite television. The attack targeted what Saree described as 'sensitive Israeli military sites' in southern Israel. The Israeli military reported intercepting one of the missiles. This development comes as Iran and Hezbollah continue to fire on Israel, with sirens sounding around Beer Sheba and near Israel's main nuclear research centre. Saree stated that the strikes 'will continue until the declared objectives are achieved, as stated in the previous statement by the armed forces, and until the aggression against all fronts of the resistance ceases'. This escalation follows a vague statement by Saree on Friday signaling the rebels' intention to join the conflict. The Houthis, who have controlled Yemen's capital, Sanaa, since 2014, had previously stayed out of the US-Israel war. However, they have been involved in attacks on shipping vessels during the Israel-Hamas war, disrupting commercial transit in the Red Sea. Over 100 merchant vessels were attacked with missiles and drones, resulting in two ships sinking and four sailors killed between November 2023 and January 2025. Experts consider the Houthis' entry into the US-Israeli war on Iran as 'very significant'. Mohamad Elmasry, a professor of Media Studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, noted that if the Houthis were to shut down the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal, it would impact two major international shipping waterways, alongside the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera's Nida Ibrahim reported from Ramallah that the opening of a new front in the war is likely to raise questions in Israel about 'the viability of the operations and the way the government is conducting its war'. She expects Israel to retaliate to this attack, as seen in previous instances when Yemen joined the battle.

The conflict between Iran and Israel has taken a dangerous turn with the entry of Houthi forces from Yemen, who have launched a salvo of ballistic missiles at sensitive Israeli military sites. The Houthis, close allies of Iran, have vowed to continue their military operations until the 'aggression' comes to an end on all fronts.In response, Israel has reported intercepting one missile originating from Yemen. The escalation has raised concerns about the potential for a wider regional conflict, with Pakistan attempting to host a meeting of Middle Eastern powers to find a regional approach to ending the conflict.The entry of the Houthis poses a direct threat to the Bab al-Mandab strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, a critical choke point for energy supplies and trade. A shutdown of this strait, combined with Iran's near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, would have a devastating impact on the global economy.The conflict has also seen an escalation in the array of weapons being used, with reports of the US dropping cluster munitions and Iran using ballistic missiles carrying cluster warheads. Experts have cited concerns about the indiscriminate nature of these weapons, which have been banned by over 100 countries.The situation remains volatile, with US President Donald Trump suggesting that he had hoped for Saudi Arabia to join other Arab countries in normalizing relations with Israel in return for the attack on Iran. However, the survival of the Islamic Republic's regime after a month of bombing has left Trump with the choice of either extricating the US from the costly war or intensifying the campaign.