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Donald Trump announced over the weekend that he wants to "take the oil in Iran" by seizing control of Kharg Island, the strategic outpost through which roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow. Experts say the remark underscores a blatant disregard for international law and exemplifies what they term “fossil‑fuel imperialism.” Patrick Bigger, co‑director of the Transition Security Project, described the approach as a "might‑makes‑right" logic that is both "abhorrent and spectacularly miscalculated." Trump is slated to give an update on the Iran‑U.S. conflict on Wednesday. He previously claimed the war could end within weeks, a statement that sent the stock market soaring on expectations of de‑escalation. Iran, however, has insisted it needs guarantees against future attacks before halting its counter‑offensive. The fighting continues, highlighted by an Iranian strike on a fully loaded crude tanker in Dubai and threats to "blow up and completely obliterate" Iran’s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened promptly. Kharg Island, a five‑mile strip that handles the bulk of Iran’s oil shipments, along with its power plants and oil wells, has been singled out by Trump. He told the Financial Times that U.S. forces should take over the island and the oil stored there. "My favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran," Trump said, adding that critics in the United States are "stupid people." Amir Handjani, an energy lawyer at the Quincy Institute, warned that the statement "completely discredited" the war’s stated objectives and revealed a classic play for natural resources. Handjani noted that Trump’s desire to seize Iranian oil is not new; he voiced similar ambitions in a 1988 interview while promoting The Art of the Deal, saying he would "do a number on Kharg Island" if elected. The former president has also floated comparable ideas for Iraq, Syria and Venezuela, suggesting the United States could appropriate their oil to offset war costs or bolster strategic reserves. Handjani emphasized that international law provides no framework for waging war to capture sovereign nations' natural resources. From a military perspective, taking Kharg Island would be extremely challenging. Iranian missile defenses have rendered regional U.S. bases inoperable, meaning any assault would likely require a parachute insertion of Marines into heavy fire, with the risk of massive Iranian retaliation. Handjani warned that such retaliation could target oil export terminals across the Persian Gulf, potentially driving crude prices to $200‑$300 per barrel and destabilising the global economy. The conflict has already caused the largest-ever disruption to global energy supplies, killing thousands and sparking sharp fuel‑price shocks. While consumers bear the brunt, major fossil‑fuel companies are enjoying windfall profits. Bigger noted that higher oil prices benefit oil majors and are being used as a pretext to expand U.S. drilling, further entrenching reliance on carbon‑intensive fuels. According to Bigger, Trump’s rhetoric reveals a belief that "fossil fuels are a linchpin of his domestic industrial strategy," and that controlling oil equates to controlling global power. He argues that this mindset threatens the international order and hampers the transition to cleaner energy.

Israel has unleashed a significant military operation against Iran, launching two waves of attacks on Tehran and killing a senior Hezbollah commander. The attacks have escalated tensions in the region, with Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, denying claims of a ceasefire request.US President Donald Trump has claimed that Iran's leadership is seeking a ceasefire, but Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson has denied this, calling Trump's account 'false and baseless'.The conflict has resulted in at least 1,900 people killed and 20,000 injured in Iran, according to estimates from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent societies. The Israeli military has also reported that 10 of its soldiers have been killed since fighting broke out on the Lebanese front.The attacks have had significant economic implications, with the strait of Hormuz effectively closed to oil and gas tankers and other merchant shipping since the beginning of the conflict, hiking oil prices and causing critical shortages around the world.Iran's president has written to Americans, asking which of their interests are being served by this war, and stating that Iranians 'harbor no enmity towards other nations, including the people of America'. The conflict continues to escalate, with further waves of attacks reported across the densely populated centre of Israel.

An American journalist has been kidnapped in Baghdad by a suspected Iranian-backed Iraqi armed group, the US said, as regional security deteriorates after the US-Israeli attack on Iran. The state department said it was working to ensure the American’s release 'as soon as possible'. “An individual with ties to the Iranian-aligned militia group Kataib Hezballah believed to be involved in the kidnapping has been taken into custody by Iraqi authorities,” Dylan Johnson, the assistant secretary of state for global public affairs, wrote on X. Iraq said that authorities intercepted a vehicle that overturned as they tried to flee. “Security forces were able to arrest one of the suspects and seize one of the vehicles used in the crime,” the Iraqi interior ministry said in a statement. The journalist was identified as Shelly Kittleson, a freelancer, by media advocacy groups as well as Al-Monitor, one of the news outlets for which she worked. Kittleson is a longtime freelancer in the region, reporting extensively from Syria and Iraq. Al-Monitor in a statement said it was “deeply alarmed” by Kittleson’s kidnapping and called for her “safe and immediate release”. “We stand by her vital reporting from the region and call for her swift return to continue her important work,” the news organisation said. The US has warned Americans of rising risks in Iraq, where Iran has sway over several Shia armed groups, after the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February. Johnson said that the state department had “fulfilled our duty” to warn the journalist about threats and reiterated a warning for Americans to leave Iraq.

FIFA President Gianni Infantino declared on Tuesday that Iran will fulfill its World Cup 2026 fixtures in the United States as originally planned, reinforcing the governing body’s commitment to a schedule that includes all qualified teams. The Iranian Football Federation had earlier announced that it was negotiating with FIFA to shift its group‑stage matches from U.S. venues to Mexico, citing safety concerns stemming from the war involving the United States and Israel that began on February 28. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum offered her country’s readiness to host Iran’s first‑round games if a relocation became necessary, highlighting regional solidarity. According to the tournament draw, Iran’s Group G campaign will open in Los Angeles on June 15 against New Zealand, followed by a clash with Belgium in the same city on June 21, and a final group match versus Egypt in Seattle on June 27. The war’s outbreak had cast doubt on Iran’s participation, prompting Infantino to address concerns during halftime of Iran’s friendly against Costa Rica in Turkey. He told AFP, “Iran will be at the World Cup… That’s why we’re here,” and praised the team’s quality. Infantino also referenced assurances allegedly given by former U.S. President Donald Trump that the Iranian squad would be welcome, though Trump later warned that the team should not travel “for their own life and safety.” Iran responded firmly, stating that “no one can exclude Iran’s national team from the World Cup.” In a March 19 online FIFA Council meeting, Infantino reaffirmed the organization’s stance: “FIFA is committed to ensuring the World Cup proceeds as scheduled with all teams participating,” adding that football can serve as a bridge for peace even when geopolitical conflicts lie beyond its control. Iran’s recent friendly against Nigeria in Belek, Turkey, featured players wearing black armbands and carrying school rucksacks to honor victims of a tragic air strike on a primary school in Minab on February 28, which killed at least 170 people. The New York Times reported that a U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile mistakenly hit the school, according to preliminary military findings. These gestures underscore the intersection of sport and geopolitics, as the global football community strives to maintain the tournament’s integrity while acknowledging the human cost of ongoing conflicts.

Amid the escalating United States‑Israel confrontation with Iran, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has emerged as an unexpected voice on financial strategy, posting a series of warnings on X that market‑moving headlines are often engineered to trigger profit‑taking. Ghalibaf’s core advice is simple yet provocative: if a headline inflates prices, bet against it; if it drags prices down, go long. He describes pre‑market news bursts as a “reverse indicator” designed to manipulate investors. His posts are laced with sarcasm, referencing alleged manipulation of oil futures and even joking about turning rhetoric into “actual fuel at the pump.” Behind the humor, analysts say, lies a calculated effort to exploit the overlap between digital propaganda and real‑world conflict. The backdrop to Ghalibaf’s messaging is Iran’s use of asymmetric warfare, notably the brief shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments pass. The closure sent crude prices soaring and heightened economic pressure worldwide, underscoring Tehran’s ability to influence U.S. markets by targeting critical supply routes. On March 22, Ghalibaf warned financial institutions that support U.S. military financing in the Middle East, declaring that U.S. Treasury bonds are “soaked in Iranians’ blood” and that their portfolios were under surveillance. Economist Jo Michell of the University of the West of England observes that falling equity markets, rising energy costs, and higher interest rates could eventually force President Donald Trump to seek a diplomatic exit from the conflict. Michell notes that Trump often delivers his most aggressive statements over weekends when markets are closed, only to retreat before the opening bell—a pattern traders have dubbed TACO (“Trump always chickens out”). Indeed, when Trump’s original 48‑hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz loomed, he extended it by five days and later pledged a further 10‑day pause on attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure, actions that analysts interpret as deliberate market signaling. Middle‑East specialist Zeidon Alkinani explains that the conflict’s volatility creates new leverage points beyond direct price manipulation. Even light‑hearted rhetoric from officials like Ghalibaf can exacerbate market instability, as investors scramble for any hint of the war’s trajectory. In this environment, uncertainty itself becomes a powerful market driver. Alkinani stresses that the significance of the Strait of Hormuz now extends beyond physical oil flow disruptions; it reshapes investor expectations and amplifies the impact of digital messaging, especially given Trump’s high‑visibility online presence. Overall, Ghalibaf’s social‑media campaign illustrates how Tehran is blending military pressure with information warfare, turning market sentiment into an additional front of the broader geopolitical struggle.

Beirut, Lebanon – On 24 March, Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi announced that Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mohammad Reza Sheibani, was declared persona non grata and ordered to depart by 29 March. Two days after the deadline, the envoy remained in Beirut, refusing to leave. The episode unfolds against a broader conflict that has already claimed more than 1,000 lives and displaced over 1.2 million people within a single month of Israeli military action in Lebanon. It also highlights a deepening schism in Lebanese politics between supporters of the pro‑Iranian Shia militia Hezbollah and those demanding its disarmament. Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University, told Al Jazeera that the ambassador’s defiance is a symptom of a larger contest over legitimacy and authority. IRGC’s Strategic Role Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) helped forge Hezbollah in 1982 as a response to Israel’s invasion. Over the decades, Tehran’s billions of dollars in funding elevated Hezbollah to Lebanon’s most powerful political and military force. Hezbollah’s popularity peaked in 2000 after driving Israeli forces from south Lebanon, but subsequent engagements—including the 2006 war, the 2008 Beirut street battles, the Syrian civil war, and the 2019 domestic protests—have eroded its broader support. When Hezbollah entered open conflict with Israel on 8 October 2023, it enjoyed limited backing beyond the Shia community. By the November 2024 cease‑fire, the group was at a low point, with Israel having killed more than 4,000 Lebanese, including leader Hassan Nasrallah and much of Hezbollah’s command. International pressure then mounted for Hezbollah’s disarmament, prompting Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun to prioritize the issue. According to several analysts, the IRGC exploited the cease‑fire lull to dispatch officials to Lebanon, restructuring Hezbollah’s command and possibly ordering its re‑entry into the war on 2 March—just days after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated. Prime Minister Salam has publicly claimed the IRGC is “managing the military operation in Lebanon” and even accused Tehran of launching an attack on Cyprus. Ambassador Refuses to Exit In response to the perceived IRGC influence, Raggi’s declaration stripped Sheibani of diplomatic immunity. Dania Arayssi, senior analyst at the New Lines Institute, described the move as a “landmark decision” given Iran’s entrenched role in Lebanese politics. Iran’s Foreign Ministry, however, maintains that Sheibani will not depart, and Hezbollah has openly pledged to protect him, warning that any government attempt to disarm the militia will be met with “punishment.” Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri—longtime Hezbollah ally—initially backed the government’s ban on Hezbollah’s military activity after the March re‑entry, illustrating the fluidity of alliances within Lebanon’s power‑sharing system. State Authority Tested Hezbollah’s renewed campaign, which includes dozens of cross‑border attacks and direct engagements with Israeli forces on Lebanese soil, is reshaping the political calculus. The militia’s revived confidence challenges the Lebanese government’s ability to enforce disarmament. While the ambassador remains protected inside the Iranian diplomatic compound—effectively beyond the reach of Lebanese law—critics argue that Tehran’s refusal to honor the expulsion order undermines the state’s authority, already weakened by months of war. Salamey summed up the dilemma: “The state is asserting its authority on paper, but internal divisions and competing claims of legitimacy constrain its practical power, testing the limits of Lebanon’s fragile power‑sharing arrangement.”

Qatar’s foreign ministry announced that Iran’s recent assaults have crossed numerous red lines and stressed the urgent need for de‑escalation amid the ongoing US‑Israel war with Tehran.During a Tuesday press briefing, spokesperson Majed al‑Ansari warned that Iranian attacks on Qatar are having a catastrophic impact on bilateral relations.Al‑Ansari appealed to every combatant to refrain from targeting nuclear or energy infrastructure, cautioning that any further escalation will mean more losses for all parties.Since the joint US‑Israel offensive began at the end of February, Iran has struck a string of regional states—including Iraq, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan and Kuwait—despite none being directly involved in the conflict.While Tehran maintains that its operations target only U.S. assets in the region, the affected nations report damage to civilian infrastructure such as airports, power plants and ports, alongside civilian casualties.Qatar, a longtime mediator in Middle‑East disputes, clarified that it is not part of Pakistan’s diplomatic effort to end the war, though it continues “ongoing communications with all parties, including mediators and other regional players.” The Qatari side added that it fully supports Pakistan’s peace initiative and hopes it will yield lasting stability.In recent developments, Pakistan hosted a four‑nation dialogue with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to discuss ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Together with China, Pakistan unveiled a five‑point initiative calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities, protection of sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iran and Gulf states, safety of non‑military targets, secure shipping lanes—including the strategic Strait of Hormuz—and a durable peace grounded in the United Nations charter and international law.U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated that while diplomatic channels remain active, the United States is keeping the option of military escalation on the table.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Tehran has been exchanging messages with the United States, either directly or via regional partners, as the US‑Israel war on Iran continues. He emphasized that these contacts do not constitute formal negotiations. "I receive messages from US special envoy Steve Witkoff directly, as before, and this does not mean that we are in negotiations," Araghchi said. He added that all communications are routed through the Foreign Ministry or security agencies, and there is no truth to claims of active talks with any US party. Reflecting on past diplomatic experience, Araghchi recalled a previous agreement—referring to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—that the United States later abandoned. "We do not have any faith that negotiations with the US will yield results; the trust level is at zero," he asserted. President Masoud Pezeshkian echoed the skepticism, stating that the US "does not believe in diplomacy" after Iran was attacked twice during prior negotiations. In a phone call with European Council President Antonio Costa, Pezeshkian said Iran possesses the "necessary will" to end the war, but insists on guarantees to prevent further aggression. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth countered, saying Washington aims to secure a deal that would end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, yet remains prepared to "negotiate with bombs" if needed. Addressing the strategic waterway, Araghchi noted that the strait lies within Oman’s and Iran’s territorial waters and can be used strategically. "Only for the ships of those who are at war with us, this strait is closed. That is normal during war," he explained, adding that some nations avoid the route due to security concerns and high insurance costs, while others have negotiated access. He warned that any post‑war arrangement for the strait will be decided jointly by Oman and Iran, with the potential to transform it into a "peaceful waterway." Regarding rumors of a possible US ground operation, Araghchi said Tehran is unafraid: "We are waiting for them. I don’t think they’d dare to do such a thing. There will be a lot of strength waiting for them." He affirmed Iran’s readiness to repel any ground attack. The foreign minister clarified that Iran has neither responded to nor submitted any counter‑proposals to the US 15‑point plan aimed at ending the war. The proposal, according to earlier reports, calls for Iran to renounce the acquisition of nuclear weapons and to limit its missile stockpile in range and quantity. Araghchi concluded that Iran will only accept an end to all attacks in the region, not merely a ceasefire, underscoring the country's firm stance amid ongoing hostilities.

Coordinated strikes by United States and Israeli forces hit Tehran, Isfahan and several other Iranian cities on Tuesday, prompting widespread power outages and extensive damage to civilian sites. The Ministry of Energy confirmed that shrapnel from the raids ruptured a primary power‑transfer line, but the outage was restored within a few hours. Among the most critical targets was the Tofigh Darou pharmaceutical complex in the Karaj industrial zone. The facility, which supplies over 90% of Iran’s domestically produced medicines—including cancer and multiple‑sclerosis treatments—sustained heavy damage from multiple projectiles. In central Iran, Isfahan endured a barrage of heavy bunker‑buster bombs over a nearby mountainous area, likely aimed at military installations. The explosions triggered secondary blasts that illuminated the night sky and produced reverberating shockwaves across the city. North‑west of Tehran, in Zanjan, a building identified as the administrative department of the Hosseinieh Azam religious centre was struck, resulting in at least four fatalities and several injuries. Iranian authorities now claim that more than 2,000 people have been killed by US‑Israeli attacks since the conflict erupted on 28 February, with residential blocks, schools, hospitals and historic sites also affected. Additional targets this week included civilian nuclear facilities, major steel producers, petrochemical plants, and the Iran University of Science and Technology, where an imaging satellite was developed. A professor linked to Iran’s missile programme and his two children were assassinated at their home in northern Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated threats to strike Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure, power plants and water‑desalination facilities. Despite the onslaught, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to project defiance. A spokesperson for the Khatam al‑Anbiya Central Headquarters declared that Tehran’s adversaries are “humiliated and on the path of destruction,” while senior commander Ali Fadavi warned that American warships are vulnerable and allegedly transmit false transponder signals. The IRGC also released footage of ballistic missiles aimed at Israel and surrounding nations, and claimed to have downed two U.S. MQ‑9 Reaper drones, promising retaliatory strikes against technology firms linked to the United States and Israel. Domestically, the judiciary announced the execution of two members of the foreign‑based Mojahedin‑e‑Khalq (MEK) group, labeling them terrorists. This follows a series of recent executions tied to the January protests and broader dissent. Authorities also issued new indictments against roughly 200 individuals accused of assisting the U.S. and Israel, including alleged “mercenaries” who disseminated strike footage abroad. Penalties for national‑security offenses now encompass asset confiscation and capital punishment. President Masoud Pezeshkian convened his first cabinet meeting since the war’s onset in a makeshift, blue‑covered space, emphasizing that any peace negotiations will safeguard Iran’s “dignity, security and national interests.” Israel’s Channel 14 reported that Pezeshkian sought greater negotiating leverage with the United States, a request allegedly rebuffed by IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi.